As the gap between Mahmud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh widens in favor of the former, a majority supports continuation of the current ceasefire between Hamas and Israel and prefers peace negotiations to free Palestinian prisoners but shows little confidence in diplomacy and supports kidnapping of Israeli soldiers in order to exchange them with Palestinian prisoners 28-30 August 2008 These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 28 and 30 August 2008. This period witnessed a relative consolidation of the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip and the release by Israel of about 200 Palestinian prisoners as a gesture to President Mahmud Abbas. The poll examines the following topics: the domestic balance of power, the performance and legitimacy of two governments, that of Ismail Haniyeh and Salam Fayyad, the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip, and the peace process. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org. Main Findings: Findings of the third quarter of 2008 indicate continued slow decline in Hamas’s popularity while Fateh’s popularity remains stable as it was during the second quarter. Similarly, findings show a slightly wider gap between the popularity of President Abbas compared to that of Ismail Haniyeh in favor of the former. Positive evaluation of the conditions of Palestinians in the West Bank remains higher than that of conditions in the Gaza Strip. This applies to overall conditions as well as those of democracy and human rights. Findings show also significant opposition to Hamas’s military entry into Shijaiah in the Gaza Strip in early August. They also show widespread belief that the term of President Abbas ends in the first month of January 2009, as Hamas claims, and not in the first month of 2010, as the presidency claims. Findings also indicate an overwhelming support for the continuation of the current ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip despite recognition of many that it will not lead to the opening of the Rafah Crossing with Egypt. Despite the support for the ceasefire, about two thirds also support kidnapping of Israeli soldiers in order to exchange them with Palestinian prisoners. It was expected that the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel would lead to improvement in Hamas’s standing among the public. But the fact that Hamas continues to lose public support might be due to strong opposition to its behavior in dealing with Shijaiah incident which led to several deaths and the escape of several members of the Hillis family to Israel. Moreover, the fact that the Rafah crossing remained closed since the ceasefire and that the other crossings were only partially opened might have weakened Hamas’s appeal. On the other hand, findings show an improvement in the perception of security and safety in the West Bank which might have been responsible in part for the improvement in Abbas’s standing. Moreover, Israel’s release of about 200 Palestinian prisoners at the end of August might have also played in Abbas’s favor. 1)Domestic Palestinian Conditions
The Gap between the standing of PA President Mahmud Abbas and Hamas’s Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh has increased to 14 percentage points in favor of Abbas. If new presidential elections are held today, and the only two candidates were Abbas and Haniyeh, the former would receive the support of 53% and the latter 39%. This finding represents a slight increase in the popularity of Abbas which stood at 52% last June compared to 40% for Haniyeh. Haniyeh’s popularity reached its peak last March, in the aftermath of the breaching of the Rafah border, when it stood at 47% compared to 46% for Abbas. If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former would receive 61% to Haniyeh’s 34%. Level of non-participation in the presidential elections would reach 37% if the competition was between Abbas and Haniyeh and 27% if the competition was between Barghouti and Haniyeh. Satisfaction with the performance of Abbas increases slightly from 46% last June to 48% in this poll. Level of dissatisfaction reaches 47% today. Moreover, the gap between Fateh and Hamas increases from 12 percentage points last June to 14 percentage points in this poll. If new parliamentary elections are to take place today, Hamas would receive 29% (compared to 31% last June) and Fateh would receive 43% (same as in June). Percentage of those who would vote for other factions and parties stands today at 11% and the undecided at 16%. Positive evaluation of the performance of the government of Salam Fayyad remains as it was last June standing at 34% and the negative evaluation at 34%. Similarly, positive evaluation of Haniyeh’s government stands today at 34% and negative evaluation at 39%. Last June, positive evaluation of Haniyeh’s government stood at 37% and negative evaluation at 35%. Today, 33% say Fayyad’s government is the legitimate one while 27% say Haniyeh’s government is the legitimate one. Last June, belief in the legitimacy of the Fayyad government reached 31% compared to 29% for Haniyeh’s. Last March, Haniyeh’s government was perceived as legitimate by 34%. Perception of personal and family security and safety increases in the West Bank from 40% last June to 43% in this poll. But the percentage of personal and family security and safety in the Gaza Strip is higher than in the West Bank as it reaches 54% (compared to 49% in Gaza last June). By contrast, positive evaluation of the overall conditions of Palestinians in the West Bank is higher than in the Gaza Strip, with only 8% describing conditions on the Gaza Strip as good or very good and 27% describing the same conditions in the West Bank and good or very good. Last June, positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip stood at 5% compared to 25% in the West Bank. Similarly, 34% give a positive evaluation of the status of democracy in the West Bank while only 24% describe the same conditions in the Gaza Strip as good or very good. An overwhelming majority (69%) opposes Hamas’s armed entry into the Shijaiah neighborhood in the Gaza Strip (an event that led to several deaths and the escape of several members of Hillis family to Israel) while only 20% support it. Support for Hamas’s action increases in the Gaza Strip, reaching 35% compared to 12% in the West Bank. The wide gap in support between the two areas might reflect a greater Hamas media influence in Gaza Strip compared to the West Bank. Indeed, our findings show that 21% in the Gaza Strip watch Hamas’s satellite TV station, al Aqsa, compared to only 6% in the West Bank. Moreover, support for Hamas’s action in Shijaiah increases in refugee camps (27%) compared to villages and towns (16%), among men (25%) compared to women (16%), among those who identify themselves as religious (23%) compared to those who identify themselves as somewhat religious (17%), among those opposed to the peace process (41%) compared to supporters of the peace process (16%), among supporters of Hamas (53%) compared to supporters of Fateh (5%), among refugees (25%) compared to non refugees (16%), among those who hold a BA degree (24%) compared to those how hold a preparatory certificate (13%), among those with the least income (25%) compared to those with the highest income (15%), and among those whose age is between 18-22 years old (26%) compared to those whose age is over 52 years (17%). 23% believe that Fateh is responsible for the Gaza explosion that led to the death of five Hamas members last June while 43% believe it was not responsible; 33% say they do not know. A majority of 63% believes that Abbas term as president ends in January 2009, as Hamas claims (i.e., four years after he was elected), while only 23% believe that his term extends to five years ending in January 2010, as the presidency claims. Belief that the president’s term ends in January 2009 increases among those who oppose the peace process (74%) compared to those who support the peace process (59%), among supporters of Hamas (79%) compared to supporters of Fateh (52%), among those who hold a BA degree (69%) compared to illiterates (40%), among students (71%) compared to employees (56%), and among those whose age is between 18-22 years old (67%) compared to those whose age is over 52 years (56%). 2)Ceasefire and Prisoners’ Exchange
Findings show that 81% of the Palestinians support and 15% oppose the continuation of the current ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. It is worth noting that our June 2008 poll found that 78% supported and 21% opposed a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. But we also found at that time that support was very low (23%) to a ceasefire that was restricted to the Gaza Strip and did not include the West Bank. Support was even lower (20%) for an agreement that did not allow for the opening of the crossings, particularly the Rafah crossing. Findings of the current poll indicate that 49% of the Palestinians believe that if the ceasefire continues, it will lead to the opening of the Rafah crossing and 42% believe it will not. Despite the fact that the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel was restricted to the Gaza Strip and did not allow for a normal functioning of the Rafah crossing, a majority of 60% describes Hamas’s performance in the ceasefire negotiations as good or very good while only 28% view it as bad or very bad. Findings show that three quarters of the Palestinians believe that the prisoners’ exchange agreement between Hezbollah and Israel was a victory for Hezbollah while only 7% view it as a victory for Israel. But the percentage of those who believe that a prisoners’ exchange agreement between Hamas and Israel will be a victory for Hamas does not exceed 46% and 26% believe it will be a victory for Israel. A majority of 59% believes that the best way to free Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails is by reaching a peace agreement that includes their release while 39% believe the best way is by kidnapping Israeli soldiers and exchanging them with Palestinian prisoners. But when asked about the lessons learned from the experience of the kidnapping of the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, the overwhelming majority (74%) says it supports and only 21% say it opposes kidnapping of soldiers to exchange them with Palestinian and Arab prisoners. In other words, despite the preference for diplomacy, the majority shows little confidence in its viability and opts instead for non-diplomatic means. Belief that the best way to release Palestinian prisoners is by reaching a peace agreement increases in villages and towns (62%) compared to refugee camps (53%), among women (64%) compared to men (53%), among supporters of the peace process (68%) compared to those who are opposed to the peace process (21%), among supporters of Fateh (77%) compared to supporters of Hamas (32%), among holders of preparatory certificate (68%) compared to holders of BA degree (48%), among farmers (71%) and housewives (66%) compared to students (52%), and among private sector employees (59%) compared to public sector employees (47%). 3)Peace Process
Findings show that a Palestinian majority (57%) supports a mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people after the establishment of a Palestinian state and the resolution of all issues of the conflict. Opposition to this mutual recognition stands at 41%. These figures are almost identical to those obtained last June. Findings also show that two thirds (68%) of the public support and 30% oppose the Saudi Initiative. The Initiative calls for an Israeli withdrawal from all Arab territories occupied since 1967 and the establishment of a Palestinian state and for reaching a just and agreed upon solution to the refugee problem based on UN resolution number 194. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders and will sign peace treaties and establish normal diplomatic relations with it. These findings are almost identical to those obtained last June. Findings also show that a large majority of 70% supports reconciliation between the two peoples after reaching a peace agreement between the two sides and after the establishment of a Palestinian state recognized by Israel. Opposition to reconciliation stands at 28%. In this context, support for open borders and free movement of individuals and goods between the two states reaches 84%. Support for the establishment of joint economic institutions and ventures reaches 71%. Support for the establishment of joint political institutions, such as a parliament, with the ultimate goal of creating a confederation between the two states reaches 41%. Support for taking legal measures against incitement against Israel reaches 36%, and support for adopting a school curriculum that recognizes Israel and teaches school children not to demand return of all Palestine to the Palestinians reaches 13%. In the context of reconciliation, 32% say that they would invite an Israeli colleague to their homes and an identical percentage says it would accept an invitation from an Israeli colleague to visit his or her home. Despite support for reconciliation, a large percentage of 43% believes that reconciliation is not possible ever. Moreover, 69% believe that chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state within the next five years are low or non existent while only 28% say the chances are high or medium. More than three quarters (76%) believe that the negotiations unleashed by the Annapolis conference will fail in ending Israeli occupation while only 12% believe it will succeed. In the same context, 74% believe that it is impossible to reach a compromise permanent agreement with the government of Ehud Olmert and 64% say that Olmert-Abbas meetings are not beneficial and should be stopped. To View the Full Result as PDF (386 KB)
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By: PCPO
Date: 24/11/2020
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Poll # 206: (81 %) of the Palestinians do not – to various degrees – trust the commitments of Israel and its obligations to the agreements signed with the Palestinian Authority
The latest poll on the Palestinian public opinion prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali revealed the following:
Beit Sahour –Public Relations’ Section: The latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (www.pcpo.org) during the period 19 – 22 November 2020 covered a random sample of (516) Palestinian respondents representing the various demographic specimens of Palestinians (18 years and above) living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. It revealed that the Palestinians are almost split between agreeing to and opposing the return of the relations with Israel and the resumption of the security coordination with it, albeit the opposition scale outweighs a little. This poll, Dr. Kukali said, focuses mainly on the decision of the Palestinian Authority to resume the relations with Israel that are terminated since 5/9/2020 in response to the intention of the Israeli government to annex about 30 % of the area of the West Bank with full support of the US administration under President Donald Trump. Dr. Kukali further noted that the motivation to take this courageous step by the Palestinian Authority was a letter from the Israeli government addressed to the PA confirming its willingness to abide by all the agreements signed with the PA. Dr. Kukali added that the majority of the Palestinian people, in this poll, expressed however their mistrust of Israel’s intentions, as its actions on the ground speak another language. Nevertheless, the Palestinian people are still hopeful that they will have one day their own independent and sovereign State of Palestine with East Jerusalem it’s capital. Dr. N. Kukali, President and founder of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, said the details of the key results of this poll are as follows: Trusting Israel Responding to the question: “What is the extent of your trust to Israel’s commitments and its obligations to the agreements previously signed with the Palestinian Authority?” (71 %) said “I’m not so sure”, (10 %) said “I’m not sure at all”, (9 %) “somewhat sure”, (6 %) “quite sure” and (4 %) said “I don’t know”. Return of the relations with Israel With regard to the question: “Do you agree to the return of the relations with Israel to their former status as they have been before 5/19/2020, or not?” (59 %) said “I oppose”, (38 %) “agree”, and (3 %) said “I don’t know”. Reasons of agreeing to the return of the relations with Israel In respect of the question: “What are the reasons that let you agree to the return of the relations with Israel?”, (5.6 %) said “crisis of the salary payment of employees”, (4.4 %) said “security stability and calm”, (26.9 %) said “improvement of the economic situation”, (9.4 %) “peace and stability”, (16.9 %) “permits and work in Israel”, (2.5 %) “the clearance funds”, (3.8 %) “permits to the hospitals and admission of patients for treatment”, (3.8 %) “facilitation of livelihood”, (8.8 %) said “lifting the siege from Gaza and opening the border-crossings”, (6.9 %) “due to the life connected with Israel”, (7.5 %) “for serving the citizens” and (3.5 %) “no reason”. Security coordination with Israel (55 %) of the Palestinians oppose the resumption of the security coordination with Israel, whilst (40 %) agree to it, and (5 %) declined to respond. Resumption of the peace negotiations (52 %) of the Palestinian public oppose the resumption of the peace negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and Israel at present, whilst (43 %) of them agree to it and (5 %) declined to respond. The economic situation (61 %) of the Palestinian public assessed their economic situation at present as “bad”, (32 %) as “fair” (middle) and only (7 %) as “good”. Survey overview Dr. Nabil Kukali, said that the data for this survey has been collected by using CATI, an effective method for data collection in quantitative researches conducted by phone. By this method, questions are addressed to respondents from a previously designed questionnaire. The survey sample is randomly taken in accordance with a long experienced methodology applied by PCPO covering (516) respondents, (311) are from the West Bank and (205) from Gaza Strip. Dr. Kukali has further indicated that the margin of error was (±4.38 %) at a significance level of (95.0%). The sample allotment with respect to the residential areas was as follows: (60.3 %) in the West Bank, incl. Eastern Jerusalem and (39.7 %) in Gaza Strip. The average age of the respondents was (32.4) years.
By: PCPO
Date: 24/06/2020
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(55.5%) believe that the decision of the Palestinian Authority to end the security and civil coordination with Israel was a right decision
The latest poll on the Palestinian public opinion prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali revealed the following:
The latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (www.pcpo.org) during the period from June 14-22, 2020 covered a random sample of (1250) Palestinian respondents representing the various demographic specimens of Palestinians (18 years and above) living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. It revealed that (55.5 %) of the Palestinian public believe that the decision of the Palestinian Authority to end the security and civil coordination with Israel was a right decision. Dr. Nabil Kukali, President and founder of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, said that the suspension of the security and civil coordination came as response to the Israeli position, that is supported by President Tramp to annex vast regions of the West Bank that makes up around (30 %) of the area of the West Bank, including the Jordan Valley region, the region north of the Dead Sea and the settlements to its sovereignty, the matter that the Palestinians consider as ultimate undermining of the opportunity to establish their own independent state. Dr. Kukali further added that the poll results unveil that there is a fear of deterioration of the economic and living conditions in the Palestinian Territories as well as the mutual cooperation in restricting the spread of the corona-virus (COVID-19). Dr. Kukali said the details of the key results of this poll are as follows: Cessation of the Coordination as a Right Decision (55.5 %) of the Palestinian public believe that the decision of the Palestinian Authority to end the security and civil coordination with Israel was a right decision; (49.1 %) of them are residents of the West Bank, and (65 %) residents of Gaza Strip, whilst (44.5 %) of the Palestinians, (50.9 %) of them in the West Bank and (35 %) in Gaza Strip, believe that the decision was wrong. The results in detail further reveal that the governorates with the positive attitude towards the decision are in the West Bank in the following order: Al-Bireh & Ramallah (81.8 %), Jerusalem (62.8 %), Jericho (55.6 %), Hebron (52.9 %), Salfit (52.2 %), Nablus (43.3 %), Toubas (37.5 %), Toulkarem (37.3 %), Jenin (34 %), Qalqilia (27.8 %) and Bethlehem with (15.9 %) the least positive attitude. On the other hand, the governorates with the negative attitude towards the decision are in the West Bank in the following order: Bethlehem (84.1 %), followed by Qalqilia (72.2 %), Jenin (66 %), Toulkarem (62.7 %), Toubas (62.5 %), Salfit (47.8 %), Nablus (56.6 %), Hebron (47.1 %), Jericho (44.4 %), Jerusalem (37.2 %) and Ramallah (18.8 %). In Gaza Strip, the governorates with the positive attitude towards the PA decision are in the following order: Rafah (78.1 %), followed by Deir al-Balah (75.9 %), Gaza City (63.9 %), Khan Younis (61.1 %) and North Gaza (54.9 %). Cessation of the Coordination and the Economic Situation Responding to the question:” Do you think that the cessation of the security and civil coordination with Israel will improve the economic and living conditions of the Palestinian people or rather worsen them ?, (18.7 %) said “will improve them”, (52.3 %) “will worsen them”, (15.8 %) “will have no effect” and (13.2 %) said “I don’t know”. Cessation of the Coordination and the Restriction of Corona-virus (COVID-19) With regard to the question:” In view of the coordination between the Palestinian Authority and Israel on restricting COVID-19, do you think that ending the security and civil coordination between them would negatively affect this COVID-19 coordination, or not ?, (48.7 %) said “will negatively affect”, (21.7 %) said “will remain unchanged” and (29.6 %) have no opinion. Will the Cessation of the Coordination impede the Annexation of Jordan Valley and the Settlements ? In respect of the question:” Some people in the Palestinian Territories believe that ending the security and civil coordination between the PA and Israel will impede the Israeli annexation of vast areas of the West Bank (Jordan Valley and the settlements) by Israel, while others believe that it will boost the annexation of these areas by Israel. Which of these two opinions is closer to yours ?, “(28.1 %) said “it will impede Israel”, (35.1 %) “it will encourage Israel to annex these areas”, (26.5 %) “the decision of the PA will have no effect on the annexation” and (10.3 %) said “I don’t know”. Seriousness of the Palestinian Authority Responding to the question:”Up to which extent do you believe that the PA will adhere to its decision of terminating the security and civil coordination with Israel ?”, (12.5 %) said “to a great extent”, (37 %) “to a fair extent”, (35.3 %) “to a little extent” and (15.2 %) have no opinion. The Need for Civil Coordination With respect of the question addressed to the West Bank respondents:”If you were in need for a coordination or for getting a job, or going to a hospital in Israel, would you go to the bureaus of the Israeli civil administration or to the Palestinian liaison bureaus “, (22 %) said “I would go to the bureaus of the Israeli civil administration”, whilst (56.6 %) said they “would go to the Palestinian liaison bureaus”, and (21.4 %) said “ I don’t know”. Methodology of the Survey Study in the Palestinian Territories Dr. Nabil Kukali, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the respondents' homes. The choices were randomly taken in accordance with a long experienced methodology applied by PCPO from a total of (180) sites, (135) are from the West Bank and (45) from Gaza Strip. Dr. Kukali has further indicated that the margin of error was (±2.77 %) at a significance level of (95.0%). He added that the rate of the female respondents in this survey was (49.6%) against (50.4%) male respondents. The sample allotment with respect to the residential areas was as follows: (63.0 %) in the West Bank, incl. Eastern Jerusalem and (37.0 %) in Gaza Strip. The average age of the respondents was (31.5) years. For following up the most recent polls of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, please revert to our website: www.pcpo.org
By: JMCC
Date: 24/06/2020
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Poll No. 96 - COVID-19 and Israeli Annexation
Israeli annexation would undermine the two-state solution A public opinion poll conducted by the Jerusalem Media and Communication Centre (JMCC) in cooperation with Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, showed that if Israel goes through with its threats to annex parts of the West Bank, this would have a negative impact on the two-state solution. 45.3% of respondents said annexation would not leave any chance for the two-state solution, while 20.4% said there was a small chance for it and 22.6% who have the opinion that a two state solution will still be possible if the annexation plan goes through. In regards to the Palestinian leadership’s response to annexation by withdrawing from signed agreements with Israel, 53.9% of respondents said the leadership would renege on this position, while 26.6% said they would adhere to it. One year after the government’s formation, the public is satisfied with its performance Almost one year after the formation of Dr. Mohammed Shtayyeh’s government, the majority of those polled, 71.6%, said they were satisfied with its performance, while 28.4% said they were dissatisfied. In general, 44.3% said the performance of this government has improved, and 10.7% said its performance has become worse, while 45% said it has not changed. As terms of security, 37.3% said they felt security and internal security has improved while 40.8% said it has not changed after the new government and 21.9% of respondents said their sense of security has deteriorated. The people want elections and Shtayyeh has the best chance at winning Elections continue to be a major popular demand. The poll showed that the majority of respondents, 79%, believe it is important to hold legislative elections, while 15.8% said it was not important. Furthermore, the majority, 83% said it was important to hold presidential elections, while 13% said this was not important. If elections were held today and President Mahmoud Abbas was not running, the person who would have the best chance at winning would be Mohammed Shtayyeh, according to 11.5% of those polled, followed by Marwan Barghouthi, at 6.8% and then Ismail Haniyeh at 3.6% while the percentage of those who didn’t know was 63.4%. As for the chances of success for parties and factions if legislative elections are held, the percentage of those who said they would vote for Fatah dropped to 29.9% in this poll from 35.6% in August, 2019. Likewise, the percentage of those who said they would vote for Hamas dropped to 5.5% from 12.3% in August of last year. This drop in the percentage of votes for the two major parties could be attributed to the noticeable rise in the percentage of those who said they would not vote for anyone, which was 39.7% in this poll, up from 34.5% in August, 2019. Furthermore, the percentage of those who said they do not know who they would vote for rose to 15.2% in this poll from 5.7% in August, 2019. It should be noted that the majority of those polled, 93.3% called for a youth quota in upcoming elections and 85.5% called for a women’s quota. Social security is a popular demand The majority of respondents, 94.6% said having a social security that includes medical insurance, retirement and unemployment benefits was important, while 5.4% said it was not important. The coronavirus pandemic seems to have made people more aware of the need for social security, with the majority of those polled, 84.2% saying that in light of the pandemic, they support a social security law while 15.8% said they opposed it. Low confidence in political leaders President Mahmoud Abbas maintained the largest percentage of people’s trust at 13.3%, followed by Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh at 8.1%, Marwan Barghouthi at 4% and Ismail Haniyeh, who saw a decrease in the level of public trust from 8.3% in August of last year to 3.1% in this poll. Pessimism regarding reconciliation The majority of the public are still pessimistic regarding the possibility of reaching reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas. The poll showed that the majority of respondents, 61.8% do not expect reconciliation to be reached before the end of the year, while 27.1% said they expected it to be reached within this time. Regarding Hamas’ relationship with the PLO, 53.2% of those polled said they believe Hamas should be part of the PLO while 29.8% said it should not. The public is convinced there is corruption and nepotism in PNA institutions The percentage of respondents who believe there is corruption in PNA institutions rose in this poll to 76.3% after it was 71.8% in August of last year. Moreover, 48.3% of respondents said there was considerable nepotism in the provision of public services, with 33.3% saying there was nepotism to some extent, 13% who said there was nepotism to a low extent and only 5.4% who said there was no nepotism at all in the provision of public services. The public’s satisfaction with the performance of the PNA It is apparent that the way in which the coronavirus pandemic was handled and the clear stance against Israeli annexation were two reasons behind the people’s satisfaction with the PNA. The poll showed an improvement in the level of the people’s satisfaction with the performance of the PNA and its president, whereby the percentage of those who were very and somewhat satisfied with the performance of the PNA President was 64.8% in this poll compared to 38.3% in March, 2019 and 52.4% in August, 2015. Similarly, the percentage of those who consider the PNA’s performance as good rose to 68.2% in comparison to 57.5% in July, 2018 and 57.4% in August, 2015. Methodology: A random sample of 1200 people over the age of 18 was interviewed throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip between the 3rd and 9th of June 2020. The interviews were conducted randomly through phone, and the respondents inside each home were also selected randomly according to Kish tables in all governorates of the West Bank as follows: To View the Full Result as PDF
By the Same Author
Date: 24/06/2020
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Public Opinion Poll No (76) - Two-thirds of the public expect Israel to annex the Jordan Valley and the settlement areas in the West Bank and the majority expresses support for the PA policy of ceasing to implement the Oslo agreement
Two-thirds of the public expect Israel to annex the Jordan Valley and the settlement areas in the West Bank and the majority expresses support for the PA policy of ceasing to implement the Oslo agreement and to sever relations with Israel. But large majorities express worry about the likely consequences of the PA policy on them and on their daily lives. Findings also show that despite a decrease in the popularity of president Abbas and Fatah movement in this poll, large majorities of the pubic are satisfied with the performance of the government in managing the Corona crisis. 17-20 June 2020 This poll has been conducted in cooperation with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in Ramallah These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 17-20 June 2020. The period before the conduct of the poll witnessed several developments including the spread of the Corona virus throughout the world and in the Palestinian territories leading the Palestinian Authority to impose a lockdown throughout the Palestinian territories which brought to a standstill many economic activities. It also witnessed the formation of a new Israeli government lead by prime minister Netanyahu and the announcement of the government intentions to annex the Jordan Valley and the settlement areas in the occupied West Bank. In response, the PA announced ending its commitment to the Oslo agreement and severed relations with Israel in security and civil realms. This was followed by ending Palestinian-Israeli security coordination and Israel stopped the transfer of Palestinian clearance funds thereby negatively affecting the PA’s ability to pay salaries for the month of May 2020. This press release addresses these issues and covers other matters such as Palestinian parliamentary and presidential elections, general conditions in the Palestinian territories, the peace process and the future possible directions for Palestinians in the absence of a viable peace process. Total size of the sample is 1200 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is +/-3%. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel. 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org. Main Findings: This quarterly poll was conducted during a period in which the spread of the Corona virus was believed to have been brought under control thereby allowing us to conduct face-to-face interviews throughout the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip. The poll covered various Issues, most importantly the intention of the Israeli government to annex Palestinian territories and the Palestinian response to the Israeli plans which amounted to a decision to stop implementation of the Oslo agreement and to sever relations with the Israeli government. We also focused on public perception of the PA government and its performance during the Coronavirus pandemic. Findings show that two-thirds of the public believe that the new Israeli government led by prime minister Netanyahu will indeed annex Palestinian territories. This realization created a great deal of public concern and worry about the future. Public worry focused on the salary payment to the public sector, access to medical treatment, shortages in water and electricity supplies, eruption of armed clashes, return of security chaos and anarchy, PA collapse, and inability to travel to Jordan. A large majority supports a Palestinian response to annexation that involves stopping the implementation of the agreements with Israel and severing all relations with it. But the public has doubts about the sincerity of the PA in stopping security coordination with Israel. Despite the fact that a slim majority supports responding to the plan by returning to armed struggle, the findings of this poll in fact show a decrease in supporting armed struggle compared to the findings of our last poll which was conducted four months ago. Moreover, despite the fact that two-thirds are worried about the likely collapse of the PA, only one third thinks that Israel will bring back its military rule and civil administration to the Palestinian territories; three quarters express rejection of such return, if it were to happen. With regard to the government performance in managing the Coronavirus pandemic, a large majority expresses satisfaction with the performance of the PA and with the various measures taken by the PA government. More than three quarters indicate that they trust that the government has been working to protect the interests of public. But two-thirds say that their income or salary has been reduced and a majority indicates that it has stopped working or has become unemployed during that period. Moreover, more than three quarters express the view that the PA government did not do its best to compensate those who suffered the most due to the closure and lockdown. It is interesting that despite the tense relations between the PA and Israel, two-thirds of the public express agreement with Palestinian-Israeli cooperation and coordination in the health sector that took place during the period of the pandemic. Findings show a rise in favor of the two-state solution but half of the public remains opposed to this solution. Findings also show a consensus against the Trump plan, or the deal of the century, with a prevailing perception that the plan does not end the Israeli occupation and does not lead to the creation of a Palestinian state. Indeed, most of the public believe now that the plan has returned the conflict to its original existential roots. For all of this, a large majority is opposed to a resumption of dialogue with the US. Finally, despite a decline in the demand for the resignation of president Abbas, findings indicate that he would lose a presidential election in which he competes against Ismail Haniyyeh. Findings also show that the gap between Fatah and Hamas, which stood at 6 points four months ago in Fatah’s favor, has now narrowed to 2 points in its favor. (1) Israeli annexation of Palestinian territories and its potential consequences:
(2) PA performance during the COVID-19 pandemic:
(3) The Peace process and the US “Deal of the Century”:
(4) Legislative and presidential election
(5) Domestic conditions:
(6) Reconciliation:
(7) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:
Date: 13/02/2020
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Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No 75 - 94% of the Palestinians reject the “Deal of the Century;” large majorities support various responses to the plan including ending the WBGS split
94% of the Palestinians reject the “Deal of the Century;” large majorities support various responses to the plan including ending the WBGS split, the withdrawal of PA recognition of Israel, the ending of security coordination with Israel, the ending of the implementation of the Oslo agreement, and the resort to armed struggle; more than 80% believe the plan returns the conflict to its existential roots; support for the two-state solution drops to its lowest level since the signing of the Oslo agreement; and while about two-thirds endorse president Abbas’s policy against the plan, about 70% believe that he will not keep his word or follow through 5-8 February 2020 This poll has been conducted in cooperation with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in Ramallah These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 5-8 February 2020. The period before the conduct of the poll witnessed several developments including the release of the Trump’s “Deal of the Century” and its immediate rejection by the Palestinian leadership. The Arab foreign ministers met in Cairo few days later and unanimously rejected the plan. A similar rejection followed by representatives of the Islamic countries. Despite the consensus, some Arab countries expressed timid welcome of US efforts and three Arab countries sent their ambassadors to the event in the White House in which the plan was announced. Internally, Fatah and Hamas issued conciliatory statements calling for reconciliation but this was not followed by any concrete measures and efforts to hold Palestinian elections witnessed some serious setbacks. In Palestinian-Israeli relations, tensions rose significantly during the fieldwork period as popular confrontations developed in various cities and signs of an emerging trade crisis were visible. This press release addresses many of these issues and covers other matters such as Palestinian parliamentary and presidential elections, general conditions in the Palestinian territories, the peace process and the future possible directions for Palestinians in the absence of a viable peace process. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is +/-3%. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel. 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org. Main Findings: This quarterly poll was conducted one month earlier than planned in order to measure, in a timely manner, the immediate public response to the American plan known as the “Deal of the Century.” Findings show a Palestinian consensus against the plan as a package and against each of its components, including the economic part if linked to acceptance of the political section of the plan. Moreover, more than 80% of the public believe that the plan has returned the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to its existential roots. The majority speculates that the Trump plan has been deliberately designed to ensure a Palestinian rejection in order for the US to allow Israel to unilaterally annex the Jordan valley and the Jewish settlements. Findings also show that two-thirds of the public support president Abbas’ policy against the plan. But the majority, ranging between two-thirds and three quarters, does not trust the president’s word, as it believes he will not implement his own decision to end relations with Israel and the US. In response to the Trump plan, the overwhelming majority wants the president to end the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, to withdraw PA recognition of Israel, to end security coordination, to stop the implementation of the Oslo agreement, and to even resort to armed struggle. Findings also show unprecedented decline in support for the two-state solution to less than 40%, the lowest reported by PSR since the signing of the Oslo agreement. They also show a rise in the percentage of those who think that the most effective means of ending the occupation is armed struggle; they also show a decline in the percentage of those who think negotiation is the most effective means. In domestic matters, finding show a decline in Abbas’ popularity and that of Fatah compared to our findings two-months ago. They also show a rise in the popularity of Hamas’ Ismael Haniyyeh during the same period. If presidential elections were to take place today, 50% would vote for Haniyyeh. Findings also show a drop in the level of optimism regarding the prospects of holding of parliamentary elections soon. But optimism about the prospects for reconciliation increases a little compared to two months ago and about half of the public indicates that if elections were to take place today, they would contribute to the reunification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. (1) US “Deal of the Century”:
(2) The peace process:
(3) Legislative and presidential election
(4) Domestic conditions:
(5) Reconciliation:
(6) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:
Date: 19/12/2019
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Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No 74 - While optimism about the prospects for holding elections rises and a majority thinks that they should be held regardless of the Israeli position on East Jerusalem’s participation
While optimism about the prospects for holding elections rises and a majority thinks that they should be held regardless of the Israeli position on East Jerusalem’s participation, half of the public thinks elections, if they were to take place, will neither be free nor fair; indeed, a majority does not have faith in the integrity or neutrality of the police forces, in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, in protecting the election process and a large majority believes that whoever loses the elections will reject the results. On the peace process, two thirds view the US announcement about the legality of Israeli settlements as destructive to the two-state solution and will lead to an Israeli annexation of parts of the West Bank 11-14 December 2019 This poll has been conducted in cooperation with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in Ramallah These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 11-14 December 2019. The period before the conduct of the poll witnessed several developments including the announcement by the Palestinian Election Commission and President Abbas that all factions have agreed to the holding of legislative elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. But no decree was issued by Abbas during the period of the data collection. The period also witnessed a debate among Palestinians over the decision of the PA Attorney General to ask the court to block public access to more than 50 Palestinian media websites. Hamas allowed the construction of an American field hospital on the borders of the Gaza Strip with Israel. Power was cut by the Israeli Electric Corporation to central West Bank for two hours every day in many locations served by the Jerusalem District Electricity Company due to unpaid bills. On the Israeli side, prime minister Netanyahu was indicted for corruption and Israeli political parties failed to form a government coalition leading to a decision to hold a third parliamentary election in a single year. The US government declared a new position regarding Israeli settlements in which it disputed the illegality of these settlements from an international law standpoint. In the meanwhile, the US Congress started an on-going effort to impeach president Trump for the use of the presidency to attain personal gains. This press release addresses many of these issues and covers other matters such as Palestinian parliamentary and presidential elections, general conditions in the Palestinian territories, the peace process and the future possible directions for Palestinians in the absence of a viable peace process. Total size of the sample is 1200 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is +/-3%. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel. 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org. Main Findings: Findings of the fourth quarter of 2019 show a small majority indicating optimism about the holding of legislative elections in the near future. Moreover, the poll shows that majority is in favor of holding these elections even if Israel does not allow them in East Jerusalem; in case of Israeli opposition, the public says that East Jerusalemites should vote wherever they can, in Jerusalem and outside it. The bad news however, is that half of the public believes that these upcoming elections will not be free or fair. Furthermore, only half of the public trusts the ability of the Palestinian Election Commission (PEC) to manage the election process with integrity and less than half has confidence in the ability of the police, whether in West Bank and the PA or in the Gaza Strip under Hamas, to provide protection to the election process and the ballot boxes with integrity and without bias. Indeed, a majority believes that Hamas will not be able to conduct its election campaign in the West Bank, and Fatah in the Gaza Strip, without restrictions and interference. These findings indicate a diminished public trust in the entire election process, due probably in part to a distrust in PEC, as indeed supported by the findings, and in the PA public institutions in both areas of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Worst of all, a large majority believes that if Hamas wins the elections, Fatah, in the West Bank, will not accept the outcome and if Fatah wins the elections, Hamas, in the Gaza Strip, will not accept the outcome. This finding demonstrates beyond any doubt the absence of public confidence in the democratic credentials of the two major political parties, Fatah and Hamas, and raise a big question about the extent of the damage and political corruption that have been generated by the absence of democratic life and by the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip since 2007. On the ability of a newly elected legitimate government to dissolve the armed groups in the Gaza Strip and collect their arms, a large majority indicates opposition to such measure. Indeed, the majority believes that protecting or keeping the arms of the armed groups has greater legitimacy than that of the electoral legitimacy of the government. These findings reveal that the public does not take the election and its legitimacy seriously (which might be an outcome of the problems identified above) and that in the absence of a viable peace process, the public puts its trust, first and foremost, in armed struggle. Findings show that if elections take place today, Fatah would receive the biggest share of the vote, followed by Hamas, existing third parties, newly created third parties, and finally an electoral list loyal to Mohammad Dahlan. With this range of options, only a small percentage of participating votes remains undecided. Needless to say, the formation of an electoral list loyal to Dahlan will significantly weaken the size of Fatah’s share of the vote and might threaten its ability to emerge as the biggest party. This problem, unique to Fatah, can be exacerbated by its persistent lack of discipline, as demonstrated by the elections of 1996 and 2006, if, for example, other unofficial Fatah lists were formed by disgruntled senior party members who fail to make it to a realistic spot in the party’s election list. This means that Fatah might find itself competing against itself thereby ending up with greater fragmentation and great many lost votes. But the greatest threat to a Fatah electoral victory would be its failure to integrate Marwan Barghouti and his supporters in its electoral list. In such a case, as temporarily happened in the 2006 elections, he might form his own electoral list thereby splitting Fatah’s vote and insuring that Hamas would receive the greatest share of the vote. On other domestic political issues, findings indicate that a plurality in the West Bank thinks that Hamas should have participated in the recent exchange of rocket fire between Israel and Islamic Jihad. But the situation in the Gaza Strip is different as a greater plurality thinks that Hamas’ decision of refraining from participation has been the correct decision. We also found a large majority views the decision of the PA Attorney General to seek court authorization to block Palestinian media websites as an attack on freedom of speech and therefore he should not stay in his office because he apparently does not believe in free speech. We also found an overwhelming majority supporting the PA government decision to raise the marriage age to 18 years. Two thirds of the public view the US decision recognizing the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories in the West Bank and East Jerusalem as destructive the two-state solution. A majority views the decision as destructive also to the one-state solution and that one of its outcomes will be to push Israel to annex parts of the West Bank, such as the Jordan Valley. This American position led to a significant increase in the percentage of Palestinians, standing today at three quarters, who demand that the Palestinian leadership reject the American peace plan, or the Deal of the Century, out of hand, without even looking at its substance while 70% indicate opposition to a restoration of PA dialogue with the Trump Administration. Finally, findings show that a majority is opposed to the two-state solution, but support for it remains higher than the support for the one-state solution. They also indicate a slight increase in support for armed struggle or a return to armed intifada. It is noticeable however that a majority of the public thinks that the indictment of Israeli prime minister Netanyahu will soon lead to his removal from power. Similarly, a majority is optimistic about the ability of the US Congress to impeach President Trump and a similar majority is optimistic that he will lose the upcoming US presidential elections. This public betting on the dynamics of domestic Israeli politics and on the workings of the US Congress might be one of the reasons why we still find more public support for the two-state solution compared to other alternative solutions to the conflict with Israel. (1) A new legislative election?
(2) Presidential elections:
(3) Blocking websites, the justice system, the electricity crisis, the American field hospital, the Shtayyeh government, and other domestic conditions:
(4) Reconciliation, Hamas and Islamic Jihad:
(5) US declaration of settlements’ legality, the Trump peace plan, and Trump impeachment:
(6) The peace process:
(7) Arab uprisings, Turkish incursion into Syria, and visit of Saudi football team:
(8) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:
Date: 17/09/2019
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Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No 73 - A greater majority believes that Abbas' response, to stop implementation of agreements with Israel, is merely a media stunt and will not be implemented
While a majority is dissatisfied with the behavior of the PA and Palestinian factions in response to the Israeli demolition of homes in Wadi al Hommos, a greater majority believes that Abbas’ response, to stop implementation of agreements with Israel, is merely a media stunt and will not be implemented; and while support for two-state solution declines, support for armed attacks rises and an overwhelming majority rejects the US “deal of the century” and believes it will not end the occupation. In domestic matters, an overwhelming majority views “honor killing” as a heinous crime, a majority has no trust in the Palestinian judiciary, and more than 60% demand the resignation of president Abbas 11-14 September 2019 This poll has been conducted in cooperation with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in Ramallah These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 11-14 September 2019. The period before the conduct of the poll witnessed several developments including a presidential termination of the work of the Supreme Judicial Council and the formation of a transitional one, a presidential statement requiring former ministers, who illegally received salary increases, to return these funds, and a widespread internal debate over “honor killing” in the context of the death of a woman from Bethlehem in suspicious circumstances. In relations with Israel, five main developments occurred during this period: an Israeli demolition of a large built up area in Wadi Hommos which is located in an area under PA zoning control, responding to this incident, Abbas announced his intention to suspend the implementation of agreements with Israel, an explosive device was detonated in an area near the settlement of Dolev, west of Ramallah, killing an Israeli woman, Israeli prime minister Netanyahu announced his intentions to annex the Jordan Valley if he wins the Israeli elections scheduled for 17 September 2019, and finally, Israel transferred to the PA about two billion Shekels from the Palestinian custom revenues which the PA had previously announced it will not accept if it was not transferred in full. On Palestinian-American relations, US ambassador David Friedman stated that the US peace plan does not call for the creation of a Palestinian state but that it allows for Palestinian autonomy. This press release addresses many of these issues and covers other matters such as Palestinian parliamentary and presidential elections, general conditions in the Palestinian territories, the peace process and the future possible directions for Palestinians in the absence of a viable peace process. Total size of the sample is 1200 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is +/-3%. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel. 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org. Main Findings: Findings of the third quarter of 2019 show an overwhelming majority, reaching about three quarters, dissatisfied with the performance of the PA and the political factions in their response to the Israeli demolition of Palestinian homes in Wadi al Hommos, near Jerusalem. The majority views the response of president Abbas to the demolition—by declaring that the PA is stopping its implementation of the agreements with Israel— as inappropriate. Indeed, an overwhelming majority, exceeding three quarters of the public, believes that Abbas’ decision is merely a media stunt aiming at absorbing public anger with the PA leadership over its failure to prevent Israel from carrying out that demolition. Furthermore, public anger with the PA is probably driven by the belief of more than 80% that the Palestinian leadership will not implement the decision to stop implementing the agreements with Israel. In domestic matters, findings show that the overwhelming majority of the public views “honor killing” of women as a heinous crime that must be punished severely. Only 10% think that this type of crimes is understandable and punishment should thereby be reduced. By contrast, findings show that almost half of the public, much more in the Gaza Strip, believes human beings can be possessed by Jinn or demons while a slightly smaller percentage believes this to be a superstition. Findings also show that Shtayyeh’s government has failed so far in winning the trust of the public. Indeed, public trust in the ability of the government to perform better than the previous government has declined compared to the findings three months ago. Similarly, the public is dissatisfied with the performance of the judiciary, particularly the courts, with about two-thirds believing that its functioning is marred by corruption, lack of independence, or that it rules not according to the law but in accordance with whims and personal interests. But the public is evenly divided in its satisfaction with the decisions made by Abbas regarding the judiciary. Moreover, the largest percentage believes that the Transitional Judicial Council will not succeed in the next year or two in reforming the judiciary. Furthermore, trust in the presidency is also low as more than 60% demand the resignation of president Abbas; slightly more than a third wants him to stay in office. If Abbas runs in a presidential election against Ismail Haniyyeh, the votes would be very close. In foreign affairs, findings show that the largest percentage of the Palestinians, particularly in the West Bank, does not view Iran as a friend or an ally of the Palestinians. Yet, a majority, in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, believes that if war breaks out between Iran and Israel, the former would be able to defeat the latter, as Iran is believed to have a stronger military force. In light of prime minister Netanyahu’s statement announcing his intentions to annex the Jordan Valley, findings show a significant increase in the percentage of those who believe that the two-state solution is no longer feasible or practical. As in the past, feasibility is linked to support for the two-state solution. Findings show a significant decline in support for that solution accompanied by an increased support for armed attacks against Israelis. Moreover, public perception of the Trump peace plan continues to worsen, compared to attitudes two years ago, with two-thirds of the public demanding the Palestinian leadership to reject the plan out of hand even before reading the plan’s content, because it must be bad. More than 80% reject the idea presented by the US ambassador to Israel offering self-rule, rather than sovereign and independent statehood, to the Palestinians. More than 70% oppose resumption of the dialogue with the Trump Administration. (1) Home demolition in Wadi al Hommos and Abbas’ response by suspending implementation of agreements with Israel:
(2) “Honor killing,” Jinn possession, economic conditions, the performance of the Shtayyeh government, and others:
3) Public evaluation of the judiciary and views on the president’s decisions regarding the judiciary:
(4) Presidential and parliamentary elections:
(5) Reconciliation, Hamas and Iran:
(6) The Trump peace plan:
7) The peace process:
8) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:
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