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Tuesday, 2 July. 2024
 
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Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Polls
No. 7
July 15-17, 2004

Background

The Egyptian Government made an initiative to the Palestinian Authority aiming at putting things in order after the proposed Israeli pullout from the settlements in the Gaza Strip. While the Palestinian Authority welcomed the Egyptian initiative, some Palestinian political factions declared their reservations on some of its articles.

On the international arena, the International Court of Justice made its final verdict concerning the Separation Wall in the West Bank. The verdict calls on Israel to remove the Wall since it is not legal and to compensate the Palestinian families for the damage that the Wall caused to them. In this context, some officials at the US Administration warned Palestinians against resorting to the United Nations for dealing with the ICJ verdict.

On the Palestinian internal arena, the issue of local councils elections and the mechanisms of conducting them continues to dominate a good part of the on-going debates. The issue of giving women a quota in the local councils boards is another vital issue. The debate on elections exceeds the local councils elections to call for a presidential and legislative ones as soon as possible.

On the other side of the Palestinian arena Israel still continues its excursions inside Palestinian cities, villages and refugee camps with the same killing and destruction whether in the West Bank or in the Gaza Strip.

The Results

Following are the results of the seventh public opinion poll conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 15-17 July, 2004. The University took full sponsorship of the whole poll.

The seventh poll undertakes several subjects which focused on the Egyptian initiative, the separation wall, the local Palestinian situation, the performance of Palestinian institutions, the legislative and local councils elections, in addition to the political affiliation of Palestinian people and other issues.

The sample included 1358 persons whose age group is 18 years and above and who have the right to vote. The sample forms one per thousand from among the total number of Palestinian people of this age group. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 859 persons from the West Bank and 499 persons from the Gaza Strip.

The sample was chosen randomly and the margin of error of the sample is about ±3%. Still 2.5% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

The Major Results:

While 68.9% from among the respondents say that they know the details of the Egyptian initiative, 59.0% of them support it.
Concerning the articles of the Egyptian initiative, 50.9% reject the article related to sending Egyptian security experts, 79.9% support the article related to uniting all security apparatuses under the leadership of the Palestinian Council of Ministers, and 80.2% support appointing an effective minister for the interior affairs with wide responsibilities.
While 17.8% from among respondents see that the Egyptian initiative aims at helping the Palestinian people, 41.7% see that the initiative aims at supporting Sharon’s Unilateral Disengagement Plan.
While 46.0% from among respondents support the participation of Egypt and Jordan in the rehabilitation of Palestinian security apparatuses if Israel pulls out from the Gaza Strip, 51.4% reject that.
44.5% from among respondents give priority, after Israel pulls out, to creating job opportunities and fighting unemployment and poverty, while 6.0% believe that priority should be given to rehabilitating ministries and the civil institutions.
59.0% from among respondents believe that Israel will not be committed to the Quartet’s conviction that an Israeli pull out from the Strip is part of the Road Map.
20.6% say that the Palestinian Authority will be able to control the Gaza Strip if Israel pulls out. 6.3% say that the Islamic factions will dominate. 15.8% say that there will be a security choas if Israel pulls out, while 32.9% say that there will be some sort of understanding between the PA and the Palestinian factions.
25.1% from among respondents believe that the power which is most capable to have control over the Gaza Strip is Palestinian Authority’s security apparatuses, 6.8% believe that it is the military bodies of Palestinian political factions, 9.1% believe that it should be some international forces in co-operation with the Palestinian Authority, 8.3% believe that the power most capable is a joint force from the Palestinian Authority’s apparatuses and the neighboring Arab countries, and 45.2% believe that a united leadership from among Palestinian factions and powers is most capable.
65.9% from among respondents believe that to give other countries a security role in Gaza or the West Bank is to belittle the Palestinian sovereignty.
33.2% support the existence of an Egyptian security role in the administration of the Strip if Israel pulls out; 24.7% support a Jordanian role in the West Bank if Israel pulls out from some parts, and 58.0% support the existence of international forces in the Strip until the rehabilitation of Palestinian institutions.
35.4% believe that the Palestinian Authority is incompetent in capitalizing on the International Court of Justice’s verdict concerning the removal of the Separation Wall.
51.3% from among respondents reject the Palestinian Authority’s adherence to the articles of the Road Map after Israel announced its Unilateral Disengagement Plan.
72.8% believe that the Road Map as an agreement is not viable any longer.
60.0% believe that Ahmed Qurai is incapable of performing fully as a prime minister.
60.7% of the represents support a new ceasefire between the Palestinians and the Israelis.
65.6% of the respondents believe that Israel is not concerned with a ceasefire with the Palestinians.
90.1% of the respondents believe that the military operations the Palestinian factions execute come on as a natural response to the Israeli military policies.
48.8% reject launching attacks against Israel from the Strip if Israel pulls out .
33.1% from among respondents believe that the Palestinian Authority despite the current circumstances that it goes through is capable of fighting corruption,

- 31.6% believe that it is capable of maintaining a ceasefire,
- 41.5% believe that is capable of controlling the internal security,
- 35.7% believe that it is capable of improving the economic situation,
- 58.8% believe that it is capable of conducting Legislative Council elections.
- 66.2% believe that it is capable of conducting local councils elections.
- 23.9% believe that it is capable of exiting the current political crisis.

As for the evaluation of the performance of the Palestinian institutions in the current situation:
- 28.0% say that they are satisfied with the performance of the Palestinian Government.
- 27.2% say that they are satisfied with the performance of the Legislative Council.
- 33.0% say that they are satisfied with the performance of the Palestinian judicious system.
- 73.3% say that they are satisfied with the performance of Palestinian universities.
- 56.4% say that they are satisfied with the performance of Palestinian civil societies.
- 28.5% say that they are satisfied with the Palestinian security apparatuses.
- 44.0% say that they are satisfied with the performance of the institutions of the private sector.

95.1% from among respondents support a unified Palestinian leadership.
73.7% from among respondents see that there is a necessity to restore consideration to the PLO.
59.6% support the on-going peace process between the Palestinians and the Israelis.
In the current circumstances 73.1% from among respondents say they do not feel secure, neither in themselves nor for their families and properties.
As for the priorities of the respondents in the present, they come according to the following condescending order.


1- An average of 95.250% favor freeing prisoners from Israeli jails.
2- An average of 93.122% favor the uplifting of roadblocks and check points placed between Palestinian cities and villages.
3- An average of 91.090% favor creating job opportunities.
4-An average of 90.147% favor the improvement of the economic situation.
5- An average of 88.770% favor the improvement of the public health services.
6-. An average of 87.798% favor reinforcing Palestinian local security.
7-. An average of 87.673% favor the improvement of public education.
8- An average of 73.049 favor receiving some aids.

Only 1.9% of the respondents assert that they will reelect the same members of the PLC that they elected before, and 7.6% assert that they will reelect only some of the old members. While 14.9% assert that they will not reelect any of the previous members, 49.0% assert that they will decide on whom to vote for at the Polls. Further, 22.5% assert that they will not participate in the elections.
As for the characteristics they desire to see in future candidates running for the PLC, they favor the following in a condescending order.

1- An average of 86.863% favor the educational qualifications.
2- An average of 79.919% favor the patriotic record of the candidate.
3- An average of 52.454% favor male gender.
4- An average of 47.364% favor the political affiliation of the candidate.
5- An average of 37.769% care for the economic situation of the candidate.
6- An Average of 30.825% favor the female gender.
7- An average of 30.648% care for the family belongness of the candidate.
8- An average of 29.404% care for place of dwelling.
9- An average of 27.725% favor previous PLC members.
10- An average of 27.548% care for kinship.

In case of running for legislative elections, 17.8% choose Fateh block, 13.5% choose Hamas block, while a joint block between PLO and the Islamic movement received 12.2%.
64.2% from among respondents support the inclusion of a statement in the elections law that guarantees a quota for women in the Legislative Council (women quota).
While 38.4% support conducting the local councils elections on stages, 38.2% support elections for local councils must be conducted simultaneously.
while 67.4% from among respondents support the right of women to run for local council positions.
39.8% see that local councils should only offer public services, 3.4% see that local councils should play a political role, and 52.3% see that local councils should play the two roles together.
10.8% from among respondents assert that the current circumstances are suitable for conducting general elections while 33.3% assert that the circumstances are not suitable. 36.2% from among respondents say that it is possible to disregard the present circumstances and conduct elections, 14.4% however, say that it is not possible to disregard the present circumstances and conduct elections.
770.5% from among the respondents assert that the current Intifada influenced their economic situation negatively.
As for those who say that the Intifada influenced their economic situation negatively, they assert that they were able to cope up with their economic situations according to the following priorities.

1- An average of 85.601% say that they concentrate on necessities only without caring for other commodities.
2- An average of 63.496% say that they defer paying bills (taxes and utilities).
3- An average of 52.562% say that they depend on personal savings.
4- An average of 45.065% say that they depend on loans from relatives.
5- An average of 36.465% say that they depend on increasing work hours.
6- An average of 34.439% say that they rely on aids.
7- An average of 31.589% say that they resort to work in agriculture and home economy project.
8- An average of 11.966% say that they depend on child labor.

39.7% from among respondents consider that the grants given to local Palestinian institutions from international institutions are used for personal gains for some of those who work in these institutions.
Only 15.8% read local newspaper daily and 21.8% do not read them at all.
52.9% from among respondents prefer to read Al Quds newspaper, 26.6% prefer to read Al Ayyam newspaper, 11.4% prefer to read Al Hayat Al Jadeeda newspaper and 7.5% prefer to read Al Resaleh newspaper.
Al Jazeera channel takes the highest percentage of viewing among the respondents (38.2%) and Al Hurra channel takes the lowest percentage.
When asked about the effect of the Separation Wall on their lives, 60.0% from among the respondents say that it influences their lives in different forms.
As for Political affiliations they were distributed as follows:

- People’s Party - 0.3
- Democratic Front - 1.1
- Islamic Jihad - 4.7
- Fateh - 4.5
- Hamas - 21.1
- Fida - 0.1
- Public Front - 2.7
- Independent Nationalist - 8.0
- Independent Islamist - 7.5
- None of the above - 28.6
- Other - 1.3


* The Opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not represent by any means the opinion of An-Najah National University.

 
 
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