Palestinian Public Opinion Poll

DESPITE NEGATIVE EVALUATION OF PALESTINIAN CONDITIONS SINCE THE ELECTION OF ABU MAZIN, AND DESPITE THE CONTINUED RISE IN THE POPULARITY OF HAMAS, EXPECTED ELECTIONS’ OUTCOME GIVES FATEH 44% AND HAMAS 33% OF THE SEATS OF THE NEXT PLC

9-11 June 2005

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between June 9-11, 2005. The poll deals with public evaluation of Palestinian conditions since the election of Abu Mazin, expected outcome of the next parliamentary elections, the participation of Hamas in the political process, and the disengagement plan. Total size of the sample is 1320 adults interviewed face to face in the West Bank (825) and the Gaza Strip (495) in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org

MAIN FINDINGS

Focus in this poll has been placed on domestic matters, especially the balance of power between factions and the popularity of leaders as well as public evaluation of conditions since the election of Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazin) as president of the PA. Three findings emerge from the poll:

1. The competition between Fateh and Hamas is becoming fierce. The poll was conducted soon after the second round of local elections which were dominated by the two factions. Despite the impressive ability of Hamas to increase its popularity during the past six months, Fateh remains stronger, particularly in the West Bank. But Fateh lacks a majority support and needs to forge a coalition with other forces in order to be able to govern. Hamas’ strength lies in the public belief that it is clean and most able to fight corruption. Moreover, many of Hamas’ supporters believe that its decision to participate in the parliamentary elections is a sign of moderation. Fateh’s strength lies in the public belief that it is most able to bring about a peace agreement, improve the economy, and enforce law and order.
2. Poll findings show that in the competition among Palestinian leaders for public support, Marwan Barghouti emerges as the most popular followed by Mahmud Abbas and Ahmad Qurai. In the second line of leadership, six figures are prominent, two of which are Hamas leaders, Mahmud Zahhar and Ismail Haniyyeh, and four are nationalists: Mohammad Dahlan, Saeb Erekat, Farouq Qaddoumi and Mustafa Barghouti. These results demonstrate one of Hamas’ weaknesses: the inability, due to Israeli assassination policy, to put forward popular and charismatic leaders.
3. Despite the negative public assessment of Palestinian conditions since the election of Abu Mazin, a significant part of the public does not necessarily blame him for that. Most Palestinians probably put the blame on Israel. Nonetheless, it is likely that Fateh and Abu Mazin will suffer the consequences for the deterioration of Palestinian conditions as the public tends to believe that it is Fateh, not Hamas, which is able to change these conditions. With Fateh seen impotent, it loses its advantage over Hamas in delivering better outcomes with regard to the peace process, the economy, and the enforcement of law and order.

(1) Public Evaluation of Palestinian Conditions since the Election of Abu Mazin

Majority sees conditions deteriorating or remaining the same since the election of Abu Mazin But 60% say they are satisfied with Abu Mazin’s performance and 35% say they are unsatisfied The public is evenly split over Abu Mazin’s decision to postpone the elections and only 39% see the outcome of his visit to the US as beneficial to the national interest From among eight major areas of public concern, a majority believes that things have either stayed the same or became worse in six areas and improved in one area, while the public is divided in half over one other area. Conditions are the same or worse in the following areas: settlements, economic conditions, democracy and human rights, enforcement of law and order, fight against corruption, and internal relations among Palestinian factions. The only area in which progress is seen is the release of prisoners by Israel. The area in which the public is divided is related to occupation measures such as closures and checkpoints. Overall, only 3% believe that things in general have improved a lot since the election of Abu Mazin while 45% believe that things improved a little, 38% believe things remained the same, and 12% believe that things have worsened. Despite this negative assessment, 60% are satisfied and 35% are unsatisfied with Abu Mazin’s performance since his election. Satisfaction increases in cities (65%) compared to refugee camps (56%), among illiterates (67%) compared to holders of BA degree (53%), among housewives (65%) compared to students (53%), among those most willing to buy a lottery ticket (73%) compared to those most unwilling to buy a lottery ticket (46%), and among supporters of Fateh (77%) compared to supporters of Hamas (45%).
39% believe Abu Mazin’s latest visit to Washington has been beneficial to Palestinian interests while the rest is divided between those who think it has not been useful (30%), neither useful nor un-useful (17%), and those with no opinion (14%). Moreover, 44% are satisfied and 46% are not satisfied with Abu Mazin’s decision to postpone legislative elections.

(2) Popularity of Factions and Expected Outcome of Next Parliamentary Elections

Support for Fateh and Hamas increases In the next parliamentary elections, 44% will vote for Fateh and 33% for Hamas Perception of corruption plays a significant role in electoral behavior Fateh is most able to deliver on most requirements of voters Marwan Barghouti is the most popular Palestinian leader Findings show continued increase in the popularity of Hamas standing today at 30%, compared to 25% last March and 18% last December. Fateh’s popularity stands at 41% compared to 36% last March and 40% last December. Fateh’s popularity is the same in the Gaza Strip (41%) as in the West Bank (42%). But Hamas’ popularity is greater in the Gaza Strip (35%) compared to the West Bank (27%), among women (34%) compared to men (26%), among students (36%) compared to merchants (19%), among the most religious (34%) compared to the least religious (13%), among the most willing to buy a lottery ticket (46%) compared to the most unwilling to buy a lottery ticket (22%), and among those employed in the private sector (29%) compared to those employed in the public sector (22%).

Findings show that the level of participation in the next legislative elections will be 77% and the outcome of those elections will be as follows: 44% for Fateh, 33% for Hamas and Islamic Jihad, 3% for the left, and 8% for independent lists. 12% are undecided. If the contest is between two lists only, one for Fateh and headed by Marwan Barghouti and one for Hamas and headed by Mahmud Zahhar, 47% would vote for Fateh and 38% for Hamas. 15% would vote for neither list or do not know to whom they would give their vote. Fateh’s list wins over Hamas’ in nine electoral districts: Toubas, Salfit, Jericho, Jenin, Bethlehem, Hebron, Khanyounis, Dier al Balah, and Rafah. Hamas wins in three districts: Tulkarm, Jabalia, and Gaza City. In the remaining four districts, Fateh wins with a slight advantage over Hamas.

The most important consideration in voting for individual candidates in the next legislative elections is going to be the integrity and lack of corruption of the candidate. >From among eight considerations in voting for election lists, number (1) is the ability to fight corruption, (2) ability to reach a peace agreement with Israel, (3) ability to improve economic conditions, (4) ability to maintain national unity, (5) ability to protect refugee rights in negotiations, (6) the name or affiliation of the list, (7) ability to enforce law and order, and finally (8) ability to insure the continuation of the intifada.

Fateh receives greater appreciation (compared to Hamas, left, or independent and new parties) for its ability to deliver on five of seven considerations while Hamas receives greater appreciation for its ability to deliver on two. Fateh is more able to improve the economy (46% for Fateh and 34% for Hamas), to reach a peace agreement with Israel (65% for Fateh and 22% for Hamas), to protect national unity (43% for Fateh and 37% for Hamas), to protect refugee rights (44% for Fateh and 36% for Hamas), and to enforce law and order (52% for Fateh and 32% for Hamas). Hamas is more able to fight corruption (47% for Hamas and 37% for Fateh) and to insure the continuation of the intifada (64% for Hamas and 23% for Fateh).

Major public concerns are organized in the following order of importance: (1) poverty and unemployment (34%), (2) occupation measures (33%), (3) corruption (24%), (4) internal anarchy and chaos (8%). After legislative elections, the public would like to see the following order of priorities: (1) improve the economy, (2) fight corruption, (3) reach a peace agreement with Israel, (4) enforce law and order, and finally, (5) maintain national unity.

In an open question, Marwan Barghouti receives the greatest level of support to lead Fateh’s election list in the next legislative elections receiving the support of 14% of respondents followed by Mohammad Dahlan (5%), Ahmad Quarai and Farouq Qaddoumi (4% each), while 57% have not decided yet or do not know.

If presidential elections were held today, Abu Mazin, in an open question, receives the largest percentage of support (24%) followed by Marwan Barghouti (12%), and Mahmud Zahhar (8%). 36% have not decided or do not know. In an open question regarding nomination for vice president, Marwan Barghouti receives the largest percentage of support (11%), followed by Ahmad Quarai (5%), Mustafa Barghouti and Mohammad Dahlan (4% each), Mahmud Zahhar and Saeb Erikat (3% each), and Ismail Haniyyeh and Farouq Qaddoumi (2% each). 52% have not decided or do not know. For the position of prime minister after the next legislative elections, Ahamd Qurai, in an open question, receives the largest percentage of support (9%) followed by Marwan Barghouti (7%), Mahmud Zahhar (5%), Mohammad Dahlan and Mustafa Barghouti (3% each). 56% have not decided or do not know.

(3) Hamas’ Participation in the Political Process

40% believe that the willingness of Hamas to participate in the next parliamentary elections means that the movement is more willing today to embrace the peace process but 20% believe it means the opposite If Hamas wins the majority of PLC seats, 40% believe the peace process will be stopped or slowed down and 30% believe it would have the opposite effect 44% believe economic conditions will become better and 22% believe they will become worse if Hamas wins a parliamentary majority; moreover, 44% believe the status of democracy will get better and 21% believe it will get worse if Hamas wins a parliamentary majority Findings show that a large percentage (40%) sees in Hamas’ willingness to participate in the next parliamentary elections a sign of moderation on the part of the Islamist movement, including a more willingness to accept the peace process. Only 20% believe that Hamas’ decision means the movement is adopting a more hard line position on the peace process. One third believes it reflects no change at all. Despite these findings, 39% believe that if Hamas actually wins a parliamentary majority in the next elections, the peace process will suffer while 30% believe it will benefit and 24% believe it will not be affected. Findings also show that 44% do not believe that a Hamas parliamentary majority would have negative effects on economic conditions or the future of Palestinian democracy. It is noticeable that while Fateh and Hamas supporters agree (39% each) that Hamas’ participation in elections is a sign of moderation, Fateh supporters are worried about the future of the peace process, economic conditions, and the future of democracy if Hamas wins a majority. Hamas supporters on the other hand are highly optimistic about the future of the economy and democracy and cautiously optimistic about the future of the peace process if Hamas wins a majority.

(4) Domestic Conditions: Reform, Democracy, Corruption, and PA Performance

94% support internal and external calls for reform, and 63% believe that the PA is currently implementing fundamental reform measures while positive evaluation of PA democracy rises to 37% But perception of corruption is still very high reaching 87% and only 39% believe that those responsible for corruption are often charged while 95% believe public hiring is done through wasta (connections) and only 36% feel safe and secure.
Positive evaluation of the performance of the presidency stands at 47%, police and justice system at 42% each, cabinet at 40%, PLC at 36%, and opposition groups at 51% Findings indicate an increase in the level of positive evaluation of Palestinian democracy from 24% in June 2004 to 37% in this poll. But the percentage of support for reform calls remains very high (94%) despite the fact that a majority of 63% believes that the PA is currently implementing fundamental reforms.

But PA reform efforts do not seem to include a fight against corruption as 87% believe that corruption exists in the PA and 95% believe that wasta (or connections) is essential in public hiring. The call for reform seems to include a demand for the enforcement of law and order as only 36% say they feel that their safety and security and that of their families are guaranteed these days.
Findings indicate an increase in the positive evaluation of PA performance compared to the situation in September 2004. For example, positive evaluation of the presidency has increased from 42% to 47%, for the cabinet from 33% to 40%, for the PLC from 30% to 36%, for the judiciary from 39% to 42%. A slight decrease in the positive evaluation of the performance of opposition groups has been registered from 53% to 51% during the same period.

(5) Peace Process and the Disengagement Plan

Short term negotiations’ priorities are organized as follows: release of prisoners, stopping the building of the barrier, return of laborers to work inside Israel, freezing of settlement construction, and removal of checkpoints Sharon’s disengagement plan is viewed by 72% as victory for armed resistance and 66% believe that armed confrontations have helped Palestinians achieve national rights; but only 28% believe the PA has high capacity to control conditions in the Gaza Strip after the Israeli disengagement Two thirds oppose continuation of armed attacks against Israelis from the Gaza Strip if the Israeli withdrawal is complete; but 52% believe that settlement building will increase in the West Bank in the coming years Despite strong support for the current ceasefire (77%), a majority of 60% opposes collection of arms from Palestinian factions and armed groups Findings show that release of prisoners is the main short term negotiating issue on the mind of Palestinians followed by the need to stop the separation barrier, the return of laborers to work inside Israel, the freezing of settlement construction, and the removal of checkpoints. Interest in the issue of prisoners increases in the Gaza Strip (40%) compared to the West Bank (30%), while the issue of the barrier is more important to West Bankers (28%) than Gazans (16%) whose second most urgent issue is the return of laborers to work inside Israel (21%).

Findings also show that a majority of 72% view the Israeli disengagement plan as victory for armed resistance. Moreover, two thirds of the public continue to view armed confrontations as helping achieve national rights in ways that negotiations could not. These results are similar to those obtained by PSR during the last two years. But findings also show that a minority of 28% believe that the PA has a high capacity to control conditions in the Gaza Strip after the Israeli withdrawal.

If the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza is complete, two thirds would oppose and 30% would support the continuation of armed attacks from the Strip. Opposition to such attacks in case of a complete withdrawal stood at 59% on June 2004, 60% on December 2004, and 66% last March. It is noticeable that opposition to armed attacks from Gaza after a complete withdrawal is similar in the West Bank to that of the Gaza Strip (65% and 68% respectively). But the poll found that 52% believe that settlement construction will increase in the West Bank during the coming years. It is probably due to this reason that despite the widespread support for the current ceasefire (77%), a majority of 60% oppose collection of arms from armed factions.

Support for collection of arms in the Gaza Strip (37%) is similar to that in the West Bank (39%). Support increases in cities (41%) compared to refugee camps (32%), among holders of BA degree (42%) compared to illiterates (26%), among the most willing to buy a lottery ticket (48%) compared to those most unwilling to buy a lottery ticket (25%), and among supporters of Fateh (50%) compared to supporters of Hamas (26%).

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This PSR survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Ramallah.

The latest poll on the Palestinian public opinion prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali revealed the following:

• (81 %) of the Palestinians do not – to various degrees – trust the commitments of Israel and its obligations to the agreements signed with the Palestinian Authority.
• (59%) oppose the return of the relations with Israel, (38 %) agree to it.
• (55 %) oppose the resumption of the security coordination with Israel, (40 %) agree to it.
• (52 %) oppose the resumption of the peace negotiations with Israel, (43 %) agree to it.

Beit Sahour –Public Relations’ Section:

The latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (www.pcpo.org) during the period 19 – 22 November 2020 covered a random sample of (516) Palestinian respondents representing the various demographic specimens of Palestinians (18 years and above) living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. It revealed that the Palestinians are almost split between agreeing to and opposing the return of the relations with Israel and the resumption of the security coordination with it, albeit the opposition scale outweighs a little.

This poll, Dr. Kukali said, focuses mainly on the decision of the Palestinian Authority to resume the relations with Israel that are terminated since 5/9/2020

in response to the intention of the Israeli government to annex about 30 % of the area of the West Bank with full support of the US administration under President Donald Trump.

Dr. Kukali further noted that the motivation to take this courageous step by the Palestinian Authority was a letter from the Israeli government addressed to the PA confirming its willingness to abide by all the agreements signed with the PA.

Dr. Kukali added that the majority of the Palestinian people, in this poll, expressed however their mistrust of Israel’s intentions, as its actions on the ground speak another language. Nevertheless, the Palestinian people are still hopeful that they will have one day their own independent and sovereign State of Palestine with East Jerusalem it’s capital.

Dr. N. Kukali, President and founder of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, said the details of the key results of this poll are as follows:

Trusting Israel

Responding to the question: “What is the extent of your trust to Israel’s commitments and its obligations to the agreements previously signed with the Palestinian Authority?” (71 %) said “I’m not so sure”, (10 %) said “I’m not sure at all”, (9 %) “somewhat sure”, (6 %) “quite sure” and (4 %) said “I don’t know”.

Return of the relations with Israel

With regard to the question: “Do you agree to the return of the relations with Israel to their former status as they have been before 5/19/2020, or not?” (59 %) said “I oppose”, (38 %) “agree”, and (3 %) said “I don’t know”.

Reasons of agreeing to the return of the relations with Israel

In respect of the question: “What are the reasons that let you agree to the return of the relations with Israel?”, (5.6 %) said “crisis of the salary payment of employees”, (4.4 %) said “security stability and calm”, (26.9 %) said “improvement of the economic situation”, (9.4 %) “peace and stability”, (16.9 %) “permits and work in Israel”, (2.5 %) “the clearance funds”, (3.8 %) “permits to the hospitals and admission of patients for treatment”, (3.8 %) “facilitation of livelihood”, (8.8 %) said “lifting the siege from Gaza and opening the border-crossings”, (6.9 %) “due to the life connected with Israel”, (7.5 %) “for serving the citizens” and (3.5 %) “no reason”.

Security coordination with Israel

(55 %) of the Palestinians oppose the resumption of the security coordination with Israel, whilst (40 %) agree to it, and (5 %) declined to respond.

Resumption of the peace negotiations

(52 %) of the Palestinian public oppose the resumption of the peace negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and Israel at present, whilst (43 %) of them agree to it and (5 %) declined to respond.

The economic situation

(61 %) of the Palestinian public assessed their economic situation at present as “bad”, (32 %) as “fair” (middle) and only (7 %) as “good”.

Survey overview

Dr. Nabil Kukali, said that the data for this survey has been collected by using CATI, an effective method for data collection in quantitative researches conducted by phone. By this method, questions are addressed to respondents from a previously designed questionnaire. The survey sample is randomly taken in accordance with a long experienced methodology applied by PCPO covering (516) respondents, (311) are from the West Bank and (205) from Gaza Strip.

Dr. Kukali has further indicated that the margin of error was (±4.38 %) at a significance level of (95.0%). The sample allotment with respect to the residential areas was as follows: (60.3 %) in the West Bank, incl. Eastern Jerusalem and (39.7 %) in Gaza Strip. The average age of the respondents was (32.4) years.

The overwhelming majority of the Palestinians views the decision of the UAE to normalize relations with Israel as a betrayal or abandonment of the Palestinian cause, one that serves only the interests of Israel. A similar majority thinks that Saudi Arabia and Egypt, by endorsing that normalization, have in effect abandoned the Palestinian leadership. But most Palestinians also place the blame on themselves because they are divided and have normalized relations with Israel long before others

9-12 September 2020

This poll has been conducted in cooperation with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in Ramallah

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 9-12 September 2020. The period before the conduct of the poll witnessed several developments including a US announcement about an agreement between the UAE and Israel to normalize relations between the two countries. This normalization agreement stipulated an Israeli suspension or delay of the planned annexation of parts of the West Bank. The period also witnessed a rise in the daily number of coronavirus infections and continued stalemate in Palestinian-Israeli relations that followed a PA decision to sever all security and civil links with Israel which led during the past months to a significant financial loss to the PA. This PA decision came in response to an Israeli announcement about the intention to annex about 30% of the West Bank. This press release addresses these issues and covers other matters such as Palestinian parliamentary and presidential elections, general conditions in the Palestinian territories, the peace process and the future possible directions for Palestinians in the absence of a viable peace process. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is +/-3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel. 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

Finding of the September 2020 poll show a great Palestinian public anger with the UAE decision to normalize relations with Israel viewing it as serving only the interests of Israel and as a betrayal or an abandonment of the Palestinian cause and at the same time as a big failure of Palestinian diplomacy. Additionally, the overwhelming majority estimates that the Palestinian leadership has lost its Arab allies as Saudi Arabia will soon follow the UAE in normalizing relations and that Egypt, by endorsing the deal, has in effect abandoned PA president Mahmoud Abbas. Nonetheless, most believe that the majority of the Arab public is opposed to the normalization deal. Findings show that the public blames the Palestinians

themselves for this development: the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and the fact that they had normalized relations with Israel before many others may have hastened the arrival of this day.

The public does not show an appreciation of the fact that the UAE-Israel deal requires the suspension of the annexation plan. The reason for this is the fact that three quarters think that the suspension is only temporary and will soon take place, the normalization deal notwithstanding. Moreover, based on this assessment, the public is opposed to the restoration of PA-Israel security coordination despite the fact that half of the public wishes to restore civil and fiscal relations between the two sides.

Findings also show a significant decline in support for the two-state solution compared to the situation three months ago. They also show that the consensus in rejecting the Trump plan, the deal of the century, first documented in PSR’s February 2020 poll, remains unchanged. Similarly, the overwhelming majority remains opposed to a resumption of contacts with the Trump administration. Despite the majority expectation that Trump will lose the upcoming US presidential elections, only one fifth expects positive policy change if the Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins.

Domestically, findings show continued satisfaction with the PA measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic despite significant decline in the level of satisfaction, especially with the prime minister’s performance. Moreover, a majority is opposed to the severing of coordination and cooperation with Israel in the fight against the spread of the coronavirus.

Demand for the resignation of president Abbas rises in this poll. Parallel to this, satisfaction with the performance of the president has declined. As a result, if elections were held today, Hamas’ Haniyyeh would win a majority of the public vote. This development might have been boosted by the current economic difficulties in the West Bank resulting from the severing of civil and fiscal coordination with Israel and the resulting inability of the PA to pay the public sector in full. Findings also show a drop in the perception of safety and security in the West Bank and an increase in the desire to emigrate. Despite these developments, the popularity of Fatah in the West Bank is not negatively affected; to the contrary, the findings show a little improvement in its popularity.

(1) UAE-Israel normalization agreement:

• A majority of 63% view the normalization agreement between the UAE and Israel as a major event that represents a significant regional shift while 32% view as minor development.
• Findings show a consensus (86%) that the agreement serves only the interests of Israel while 8% think it serves the interests of both the Palestinians and the Israelis and only 1% think it serves the interests of the Palestinians only.
• We asked the public to pick one word that represents its sentiments toward the normalization agreement: the majority (53%) picked “betrayal,” 17% picked “abandonment” 13% “insult,” 9% “indifference,” 6% “sadness,” while only 1% picked words like “satisfaction,” “pride,” and “joy.”
• Most Palestinians (57%) believe that the majority among the Arab public is opposed to the normalization agreement while 20% believe an Arab majority supports it.
• A large majority (70%) believes that other Arab countries, such as Bahrain, Oman, Sudan, and Morocco, will sign similar agreements with Israel while 24% believe they will not do that.
• An overwhelming majority (80%) believes that Saudi Arabia has given the green light to the UAE to sign the normalization agreement and a similar majority (82%) believes that Saudi Arabia too will sign a similar public agreement.
• Similarly, an overwhelming majority of the public (78%) believes that the Egyptian position welcoming the agreement represents an abandonment of the Palestinian leadership led by Abbas while 18% do not share this view.
• A majority of 55% believes that Mohammad Dahlan was one of the participants in the making of the UAE-Israel normalization agreement while 24% do not share this view.
• Nonetheless, a majority of 53% believes that the blame for the normalization deal falls on the shoulders of the Palestinians themselves due to their division and due to the fact that they have recognized Israel and normalized relations with it long before the others; 42% disagree with this view.
• Also, a majority of 62% views the UAE defection from the previous declared Arab consensus on Palestine as a great failure for Palestinian diplomacy; 31% do not share this view.

(2) Annexation and the severing of relations with Israel in post UAE-Israel normalization:

• Three quarters of the public (75%) believe that the normalization agreement forces Israel to merely postpone annexation while 19% think it forces it to put an end to it.
• Now, after the normalization agreement, a majority of 62% is opposed to the restoration of security coordination with Israel while 32% are in favor of restoring it.
• But half of the public (50%) supports, and 45% oppose, the restoration of civil and fiscal coordination with Israel.
• If Israel conditioned resumption of civil and fiscal coordination with a resumption of security coordination, a majority of 59% will oppose, and 35% will support, the resumption of relations.
• In response to an actual Israeli annexation of Palestinian territories, the public is divided on how to respond. When asked to choose one of five possible responses, 28% favored resumption of armed struggle, 20% selected stopping the implementation of the Oslo agreement, another 20% favored return to negotiations with Israel and the US on the basis of a Palestinian peace plan, 19% preferred waging nonviolent resistance, and 6% selected the abandonment of the two-state solution in favor of a one-state solution.
• The public indicates great worries about the future in case of continued severing of relations with Israel.
• For example, 74% say they are worried that Israel will stop transfer of clearance revenues, which would mean that the PA would not be able to pay the public sector. 75% say they are worried that patients would not be able to travel from the Gaza Strip to the West Bank or Israel for medical treatment. 77% are worried that they would soon witness shortages or complete cut-off in supplies of water and electricity from Israel.
• 59% are worried that armed clashes would erupt with Israel. Another 59% are worried that the PA would collapse or fail to deliver services. 70% are worried that security chaos and anarchy would return to Palestinian life. Finally, 60% say they are worried that they would not be able to travel abroad via Jordan.
• It is interesting to note that despite the great worry, a majority of the public (63%) does not believe that the PA has in fact ended security coordination with Israel and only 30% believe it indeed did.
• A majority of 61% does not expect Israel to resume its military rule and that of its civil administration now after Abbas’ decision to sever relations with Israel and his invitation to Israel to assume full responsibility for the occupied territories. One third (32%) expects Israel to do so.
• A large majority of 75% says it does not prefer the return of Israeli military rule or civil administration while only 21% say they do prefer that.

(3) The Peace process and the US “Deal of the Century”:

• Support for the concept of the two-state solution declines to 39% and opposition stands at 58%. No description or details were provided for the concept.
• Three months ago, support for the concept stood at 45%.
• A majority of 62% believes that the two-state solution is no longer practical or feasible due to the expansion of Israeli settlements while 31% believe that the solution remains practical. Moreover, 77% believe that the chances for the creation of a Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel in the next five years are slim or nonexistence while 20% believe the chances to be medium or high.
• The most preferred way out of the current status quo is “reaching a peace agreement with Israel” according to 27% of the public while 36% prefer waging “an armed struggle against the Israeli occupation.” 14% prefer “waging a non-violent resistance” and 14% prefer to keep the status quo. Three months ago, 28% said that they prefer reaching a peace agreement with Israel and 38% said they prefer waging an armed struggle.
• When asked about the most effective means of ending the Israeli occupation, 41% chose armed struggle, 24% negotiations, and 26% popular resistance. Three months ago, 45% chose armed struggle and 24% chose negotiations.
• We asked the public about the Trump plan, known as the “deal of the century:” 92% say they oppose it and 5% say they support it. Three months ago, 88% expressed opposition to the plan.
• If the Palestinians accept the Deal of the Century, what are the chances that such acceptance would lead to the end of the Israeli occupation and to the building of a Palestinian state? 55% think the chances are zero; 26% think the chances are less than 50%; and only 16% think that the chances are 50% or more.
• A majority of 71% is opposed and 19% are not opposed to a resumption of dialogue between the Palestinian leadership and the Trump Administration.
• Official contacts between the PA and the US government were suspended by the PA after the US, in December 2017, recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Three months ago, 69% said they were opposed to the resumption of dialogue with the US.
• A majority of 61% expects president Trump to lose the next US presidential election and 30% expect him to win it. Nonetheless, only 21% expect a positive change if Biden wins while 34% believe US policy will not change and 35% expect it to become worse.

(4) PA performance during the COVID-19 pandemic:

• A two-third majority (68%) is satisfied with the measure taken by the PA to prevent travel between the various governorates in order to contain the Coronavirus pandemic.
• Similarly, the findings show that the majority is satisfied with the performance of the various entities and individuals involved in the management of the Coronavirus crisis. For example, 64% express satisfaction with the performance of the security services deployed in their areas and 57% are satisfied with the performance of the governor in their area. On the other hand, satisfaction with the performance of the prime minister Mohammad Shtayyeh stands at 48% today compared to 62% three months ago.
• The majority indicates that it has been harmed economically as a result of the pandemic: 70% say their income or salary has been reduced; 61% say their income or salary has been stopped; and 52% say they stopped working or became unemployed.
• A majority of 55% say that are dissatisfied with the PA decision during the past several months to stop cooperation and coordination with Israel in the health sector with the aim of combating the coronavirus, 42% are satisfied with that decision.

(5) Legislative and presidential election

• 62% of the public want president Abbas to resign while 31% want him to remain in office. Three months ago, 58% said they want Abbas to resign. Demand for Abbas’ resignation stands at 54% in the West Bank and 74% in the Gaza Strip.
• Level of satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas stands at 31% and dissatisfaction at 63%. Level of satisfaction with Abbas stands at 36% in the West Bank and 24% in the Gaza Strip. Three months ago, satisfaction with Abbas stood at 36% (44% in the West Bank and 24% in the Gaza Strip).
• If new presidential elections were held today and only two were nominated, Mahmoud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 39% and the latter 52% of the vote (compared to 42% for Abbas and 49% for Haniyeh threw months ago). In the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 32% of the vote (compared to 32% three months ago) and Haniyeh receives 62% (compared to 61% three months ago). In the West Bank, Abbas receives 46% (compared to 51% three months ago) and Haniyeh 42% (compared to 38% three months ago). If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Barghouti receives 55% and Haniyeh 39%. If the competition is between prime minister Mohammad Shtayyeh and Haniyyeh, the former receives 41% and the latter 51%.
• We asked in an open-ended question about potential Abbas successors: If president Abbas does not nominate himself in a new election, 22% prefer to see Marwan Barghouti replacing him, while 18% prefer Ismail Haniyeh. Mohammad Dahlan is preferred by 7% (1% in the West Bank and 15% in the Gaza Strip), Mohammad Shtayyeh is preferred by 5%, Mustafa Barghouti by 4%, Khalid Mishal by 3%, and Salam Fayyad by 2%.
• We also asked the public about its willingness to participate in the upcoming elections and if so, to whom it will vote. If new legislative elections were held today with the participation of all factions, 61% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 34% say they will vote for Hamas and 38% say they will vote for Fatah, 8% will vote for all other third parties combined, and 20% are undecided. Three months ago, vote for Hamas stood at 34% and Fatah at 36%. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands today at 45% (compared to 47% three months ago) and for Fatah at 30% (compared to 28% three months ago). In the West Bank, vote for Hamas stands at 23% (compared to 23% three months ago) and Fatah at 46% (compared to 42% three months ago).

(6) Domestic conditions:

• Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip stands at 5% and positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank stands at 16%.
• Nonetheless, perception of safety and security in the Gaza Strip stands at 71% and in the West Bank at 57%.
• 24% of the public say they want to emigrate due to political, security, and economic conditions. The percentage in the Gaza Strip stands at 25% and in the West Bank at 24%. Three months ago, only 18% of West Bankers expressed a desire to emigrate.
• Perception of corruption in PA institutions stands at 80%. Three months ago, 81% expressed a similar view.
• The public is divided over its assessment of the PA: a majority of 62% views it as a burden on the Palestinian people while 33% view it as an asset for the Palestinian people. Three months ago, only 52% viewed the PA as a burden.
• A year and a half since the formation of the Shtayyeh government, findings indicate persistent pessimism. Responding to a question about expectations regarding the ability of the Shtayyeh government to make progress in reconciliation and reunification, 60% expect failure; only 31% expect success. In a similar question about the ability of the new government to organize legislative or legislative and presidential elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, a majority of 58% expects failure and 33% expect success.
• In another question about the ability of the new government to improve economic conditions, a majority of 61% expects failure and 32% expects success.
• An overwhelming majority of the public (80%) is opposed to the arrest by the PA security services of activists who were planning to demonstrate or were demonstrating against corruption in the PA while 17% support these arrests.
• 56% (66% in the West Bank and 41% in the Gaza Strip) believes that it will not receive a fair trial if it finds itself in a Palestinian court while 36% (23% in the West Bank and 55% in the Gaza Strip) believe that will receive a fair trial. Six month ago, 42% said it believes it will receive a fair trial.
• A majority of 64% (75% in the West Bank and 49% in the Gaza Strip) thinks that the Palestinian judiciary rules according to whims and interests; 31% disagree and believe that it rules according to the law. Six month ago, 41% said the judiciary and courts rule according to the law.
• We asked the public about its viewership habits in the last three months. Findings indicate that Al Jazeera TV viewership remains the highest, standing at 19%, followed by Palestine TV (15%), Al Aqsa TV (13%), Maan TV at 12%, Palestine Today TV at 11%, Al Arabiya and al Mayadeen at 4% each, and finally al Manar at 2%.

(7) Reconciliation:

• 37% are optimistic and 59% are pessimistic about the success of reconciliation. three months ago, optimism stood at 29%.
• Similarly, 41% believe that unity will not be resumed and that two separate entities will evolve in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 45% believe unity will eventually return but only after a long time and only 11% believe unity will return soon.

(8) Muslims in China:

• 80% of the Palestinians believe that if press reports about the treatment of the Uighur Muslims in China are true, Palestinians should condemn the Chines policy towards its Muslim community and 15% disagree with that.
• An overwhelming majority of 79% indicates that it does not believe the statement of the Chinese government that the camps built by China to allegedly detain the Uighur Muslims are in fact teaching centers aiming at eradicating extremism; 10% believe the Chinese statement.
• Similarly, an overwhelming majority of 83% believes that world Muslims should express solidarity with the Uighur Muslims against the Chinese government while 10% disagree with that.
• An overwhelming majority of 80% approves of the Turkish president Erdogan’s decision to transform the Hagia Sophia museum into a mosque; 16% disapprove.

(9) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:

• 42% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital. By contrast, 29% believe the first most vital goal should be to obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages, 15% believe that the first and most vital goal should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings; 13% believe it should be to establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians.
• The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today is poverty and unemployment in the eyes of 27%, the spread of corruption in public institutions in the eyes of 25%, the continuation of occupation and settlement activities in the eyes of 24%, the continued siege of the Gaza Strip and the closure of its crossings in the eyes of 13%, and the lack of national unity in the eyes of 10%.

The latest poll on the Palestinian public opinion prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali revealed the following:

• (55.5%) believe that the decision of the Palestinian Authority to end the security and civil coordination with Israel was a right decision, (49.1 %) are among the residents of the West Bank, and (65 %) residents of Gaza Strip.

• (52.3%) believe that the cessation of the security and civil coordination with Israel will negatively affect the economic and living conditions of the Palestinian people.

• (48.7%) believe that ending the security and civil coordination will negatively affect the restriction of the spread of corona epidemic (Covid-19). .

The latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (www.pcpo.org) during the period from June 14-22, 2020 covered a random sample of (1250) Palestinian respondents representing the various demographic specimens of Palestinians (18 years and above) living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. It revealed that (55.5 %) of the Palestinian public believe that the decision of the Palestinian Authority to end the security and civil coordination with Israel was a right decision.

Dr. Nabil Kukali, President and founder of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, said that the suspension of the security and civil coordination came as response to the Israeli position, that is supported by President Tramp to annex vast regions of the West Bank that makes up around (30 %) of the area of the West Bank, including the Jordan Valley region, the region north of the Dead Sea and the settlements to its sovereignty, the matter that the Palestinians consider as ultimate undermining of the opportunity to establish their own independent state.

Dr. Kukali further added that the poll results unveil that there is a fear of deterioration of the economic and living conditions in the Palestinian Territories as well as the mutual cooperation in restricting the spread of the corona-virus (COVID-19).

Dr. Kukali said the details of the key results of this poll are as follows:

Cessation of the Coordination as a Right Decision

(55.5 %) of the Palestinian public believe that the decision of the Palestinian Authority to end the security and civil coordination with Israel was a right decision; (49.1 %) of them are residents of the West Bank, and (65 %) residents of Gaza Strip, whilst (44.5 %) of the Palestinians, (50.9 %) of them in the West Bank and (35 %) in Gaza Strip, believe that the decision was wrong.

The results in detail further reveal that the governorates with the positive attitude towards the decision are in the West Bank in the following order: Al-Bireh & Ramallah (81.8 %), Jerusalem (62.8 %), Jericho (55.6 %), Hebron (52.9 %), Salfit (52.2 %), Nablus (43.3 %), Toubas (37.5 %), Toulkarem (37.3 %), Jenin (34 %), Qalqilia (27.8 %) and Bethlehem with (15.9 %) the least positive attitude.

On the other hand, the governorates with the negative attitude towards the decision are in the West Bank in the following order: Bethlehem (84.1 %), followed by Qalqilia (72.2 %), Jenin (66 %), Toulkarem (62.7 %), Toubas (62.5 %), Salfit (47.8 %), Nablus (56.6 %), Hebron (47.1 %), Jericho (44.4 %), Jerusalem (37.2 %) and Ramallah (18.8 %).

In Gaza Strip, the governorates with the positive attitude towards the PA decision are in the following order: Rafah (78.1 %), followed by Deir al-Balah (75.9 %), Gaza City (63.9 %), Khan Younis (61.1 %) and North Gaza (54.9 %).

Cessation of the Coordination and the Economic Situation

Responding to the question:” Do you think that the cessation of the security and civil coordination with Israel will improve the economic and living conditions of the Palestinian people or rather worsen them ?, (18.7 %) said “will improve them”, (52.3 %) “will worsen them”, (15.8 %) “will have no effect” and (13.2 %) said “I don’t know”.

Cessation of the Coordination and the Restriction of Corona-virus (COVID-19)

With regard to the question:” In view of the coordination between the Palestinian Authority and Israel on restricting COVID-19, do you think that ending the security and civil coordination between them would negatively affect this COVID-19 coordination, or not ?, (48.7 %) said “will negatively affect”, (21.7 %) said “will remain unchanged” and (29.6 %) have no opinion.

Will the Cessation of the Coordination impede the Annexation of Jordan Valley and the Settlements ? In respect of the question:” Some people in the Palestinian Territories believe that ending the security and civil coordination between the PA and Israel will impede the Israeli annexation of vast areas of the West Bank (Jordan Valley and the settlements) by Israel, while others believe that it will boost the annexation of these areas by Israel. Which of these two opinions is closer to yours ?, “(28.1 %) said “it will impede Israel”, (35.1 %) “it will encourage Israel to annex these areas”, (26.5 %) “the decision of the PA will have no effect on the annexation” and (10.3 %) said “I don’t know”.

Seriousness of the Palestinian Authority

Responding to the question:”Up to which extent do you believe that the PA will adhere to its decision of terminating the security and civil coordination with Israel ?”, (12.5 %) said “to a great extent”, (37 %) “to a fair extent”, (35.3 %) “to a little extent” and (15.2 %) have no opinion.

The Need for Civil Coordination

With respect of the question addressed to the West Bank respondents:”If you were in need for a coordination or for getting a job, or going to a hospital in Israel, would you go to the bureaus of the Israeli civil administration or to the Palestinian liaison bureaus “, (22 %) said “I would go to the bureaus of the Israeli civil administration”, whilst (56.6 %) said they “would go to the Palestinian liaison bureaus”, and (21.4 %) said “ I don’t know”.

Methodology of the Survey Study in the Palestinian Territories

Dr. Nabil Kukali, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the respondents' homes. The choices were randomly taken in accordance with a long experienced methodology applied by PCPO from a total of (180) sites, (135) are from the West Bank and (45) from Gaza Strip.

Dr. Kukali has further indicated that the margin of error was (±2.77 %) at a significance level of (95.0%). He added that the rate of the female respondents in this survey was (49.6%) against (50.4%) male respondents. The sample allotment with respect to the residential areas was as follows: (63.0 %) in the West Bank, incl. Eastern Jerusalem and (37.0 %) in Gaza Strip. The average age of the respondents was (31.5) years.

For following up the most recent polls of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, please revert to our website: www.pcpo.org

On the Eve of the Israeli Withdrawal From the Gaza Strip, 84% See it as Victory for Armed Resistance and 40% Give Hamas Most of the Credit for it; But 62% are Opposed to Continued Attacks Against Israelis from the Gaza Strip, 60% Support Collection of Arms from Armed Groups in Gaza, Fateh’s Electoral Standing Improved at Hamas’ Expense (47% To 30%), Optimism Prevails Over Pessimism, and 73% Support the Establishment of A Palestinian State in the Gaza Strip That Would Gradually Extend to the West Bank

7-9 September 2005

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between September 7-9, 2005. The poll deals with Palestinian conditions on the eve of the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, the future of the peace process after disengagement, voting intentions and considerations in the upcoming Palestinian elections, and domestic Palestinian conditions. Total size of the sample is 1368 adults interviewed face to face in the West Bank (892) and the Gaza Strip (476) in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

MAIN FINDINGS

Focus in this poll has been placed on Palestinian perception of the meaning of the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in the context of the implementation of the Israeli disengagement plan and public expectations of the day after with focus on the future of the peace process. The poll also focused on the upcoming Palestinian parliamentary elections in terms of voters’ intentions and behavior.

Three main findings emerge:

1. The Palestinian public views the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip as victory for armed resistance to occupation; it gives Hamas most of the credit for this achievement.
2. In the meanwhile, with the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip underway, public top priorities are shifting: focus is now placed on matters of reconstruction and state building such as economic conditions, corruption, and law and order.
3. The change in priorities is weakening interest in armed resistance and increases demands for its cessation. Moreover, the change in the hierarchy of priorities in weakening the electoral appeal of Hamas and strengthening that of Fateh in anticipation of the upcoming parliamentary elections.

It is evident that the unilateral nature of the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip has generated conflicting dynamics: on the one hand, a greater appreciation of the role of violence, and thereby the need to keep the armed pressure on Israel and to protect the arms of the resisting groups; on the other hand, a greater optimism about the future and the critical and urgent need to begin the process of reconstruction and state building, and thereby the need to maintain the existing ceasefire and the consolidation of Fateh’s position.

(1) Prevailing Conditions on the Eve of Israeli Withdrawal from the Gaza Strip

84% view Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip as victory for armed resistance and 40% give Hamas most of the credit for that achievement But a majority of 62% opposes continued armed resistance from the Gaza Strip and 60% support collection of arms from armed factions in the Strip 77% support the continuation of the current ceasefire and 56% oppose (and 37%) support the suicide attack that took place in Beer Sheva in August Priorities of the public focus on reconstruction and 73% support the creation of a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders that would start in the Gaza Strip and gradually extends to the West Bank Optimistic expectations prevails, particularly in the Gaza Strip, but fears remain Findings show significant increase in the percentage of those who see the Israeli withdrawal as victory for armed resistance from 72% in our last survey in June to 84% in this survey. The largest percentage (40%) gives Hamas most of the credit for this achievement while only 21% give the credit to the PA and 11% to Fateh. Belief that Hamas deserves most of the credit increases among women (44%) compared to men (36%), among holders of the preparatory certificate (47%) compared to holders of university degree (32%), among housewives (45%) compared to employees and farmers (29% each), among those would definitely refuse to buy a lottery ticket (45%) compared to those who would definitely agree to buy one (32%), among those working in the private sector (40%) compared to those working in the public sector (29%), among the married (42%) compared to the unmarried (33%), and among Hamas supporters (69%) compared to supporters of Fateh (24%).

Despite the high public appreciation for armed resistance and for Hamas, findings show a majority opposition to continued armed attacks. 62% oppose (and 35% support) continuation of armed attacks from the Gaza Strip after a full Israeli withdrawal from that area. Opposition to armed attacks from the Gaza Strip after the Israeli withdrawal is greater in Gaza than in the West Bank (65% and 60% respectively). Findings also show that that a majority of 77% supports the continuation of the current ceasefire while only 22% oppose its continuation. This attitude is reflected in the opposition of 56% (and support of 37%) to the suicide attack that took place in August 2005 in Beer Sheva. Opposition to armed attacks is also reflected in the majority support (60%) for collection of arms from armed factions in the Gaza Strip; 37% oppose such a step. Percentage of support for the Gaza collection of arms is equal in the Gaza Strip to that of the West Bank but it increases among those definitely wishing to buy lottery tickets (73%) compared to those definitely opposed to buying lottery tickets (46%) and among Fateh’s supporters (74%) compared to Hamas’ supporters (43%).

The high positive evaluation of the role of violence while simultaneously opposing its continuation reflects a shift in public priorities towards a focus on reconstruction where poverty and unemployment comes at the top of the public list of priorities (40%) followed by occupation and corruption (25% each) and internal anarchy (8%). In June 2005, these percentages stood at 34% for poverty and unemployment, 33% for occupation, 24% for corruption, and 8% for internal anarchy.
Similarly, findings show strong support (73%) for the establishment of a Palestinian state (with the 1967 lines as its borders) that would start in the Gaza Strip and gradually extends to the West Bank. The idea of a Gaza-first state receives identical support in the West Bank as in the Gaza Strip. But it finds greater support among those intending to vote for Fateh in the upcoming parliamentary elections (82%) compared to those intending to vote for Hamas (67%). It is important to point out that the question clearly identifies the borders of the state as those of the 1967, and therefore some or all respondents might have assumed that no further negotiations would be required to determine the final borders of the state. In other words, one should not assume that support for this Gaza-first state is automatically equivalent to support for the state with provisional borders referred to in the Road Map.

The Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip has created an optimistic atmosphere, particularly in the Gaza Strip. For example, findings show optimistic expectations regarding future improvement in the economic conditions among 64% of the public, progress in the peace process among 57%, links between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 57%, the view that the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip is the beginning of the end of the Israeli occupation among 56%, and the view that further withdrawals will take place in the West Bank in the future among 60%. But pessimism remains high, particularly in the West Bank, regarding the possibility of continued Israeli control over the Rafah crossing and thereby the transformation of the Gaza Strip into a big prison (among 57%) and the expectation that the Israeli withdrawal will be followed by internal infighting (among 60%). It is worth noting that the poll was conducted during the period in which Musa Arafat, security advisor to PA president, was assassinated in the Gaza Strip.

(2) Future of the Peace Process after Disengagement

69% support going to comprehensive final status negotiations and only 25% support a gradual interim solution
• Support for the Road Map plan stands at 57% and opposition at 40%
If permanent status negotiations start with the Sharon government, only 30% expect that it would lead to an agreement while 68% believe that agreement is not possible But if a compromise is reached with the current Israeli leadership, 53% believe Sharon is strong enough to convince the Israeli people to accept it and 50% believe Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas is strong enough to convince the Palestinian people to accept it.
63% support (and 35% oppose) a two-state solution whereby the state of Israel is recognized as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine is recognized as the state for the Palestinian people
Level of support for reconciliation between the two peoples after the establishment of a Palestinians state reaches 75% and opposition 24% Findings show strong support (69%) for comprehensive final status negotiations with the aim of reaching a permanent status agreement rather than an interim or gradual solution which receives the support of only 25%. They also show that support for the Road Map remains unchanged at 57% and opposition at 40%. But support for final and comprehensive negotiations does not mean optimism about their outcome with the current Israeli government of Ariel Sharon. Indeed, 68% believe an agreement with Sharon is not possible while only 30% believe that such an agreement is possible. Nonetheless, if a compromise agreement is reached with the current Israeli leadership, 53% of the Palestinians believe that Sharon is strong enough to be able to convince the Israelis to accept it. Moreover, 50% of the Palestinians believe the Palestinian president, Mahmud Abbas, is strong enough to convince the Palestinians to accept it.

A compromise agreement acceptable to 63% of the Palestinians is one based on a mutual recognition of identity whereby a Palestinian state is established next to the state of Israel and all final status issues are resolved. Israel in this case, would be recognized as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people. Opposition to this compromise reaches 35%. (In December 2004, identical results regarding this compromise were obtained.) If a two-state solution is reached, 75% of the Palestinians would support reconciliation between the two peoples. Support for facets of reconciliation varies with 87% supporting open borders for labor and goods between the two states, 70% supporting joint economic ventures and institutions, 38% supporting enacting laws prohibiting incitement, 36% supporting joint political institutions aiming at creating a confederation between the two states, and 10% supporting text books that would recognize the state of Israel and does not call for the return of all Palestine to the Palestinians.

(3) Voting Intentions and Considerations in the Upcoming Legislative Elections

74% say they will participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections; 47% of the likely voters will vote for Fateh, 30% for Hamas, 11% for other groups, and 11% remain undecided Ability to fight corruption is the first top voting consideration followed by name of list or political party, ability to improve economic conditions, ability to reach a peace agreement with Israel, and ability to protect national unity.
Hamas is the most able to fight corruption and Fateh is the most able to improve economic conditions, move the peace process forward, and protect national unity Mahmud Abbas is the preferred candidate for the presidency and Marwan Barghouti for the position of the vice president and the position of prime minister Findings show that 74% of the Palestinians will participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections in January 2006. Voting intentions among the likely participants indicate an increase of Fateh’s support from 44% last June to 47% in this poll and a drop in Hamas’ support from 33% to 30% during the same period. 11% will vote for other factions and groups and 11% remain undecided. From among eight vital considerations in voting for election lists, # (1) is the ability to fight corruption receiving 24%, # (2) the name or affiliation of the list with 19%, # (3) ability to improve economic conditions with 15%, # (4) ability to reach a peace agreement with Israel with 14%, # (5) ability to maintain national unity with 10%, # (6) ability to enforce law and order with 8%, # (7) ability to protect refugee rights in negotiations with 6%, and finally # (8) ability to insure the continuation of the intifada with 4%.

Hamas is the most able to fight corruption (receiving 46% vs. 37% to Fateh) and to insure the continuation of the intifada (receiving 62% vs. 24% to Fateh). Fateh is perceived as the most able to improve the economy (receiving 46% vs. 31% for Hamas), to push the peace process forward (receiving 64% for Fateh vs. 21% for Hamas), to protect national unity (receiving 46% vs. 37% for Hamas), to enforce law and order (receiving 54% vs. 31% for Hamas) and to protect refugee rights (receiving 44% for Fateh and 37% for Hamas).

In a closed question, in a contest for the position of PA president between Mahmud Abbas (Fateh), Mahmud Zahhar (Hamas), and Mustafa Barghouti (others), Abbas comes first with 44% followed by Zahhar with 21% and Barghouti with 19%. In a closed question, in a contest over the position of vice president, Marwan Barghouti receives the greatest level of support with 24% followed by Mahmud Zahhar with 14%, Ismail Haniyyah with 13%, Mohammad Dahlan and Mustafa Barghouti with 9% each, Farouq Qaddoumi with 8%, and finally Ahmad Qurai and Saeb Erikat with 6% each. In a closed question, in a contest over the position of prime minister, Marwan Barghouti comes first with 30% followed by Zahhar with 22%, Mustafa Barghouti with 17%, and Qurai and Dahlan with 8% each. Public satisfaction with the performance of PA president Mahmud Abbas increases from 60% last June to 64% in this poll.

(4) Domestic Conditions and Political Sympathies

87% believe that corruption exists in PA institutions; among those, 61% believe that corruption will increase or remain the same in the future Only 36% say that their security and safety and that of their family is insured these days and 64% say it is not Positive evaluation of Palestinian democracy stands at 32% The popularity of Fateh stands at 39% and Hamas at 27% (compared to 41% and 30% respectively in June 2005) Findings show that an overwhelming majority (87%) believes that corruption exists in PA institutions. A majority among those (61%) believes that this corruption will increase or remain the same in the future. Only 33% believe that corruption will decrease in the future. The percentage of those who believe corruption does not exist in the PA does not exceed 9%.
Findings also show that about two thirds (64%) believe that these days they and their families lack security and safety while only 36% say they now have security and safety. A clear difference exists between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, with more Gazans feeling safe and secure than West Bankers (55% to 25% respectively).

As for the status of democracy in the Palestinian areas, 32% (compared to 37% last June) give it a positive evaluation.
Popularity of Fateh stands today at 39% compared to 41% last June. Fateh’s popularity in the West Bank is almost identical to its popularity in the Gaza Strip (38% and 40% respectively). Hamas’ popularity dropped from 30% to 27% during the same period. Hamas’ popularity is higher in the Gaza Strip (32%) compared to the West Bank (25%).

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This PSR survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Ramallah.

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll

DESPITE NEGATIVE EVALUATION OF PALESTINIAN CONDITIONS SINCE THE ELECTION OF ABU MAZIN, AND DESPITE THE CONTINUED RISE IN THE POPULARITY OF HAMAS, EXPECTED ELECTIONS’ OUTCOME GIVES FATEH 44% AND HAMAS 33% OF THE SEATS OF THE NEXT PLC

9-11 June 2005

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between June 9-11, 2005. The poll deals with public evaluation of Palestinian conditions since the election of Abu Mazin, expected outcome of the next parliamentary elections, the participation of Hamas in the political process, and the disengagement plan. Total size of the sample is 1320 adults interviewed face to face in the West Bank (825) and the Gaza Strip (495) in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org

MAIN FINDINGS

Focus in this poll has been placed on domestic matters, especially the balance of power between factions and the popularity of leaders as well as public evaluation of conditions since the election of Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazin) as president of the PA. Three findings emerge from the poll:

1. The competition between Fateh and Hamas is becoming fierce. The poll was conducted soon after the second round of local elections which were dominated by the two factions. Despite the impressive ability of Hamas to increase its popularity during the past six months, Fateh remains stronger, particularly in the West Bank. But Fateh lacks a majority support and needs to forge a coalition with other forces in order to be able to govern. Hamas’ strength lies in the public belief that it is clean and most able to fight corruption. Moreover, many of Hamas’ supporters believe that its decision to participate in the parliamentary elections is a sign of moderation. Fateh’s strength lies in the public belief that it is most able to bring about a peace agreement, improve the economy, and enforce law and order.
2. Poll findings show that in the competition among Palestinian leaders for public support, Marwan Barghouti emerges as the most popular followed by Mahmud Abbas and Ahmad Qurai. In the second line of leadership, six figures are prominent, two of which are Hamas leaders, Mahmud Zahhar and Ismail Haniyyeh, and four are nationalists: Mohammad Dahlan, Saeb Erekat, Farouq Qaddoumi and Mustafa Barghouti. These results demonstrate one of Hamas’ weaknesses: the inability, due to Israeli assassination policy, to put forward popular and charismatic leaders.
3. Despite the negative public assessment of Palestinian conditions since the election of Abu Mazin, a significant part of the public does not necessarily blame him for that. Most Palestinians probably put the blame on Israel. Nonetheless, it is likely that Fateh and Abu Mazin will suffer the consequences for the deterioration of Palestinian conditions as the public tends to believe that it is Fateh, not Hamas, which is able to change these conditions. With Fateh seen impotent, it loses its advantage over Hamas in delivering better outcomes with regard to the peace process, the economy, and the enforcement of law and order.

(1) Public Evaluation of Palestinian Conditions since the Election of Abu Mazin

Majority sees conditions deteriorating or remaining the same since the election of Abu Mazin But 60% say they are satisfied with Abu Mazin’s performance and 35% say they are unsatisfied The public is evenly split over Abu Mazin’s decision to postpone the elections and only 39% see the outcome of his visit to the US as beneficial to the national interest From among eight major areas of public concern, a majority believes that things have either stayed the same or became worse in six areas and improved in one area, while the public is divided in half over one other area. Conditions are the same or worse in the following areas: settlements, economic conditions, democracy and human rights, enforcement of law and order, fight against corruption, and internal relations among Palestinian factions. The only area in which progress is seen is the release of prisoners by Israel. The area in which the public is divided is related to occupation measures such as closures and checkpoints. Overall, only 3% believe that things in general have improved a lot since the election of Abu Mazin while 45% believe that things improved a little, 38% believe things remained the same, and 12% believe that things have worsened. Despite this negative assessment, 60% are satisfied and 35% are unsatisfied with Abu Mazin’s performance since his election. Satisfaction increases in cities (65%) compared to refugee camps (56%), among illiterates (67%) compared to holders of BA degree (53%), among housewives (65%) compared to students (53%), among those most willing to buy a lottery ticket (73%) compared to those most unwilling to buy a lottery ticket (46%), and among supporters of Fateh (77%) compared to supporters of Hamas (45%).
39% believe Abu Mazin’s latest visit to Washington has been beneficial to Palestinian interests while the rest is divided between those who think it has not been useful (30%), neither useful nor un-useful (17%), and those with no opinion (14%). Moreover, 44% are satisfied and 46% are not satisfied with Abu Mazin’s decision to postpone legislative elections.

(2) Popularity of Factions and Expected Outcome of Next Parliamentary Elections

Support for Fateh and Hamas increases In the next parliamentary elections, 44% will vote for Fateh and 33% for Hamas Perception of corruption plays a significant role in electoral behavior Fateh is most able to deliver on most requirements of voters Marwan Barghouti is the most popular Palestinian leader Findings show continued increase in the popularity of Hamas standing today at 30%, compared to 25% last March and 18% last December. Fateh’s popularity stands at 41% compared to 36% last March and 40% last December. Fateh’s popularity is the same in the Gaza Strip (41%) as in the West Bank (42%). But Hamas’ popularity is greater in the Gaza Strip (35%) compared to the West Bank (27%), among women (34%) compared to men (26%), among students (36%) compared to merchants (19%), among the most religious (34%) compared to the least religious (13%), among the most willing to buy a lottery ticket (46%) compared to the most unwilling to buy a lottery ticket (22%), and among those employed in the private sector (29%) compared to those employed in the public sector (22%).

Findings show that the level of participation in the next legislative elections will be 77% and the outcome of those elections will be as follows: 44% for Fateh, 33% for Hamas and Islamic Jihad, 3% for the left, and 8% for independent lists. 12% are undecided. If the contest is between two lists only, one for Fateh and headed by Marwan Barghouti and one for Hamas and headed by Mahmud Zahhar, 47% would vote for Fateh and 38% for Hamas. 15% would vote for neither list or do not know to whom they would give their vote. Fateh’s list wins over Hamas’ in nine electoral districts: Toubas, Salfit, Jericho, Jenin, Bethlehem, Hebron, Khanyounis, Dier al Balah, and Rafah. Hamas wins in three districts: Tulkarm, Jabalia, and Gaza City. In the remaining four districts, Fateh wins with a slight advantage over Hamas.

The most important consideration in voting for individual candidates in the next legislative elections is going to be the integrity and lack of corruption of the candidate. >From among eight considerations in voting for election lists, number (1) is the ability to fight corruption, (2) ability to reach a peace agreement with Israel, (3) ability to improve economic conditions, (4) ability to maintain national unity, (5) ability to protect refugee rights in negotiations, (6) the name or affiliation of the list, (7) ability to enforce law and order, and finally (8) ability to insure the continuation of the intifada.

Fateh receives greater appreciation (compared to Hamas, left, or independent and new parties) for its ability to deliver on five of seven considerations while Hamas receives greater appreciation for its ability to deliver on two. Fateh is more able to improve the economy (46% for Fateh and 34% for Hamas), to reach a peace agreement with Israel (65% for Fateh and 22% for Hamas), to protect national unity (43% for Fateh and 37% for Hamas), to protect refugee rights (44% for Fateh and 36% for Hamas), and to enforce law and order (52% for Fateh and 32% for Hamas). Hamas is more able to fight corruption (47% for Hamas and 37% for Fateh) and to insure the continuation of the intifada (64% for Hamas and 23% for Fateh).

Major public concerns are organized in the following order of importance: (1) poverty and unemployment (34%), (2) occupation measures (33%), (3) corruption (24%), (4) internal anarchy and chaos (8%). After legislative elections, the public would like to see the following order of priorities: (1) improve the economy, (2) fight corruption, (3) reach a peace agreement with Israel, (4) enforce law and order, and finally, (5) maintain national unity.

In an open question, Marwan Barghouti receives the greatest level of support to lead Fateh’s election list in the next legislative elections receiving the support of 14% of respondents followed by Mohammad Dahlan (5%), Ahmad Quarai and Farouq Qaddoumi (4% each), while 57% have not decided yet or do not know.

If presidential elections were held today, Abu Mazin, in an open question, receives the largest percentage of support (24%) followed by Marwan Barghouti (12%), and Mahmud Zahhar (8%). 36% have not decided or do not know. In an open question regarding nomination for vice president, Marwan Barghouti receives the largest percentage of support (11%), followed by Ahmad Quarai (5%), Mustafa Barghouti and Mohammad Dahlan (4% each), Mahmud Zahhar and Saeb Erikat (3% each), and Ismail Haniyyeh and Farouq Qaddoumi (2% each). 52% have not decided or do not know. For the position of prime minister after the next legislative elections, Ahamd Qurai, in an open question, receives the largest percentage of support (9%) followed by Marwan Barghouti (7%), Mahmud Zahhar (5%), Mohammad Dahlan and Mustafa Barghouti (3% each). 56% have not decided or do not know.

(3) Hamas’ Participation in the Political Process

40% believe that the willingness of Hamas to participate in the next parliamentary elections means that the movement is more willing today to embrace the peace process but 20% believe it means the opposite If Hamas wins the majority of PLC seats, 40% believe the peace process will be stopped or slowed down and 30% believe it would have the opposite effect 44% believe economic conditions will become better and 22% believe they will become worse if Hamas wins a parliamentary majority; moreover, 44% believe the status of democracy will get better and 21% believe it will get worse if Hamas wins a parliamentary majority Findings show that a large percentage (40%) sees in Hamas’ willingness to participate in the next parliamentary elections a sign of moderation on the part of the Islamist movement, including a more willingness to accept the peace process. Only 20% believe that Hamas’ decision means the movement is adopting a more hard line position on the peace process. One third believes it reflects no change at all. Despite these findings, 39% believe that if Hamas actually wins a parliamentary majority in the next elections, the peace process will suffer while 30% believe it will benefit and 24% believe it will not be affected. Findings also show that 44% do not believe that a Hamas parliamentary majority would have negative effects on economic conditions or the future of Palestinian democracy. It is noticeable that while Fateh and Hamas supporters agree (39% each) that Hamas’ participation in elections is a sign of moderation, Fateh supporters are worried about the future of the peace process, economic conditions, and the future of democracy if Hamas wins a majority. Hamas supporters on the other hand are highly optimistic about the future of the economy and democracy and cautiously optimistic about the future of the peace process if Hamas wins a majority.

(4) Domestic Conditions: Reform, Democracy, Corruption, and PA Performance

94% support internal and external calls for reform, and 63% believe that the PA is currently implementing fundamental reform measures while positive evaluation of PA democracy rises to 37% But perception of corruption is still very high reaching 87% and only 39% believe that those responsible for corruption are often charged while 95% believe public hiring is done through wasta (connections) and only 36% feel safe and secure.
Positive evaluation of the performance of the presidency stands at 47%, police and justice system at 42% each, cabinet at 40%, PLC at 36%, and opposition groups at 51% Findings indicate an increase in the level of positive evaluation of Palestinian democracy from 24% in June 2004 to 37% in this poll. But the percentage of support for reform calls remains very high (94%) despite the fact that a majority of 63% believes that the PA is currently implementing fundamental reforms.

But PA reform efforts do not seem to include a fight against corruption as 87% believe that corruption exists in the PA and 95% believe that wasta (or connections) is essential in public hiring. The call for reform seems to include a demand for the enforcement of law and order as only 36% say they feel that their safety and security and that of their families are guaranteed these days.
Findings indicate an increase in the positive evaluation of PA performance compared to the situation in September 2004. For example, positive evaluation of the presidency has increased from 42% to 47%, for the cabinet from 33% to 40%, for the PLC from 30% to 36%, for the judiciary from 39% to 42%. A slight decrease in the positive evaluation of the performance of opposition groups has been registered from 53% to 51% during the same period.

(5) Peace Process and the Disengagement Plan

Short term negotiations’ priorities are organized as follows: release of prisoners, stopping the building of the barrier, return of laborers to work inside Israel, freezing of settlement construction, and removal of checkpoints Sharon’s disengagement plan is viewed by 72% as victory for armed resistance and 66% believe that armed confrontations have helped Palestinians achieve national rights; but only 28% believe the PA has high capacity to control conditions in the Gaza Strip after the Israeli disengagement Two thirds oppose continuation of armed attacks against Israelis from the Gaza Strip if the Israeli withdrawal is complete; but 52% believe that settlement building will increase in the West Bank in the coming years Despite strong support for the current ceasefire (77%), a majority of 60% opposes collection of arms from Palestinian factions and armed groups Findings show that release of prisoners is the main short term negotiating issue on the mind of Palestinians followed by the need to stop the separation barrier, the return of laborers to work inside Israel, the freezing of settlement construction, and the removal of checkpoints. Interest in the issue of prisoners increases in the Gaza Strip (40%) compared to the West Bank (30%), while the issue of the barrier is more important to West Bankers (28%) than Gazans (16%) whose second most urgent issue is the return of laborers to work inside Israel (21%).

Findings also show that a majority of 72% view the Israeli disengagement plan as victory for armed resistance. Moreover, two thirds of the public continue to view armed confrontations as helping achieve national rights in ways that negotiations could not. These results are similar to those obtained by PSR during the last two years. But findings also show that a minority of 28% believe that the PA has a high capacity to control conditions in the Gaza Strip after the Israeli withdrawal.

If the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza is complete, two thirds would oppose and 30% would support the continuation of armed attacks from the Strip. Opposition to such attacks in case of a complete withdrawal stood at 59% on June 2004, 60% on December 2004, and 66% last March. It is noticeable that opposition to armed attacks from Gaza after a complete withdrawal is similar in the West Bank to that of the Gaza Strip (65% and 68% respectively). But the poll found that 52% believe that settlement construction will increase in the West Bank during the coming years. It is probably due to this reason that despite the widespread support for the current ceasefire (77%), a majority of 60% oppose collection of arms from armed factions.

Support for collection of arms in the Gaza Strip (37%) is similar to that in the West Bank (39%). Support increases in cities (41%) compared to refugee camps (32%), among holders of BA degree (42%) compared to illiterates (26%), among the most willing to buy a lottery ticket (48%) compared to those most unwilling to buy a lottery ticket (25%), and among supporters of Fateh (50%) compared to supporters of Hamas (26%).

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This PSR survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Ramallah.

Despite Negative Evaluation of Palestinian Conditions Since the Election of Abu Mazin, and Despite the Continued Rise in the Popularity of Hamas, Exprcted Elections’ Outcome Gives Fateh 44% and Hamas 33% of the Seats of the Next PLC

9-11 June 2005

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between June 9-11, 2005. Total size of the sample is 1320 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

(1) Public Evaluation of Palestinian Conditions since the Election of Abu Mazin

From among eight major areas of public concern, a majority believes that things have either stayed the same or became worse in six areas and improved in one area, while the public is divided in half over one other area. Conditions are the same or worse in the following areas: settlements, economic conditions, democracy and human rights, enforcement of law and order, fight against corruption, and internal relations among Palestinian factions. The only area in which progress is seen is the release of prisoners by Israel. The area in which the public is divided is related to occupation measures such as closures and checkpoints.
Overall, only 3% believe that things in general have improved a lot since the election of Abu Mazin while 45% believe that things improved a little, 39% believe things remained the same, and 12% believe that things have worsened.
Despite this negative assessment, 60% are satisfied and 35% are unsatisfied with Abu Mazin’s performance since his election.
39% believe Abu Mazin’s latest visit to Washington has been beneficial to Palestinian interests while the rest is divided between those who think it has not been useful (30%), neither useful nor un-useful (17%), and those with no opinion (14%).
44% are satisfied and 46% are not satisfied with Abu Mazin’s decision to postpone legislative elections.

(2) Increase in the Popularity of Hamas and Fateh

Findings show continued increase in the popularity of Hamas standing today at 30%, compared to 25% last March and 18% last December. Hamas’ popularity is greater in the Gaza Strip (35%) compared to the West Bank (27%).
Fateh’s popularity stands at 41% compared to 36% last March and 40% last December. Fateh’s popularity is the same in the Gaza Strip (41%) as in the West Bank (42%).

(3) Voting Intentions and Considerations in the Upcoming Legislative Elections

Findings show that the level of participation in the next legislative elections will be 77% and the outcome of those elections will be as follows: 44% for Fateh, 33% for Hamas and Islamic Jihad, 3% for the left, and 8% for independent lists. 12% are undecided.

• If the contest is between two lists only, one for Fateh and headed by Marwan Barghouti and one for Hamas and headed by Mahmud Zahhar, 47% would vote for Fateh and 38% for Hamas. 15% would vote for neither list or do not know to whom they would give their vote.

• The most important consideration in voting for individual candidates in the next legislative elections is going to be the integrity and lack of corruption of the candidate.
From among eight considerations in voting for election lists, number (1) is the ability to fight corruption, (2) ability to reach a peace agreement with Israel, (3) ability to improve economic conditions, (4) ability to maintain national unity, (5) ability to protect refugee rights in negotiations, (6) the name or affiliation of the list, (7) ability to enforce law and order, and finally (8) ability to insure the continuation of the intifada.
Fateh receives greater appreciation (compared to Hamas, left, or independent and new parties) for its ability to deliver on five of seven considerations while Hamas receives greater appreciation for its ability to deliver on two. Fateh is more able to improve the economy (46% for Fateh and 34% for Hamas), to reach a peace agreement with Israel (65% for Fateh and 22% for Hamas), to protect national unity (43% for Fateh and 37% for Hamas), to protect refugee rights (44% for Fateh and 36% for Hamas), and to enforce law and order (52% for Fateh and 32% for Hamas). Hamas is more able to fight corruption (47% for Hamas and 37% for Fateh) and to insure the continuation of the intifada (64% for Hamas and 23% for Fateh).
Major public concerns are organized in the following order of importance: (1) poverty and unemployment (34%), (2) occupation measures (33%), (3) corruption (24%), (4) internal anarchy and chaos (8%).
After legislative elections, the public would like to see the following order of priorities: (1) improve the economy, (2) fight corruption, (3) reach a peace agreement with Israel, (4) enforce law and order, and finally, (5) maintain national unity.
In an open question, Marwan Barghouti receives the greatest level of support to lead Fateh’s election list in the next legislative elections receiving the support of 14% of respondents followed by Mohammad Dahlan (5%), Ahmad Quarai and Farouq Qaddoumi (4% each), while 56% have not decided yet or do not know.
If presidential elections were held today, Abu Mazin, in an open question, receives the largest percentage of support (24%) followed by Marwan Barghouti (12%), and Mahmud Zahhar (8%). 36% have not decided or do not know.

• In an open question regarding nomination for vice president, Marwan Barghouti receives the largest percentage of support (11%), followed by Ahmad Quarai (5%), Mustafa Barghouti and Mohammad Dahlan (4% each), Mahmud Zahhar and Saeb Erikat (3% each), and Ismail Haniyyeh and Farouq Qaddoumi (2% each). 52% have not decided or do not know.
For the position of prime minister after the next legislative elections, Ahamd Qurai, in an open question, receives the largest percentage of support (9%) followed by Marwan Barghouti (7%), Mahmud Zahhar (5%), Mohammad Dahlan and Mustafa Barghouti (3% each). 56% have not decided or do not know.
This PSR survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Ramallah.

IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SHARON DISENGAGEMENT PLAN, WIDE SUPPORT FOR THE EGYPTIAN INITIATIVE AND FOR VARIOUS FORMS OF INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE, BUT ENDING ARMED ATTACKS FROM THE GAZA STRIP IS CONTINGENT ON A FULL ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL FROM IT

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between June 24 and 27, 2004. Total size of the sample is 1320 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3% and rejection rate 2%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki or Ayoub Mustafa, at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

SUMMARY OF RESULTS:

(1) Withdrawal from Gaza

• Little less than two-thirds of the Palestinians (64%) support the Egyptian initiative and 32% oppose it. But support for its different components varies: 81% for unification of the security services under the control of the cabinet, 87% for the appointment of a strong minister of interior, but only 53% for the deployment of Egyptian military advisers and security officials in the Gaza Strip.

• High levels of support for various forms of international presence in the context of the Sharon disengagement plan: 60% for the deployment of an armed international or multilateral force in the Gaza Strip that would be responsible for security in the Rafah international border crossing and the Egyptian-Palestinian border; 61% for the deployment of such forces in the settlements in order to take custody of them and maintain control until an Israeli-Palestinian agreement on their future is reached; 64% for an international presence aimed at rebuilding PA security services; 70% for an international presence aimed at rebuilding PA civil institutions and ministries; and 78% for an international presence aimed at rebuilding the Palestinian economy and infrastructure.

• Support for the modified Sharon disengagement plan as approved by the Israeli government does not exceed 34% and only one quarter believes the plan will actually be implemented. In March 2004, 73% welcomed the original plan when it was first announced and only 24% believed that Sharon was serious about implementing it.

• As long as the withdrawal from Gaza is not complete, a majority of 55% would support continuation of armed attacks from the Gaza Strip after the withdrawal, but a majority of 59% would oppose such attacks if the withdrawal from the Strip was complete.

• An almost even split on the future of the homes in the settlements with 49% wanting to keep them intact and 48% wanting them destroyed. Support for the destruction of the settlements’ homes increases among Gazans reaching 58%.

• A slight majority of 50% believes the Bush letter to Sharon on borders and refugees is important in shaping a permanent agreement with the Israelis and 45% believe it is not important.

• After the Israeli withdrawal form Gaza, 59% are worried about possible Palestinian infighting, only 30% believe the PA has high capacity to control matters after the withdrawal, and only 31% believe life in Gaza will fully resume in an orderly manner. Nonetheless, 59% believe the PA will be the body that will assume control over the Gaza Strip after the withdrawal and only 26% believe it will fall into the hands of factions and armed groups.

• An overwhelming majority (90%) supports Hamas’ participation in the administration of the Gaza Strip after the Israel withdrawal. It terms of the preferred percentage for Hamas’ role in decision making, the median was 50% (and the mean 51%) for those supporting the participation of Hamas. The median for the whole sample was 50% and the mean 45%.

(2) Peace Process: Intifada, Victory, Armed attacks, and Reconciliation

• Despite the fact that 69% believe that armed attacks have helped achieve national rights that negotiations could not achieve, only 40% believe the Palestinians came out winners so far in the ongoing armed conflict that has started in September 2000 and 37% believe no one won while 16% believe Israel is the winner. On the other hand, 48% believe the majority of the Palestinians think that the Palestinians are the winners, and 51% believe the majority of Israelis think Israel is the winners.

• A majority of 59% supports continued suicide bombings inside Israel if an opportunity arises. Despite this, support for mutual cessation of violence remains very high (79%) and if such cessation is obtained, a majority of 55% would support, and 41% would oppose, taking measures by the PA to prevent further armed attacks on Israeli targets.

• Pessimism prevails: two thirds believe the Roadmap has collapsed; only 20% believe the two sides will soon return to negotiations and violence will stop; and 77% feel that their safety and that of their families are not assured these days.

• Nonetheless, support for reconciliation between the two peoples remains very high (72%) even though 43% believe such reconciliation is not possible ever.

(3) Local and National Elections

• Opposition to holding local elections in stages is greater than support (49% to 45%) as more people want to hold these elections in all cities, towns and villages simultaneously. If elections do take place now, a majority of 52% believe it will not be fair and only 38% believe it will be fair. In any case, only 44% believe the PA is serious about holding local elections in September 2004.

• If local elections were held soon and were fair, 34% of the respondents think Fateh candidates would win, 27% think Hamas candidates would win, 18% think independents would win, and only 9% think family candidates would win. As to how the respondents themselves would behave, 28% said they will vote for Hamas and Islamic Jihad candidates, 26% for Fateh’s, 17% for independents, and 9% for family candidates. In the Gaza Strip, 32% will vote for Hamas and Islamic Jihad candidates, 23% for Fateh’s, 18% for independents, and 7% for family candidates.

• A solid majority of 70% supports the participation of refugee camp residents in the municipal council elections within which these camps are located, 23% support holding separate elections for these camps to elect local committees for the camps, and only 5% oppose the participation of refugee camps in the local elections.

• Two thirds oppose the proposed amendments to local election law calling for the election of the head of the local council by the elected members of the council and not directly by the voters.

• With regard to the general political elections, almost three quarters support giving women a quota. The median for the preferred percentage of the quota for those supporting such a quota was 30% and the mean 35%.The median for the whole sample was 20% and the mean 25%.

• A majority of 88% encourages the participation of Hamas in the general legislative and presidential elections if they take place soon.

(4) Reform, Democracy, and Corruption

• An overwhelming majority (92%) supports inside and outside calls for fundamental political reforms in the PA. But only 40% of the public believe the PA is actually carrying out such reform.

• Positive evaluation of the status of democracy in the Palestinian areas does not exceed 25%, while only 20% believe that freedom of the press exist in PA areas (37% believe it exists to some extent). Despite this, 50% believe that people can criticize the PA without fear.

• 87% believe that corruption exists in the institutions of the PA, and among those more than two thirds believe that this corruption will remain the same or increase in the future. Moreover, two thirds believe that officials and others involved in or accused of corruption are often not charged or brought to account.

(5) Popularity of Yasir Arafat, Marwan Barghouti, and Political Factions

• In an open question (without a list of names presented to respondents) regarding the election of the PA president, a majority of 54% votes for Yasir Arafat. No one else received 2% or more of the vote with the exception of Marwan Barghouti and Mahmud Zahhar (2% for each). But in a closed question (with a list of only two names presented to respondents) Arafat received 49% and Haidar Abdul Shafi 10%. Since 1994, the name of former Hamas leader Ahmad Yasin was presented. As of the next poll, Mahmud Zahhar’s name (and that of Marwan Barghouti) will also be in the list along with Arafat. Since he received less than 2% in the open question, Abdul Shafi’s name will not be in the list of candidates for the office of the president.

• In another open question, this time regarding the election of a vice president, Ahmad Qurai (Abu Ala’) received 9%, followed by Marwan Barghouti (8%), Saeb Erikat (6%), Mohammad Dahlan, Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazin), and Mahmud Zahhar (3% each), and Haidar Abdul Shafi (2%). But in a closed question (with a list not containing Zahhar or any other Hamas leader, as the names of Rantisi and Yasin were dropped) Barghouti came first with 25%, followed by Erikat (9%), Ahamd Qurai’ and Haidar Abdul Shafi (6%), Hanan Ashrawi (5%), Mohammad Dahlan and Farouq Qaddoumi (4% each), and Mahmud Abbas (3%). It is worth noting that Barghouti received more votes in the Gaza Strip (27%) than in the West Bank (24%), and that Dahlan managed to strengthen his support in Gaza (to 8%) while receiving only 1% in the West Bank. Last March, Barghouti received the support of 16%. The results show that the trial of Barghouti has positively affected his popularity as 67% of the public said the trial has made him more qualified to be a Palestinian leader.

• The popularity of Fateh has remained unchanged from last March (28%) but that of Hamas increased from 20% to 24% during the same period. In the Gaza Strip, Hamas’ support reached 29% compared to 27% for Fateh. Combined Islamist strength (Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and independent Islamists) increased from 29% last March to 35% (40% in the Gaza Strip) in this poll. This is the highest level of support for the Islamists since 1995. Surprisingly, 39% of the respondents said that they thought that the assassination of Hamas leaders (Yasin and Rantisi) has weakened the movement while only 36% said it has strengthened it.