MIFTAH
Wednesday, 3 July. 2024
 
Your Key to Palestine
The Palestinian Initiatives for The Promotoion of Global Dialogue and Democracy
 
 
 

The Middle East region has always been mined land, and treading its terrain necessitates savvy strategizing to avert embroilment in this explosive atmosphere. With the passing of 2003, the major players are hurriedly reassessing their positions in order to safeguard their survival.

Turkey, desiring to be the dominant link between the West and the Middle East, has been strengthening its ties with Iran and Syria, while making a “water for arms” deal with Israel. Syria is calling on all nations in the Middle East to rid themselves of nuclear arms and wants to restart permanent peace negotiations with Israel. Libya has taken a unilateral decision to end its weapons of mass destruction program and like Syria wants to open diplomatic relations with Israel. Finally, Iran last week signed the additional protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and is looking to restore full diplomatic relations with Egypt.

Turkey has managed to seal a deal with Israel, which will see millions of gallons of fresh water shipped in giant tankers across the eastern Mediterranean and into Israeli ports in exchange for Israel selling an unspecified number of Israeli tanks as well as air force technology. While cementing its flourishing relationship with Israel, Turkey was also busy hosting the Syrian president. Since the icy relationship between the two countries reached its peak four years ago, a process of cooperation has steadily improved their relations, as trade and movement of persons between the two states has accelerated over the past two years. Turkey is also improving its relations with Iran, as they have a shared interest in the future of Iraq as well as such topics as water, gas and trade.

Syria, meanwhile, has also been busy trying to heed U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell advice to "get out of the hole" of being an international pariah. Accordingly, Syria has tried to open negotiations with Israel for a permanent peace. At the beginning of December, Assad called on the United States to support renewed negotiations with Israel, in the hopes of normalizing relations between the two states. However, Assad stressed that negotiations should resume where they left off in January 2000 between his late father Hafez and Sharon's Labour predecessor Ehud Barak, but Sharon is adamant that they should start from scratch.

Sadly, Assad’s efforts were met by an Israeli promise to build 900 new homes on the Golan Heights, which Israel seized from Syria in 1967 and annexed 14 years later. Israeli Agriculture Minister Yisrael Katz said, "the aim is to send an unequivocal message: the Golan is an integral part of Israel." In comments published by the Israeli newspaper, Yediot Ahronot, he added, "the goal is for al-Assad to see from the windows of his home the Israeli Golan thriving and flourishing." This was seen by many as a slap in the face to President Assad attempts to restart talks and elicited a stern warning from Paris.

Syria, which has been under mounting US pressure, wants to avoid threats of sanctions. The US is demanding Syria fulfill the promises it made regarding activities on the Syrian-Iraqi border and a crackdown on militants, such as Hezbollah. Clearly, Syria’s call to have peace talks with Israel is part of a strategy to ease US threats. However, realizing this, Sharon is unlikely to aid Syria in its strategy, preferring instead to keep his enemy shackled in a diplomatic corner.

Libya is fairing better than Syria, having been applauded by the international community for announcing that it would stop developing nuclear, chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction, after nine months of secret negotiations with the United States and Britain. Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi said, "from now on, Libya will be at the forefront of countries opening up so that the world can be rid of all weapons of mass destruction.” This led US President George Bush to praise Libya for taking "essential steps," adding that he “hoped other leaders will find an example in Libya's announcement."

Further, Libya has signaled its desire to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. Last year, Labor MK Ephraim Sneh and Shinui legislator Ilan Shalgi met with the son of Muammar Gadhafi and reportedly were optimistics that relations between the two states could be established. Israeli Foreign Ministry official Ron Prosor departed for Paris ten days ago to investigate the possibility of opening an initial channel of dialogue with Libya. While both states publicly remain skeptical of improved relations, according to the Kuwaiti newspaper, Al-Siyasa, senior Israeli and Libyan officials have met at the American embassy in Vienna last Friday and agreed that a delegation of Israeli officials, including members of Israel’s spy agency, the Mossad, would visit Libya during the second half of January. Moreover, the newspaper quoted European diplomats stating that the purpose of the meeting is to "end hostility between the two countries and create normal ties between them."

With its recent actions, Libya is hoping it could gain lucrative oil contracts blocked by US sanctions as well as reap other economic benefits. The United States imposed sanctions in 1986, accusing Libya of supporting terrorist groups. Ten years later, America passed the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act that threatened to penalize the US partners of European companies that did significant business in Libya and Iran. Muammar Gadhafi wants to return his country to the good graces of the international community. While the US administration has been pleased with Libya, US officials have cautioned against expecting any immediate lifting of sanctions.

Iran has also been very keen to divert pressure placed upon it, specifically by the US, and recently was hailed by the international community for signing on Thursday the additional protocol of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty which opens the way for snap UN inspections of suspect sites. Its acceptance of the protocol was part of a deal brokered by Britain, France and Germany in October to address US-led concerns about its nuclear program. Despite this move, Israel threatened to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment plant in the central Kashan area. Naturally, Iran was angered by Israel’s plans and threatened to retaliate if such an event occurred. It stated that instead of militarism and intimidation, Israel should now follow Iran’s lead and bring its own nuclear facilities under international oversight.

While the US was hoping the positive moves made by Iran would restore dialogue between Iran and Israel, Sharon’s cabinet was clear that it still regards Iran as its number one enemy and had no intention of softening its policies towards the country. Still, Tehran’s conciliatory moves are sure to please Washington, reducing the threat of further sanctions, and possibly an attack, while reopening dialogue with the US in the hope of being removed from Bush’s “axis of evil.”

Iran has moved to improve relations with Egypt, after more than two decades of severed ties with Cairo in protest against Egyptian policy, both with respect to Egypt's peaceful relations with Israel, and also its support of Iraq in the war with Iran. A decision was taken by the leaders of both states to restore full diplomatic ties. Recently, Tehran changed a street name from al-Islambouli Street to Intifada Street, in a show of good faith towards Cairo. The street was previously named in honor of Khaled al-Islambouli, who assassinated Egypt's President Anwar Sadat, and for years symbolized the deteriorated relations between the two states. Once relations are established with Egypt, Iran would have achieved normalization of relations with the Arab nations surrounding it. This would allow the country to escape the harsh sanctions the US has placed upon the country when it created a belt of support that included states such as India and Pakistan, along with the Gulf States and Turkey. Therefore, Iran is trying to open up to its neighboring countries in a bid to protect itself from a potential attack.

With the exception of Turkey, which already enjoys flourishing relations with both the US and Israel, the other nations in the Middle East appear to be walking a tightrope of pleasing the Americans, whether by disarming or hinting at ties with Israel, while maintaining a defiant public rhetoric against Israel necessary to avoid anger on the streets. It seems Israel’s prediction of the benefits of a war on Iraq are coming to light, as the country is now openly showing dominance in the region, with its unashamedly blunt threats of attacking both Syria and Iran. With their self preservation under threat, Arab nations are making clear gestures of compliance with US demands. It therefore seems that ‘in the bedroom’ negotiations are likely to sweep across the Middle East in 2004, as Arab nations line up to adhere to a neo-con vision of the region.

 
 
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