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This Thursday Palestinian-Israeli direct negotiations are due to commence in Washington, DC. Neither side seems to entertain much hope that this latest attempt to revive the long-dead "peace process" will bear fruit. Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Mahmoud Abbas continues to threaten that he will pull out of the talks if Israel does not extend a largely fictional freeze on West Bank settlement construction set to expire on September 26. This Palestinian "post-condition" is very unlikely to be met while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under intense pressure from his extremist coalition partners who have also been threatening loudly to pull out of the government if he complies; on their part they demand th?t settlement activity vigorously and openly resume after the expiry date, rather than just the "quiet" construction that is going on now. Neither threat should be taken very seriously. On the long road to the negotiations, Abbas issued and then abandoned many threats. There will be no surprise if he drops this one too. The striking reality, undoubtedly well known to Abbas, is that settlement and colonisation activities have been accelerated in Jerusalem and its surroundings, in particular, during the freeze period. Abbas had negotiated face to face with former Israeli prime ministers, in visibly cordial climates at their residences, and Isra?li building on Palestinian land was never a hindrance. Why should it be now? But if some sort of freeze extension would help save face, Netanyahu, under pressure from Washington to keep the talks going, will easily find a way out, as was the case many times before, to both keep the freeze and end it; keep it to appease the Palestinians and the Americans, and end it for the settlers and for his coalition partners. The settlement freeze is highly insignificant. It may help keep the process of negotiations going for the time needed, the 12 months earmarked for this round. But it will have no bearing on the substance. The real issue is what has been built illegally on occupied Palestinian land since 1967 and not what will be added now. The "freeze" is a very dangerous distraction from the hundreds of Jewish settlements spread all over the West Bank, with over half a million Jewish settlers living in them. The alarming ?eality is that the Israeli side knows that the PA has already agreed to allow Israel to annex the major settlement blocks - almost all - to Israel in any final agreement. Washington, and therefore the international community, has also formally endorsed that gross and illegal injustice since 2004. Over the years of peace process, the PA has been lowering the ceiling of its demands to a point where some "optimists" in the "international community" were lured into believing that the gap between the two sides was growing narrower. Not true; every Palestinian concession was matched by a huge Israeli escalation. The gap has in fact been growing wider. It is too wide now for any amount of negotiations to bridge, let alone fake, uneven, manipulative and ritual negotiations primarily intended for totally un?elated purposes. The fear is not that this round of negotiations will end in total failure, but that it "will make war more likely", as Israeli analyst Israel Harel wrote in the daily Haaretz last Thursday. Harel says that the Palestinians will "[A]bsolutely not" accept what Israel will offer them, which he describes as the "minimal Jewish Zionist consensus [that] includes recognition of Israel as the home land of the Jewish people; relinquishing the right of return; ending the conflict and waiving all further demands once?the agreement is signed; no division of Jerusalem by formal agreement, as opposed to practical arrangements; and the continued existence of the settlement blocks." Harel fears that even if the Palestinians this time "didn't want to miss another opportunity to miss an opportunity, those with the real power would torpedo the process: Tehran, Damascus, Hizbollah in Beirut, and soon also Baghdad, where Iran will pull the strings." Obviously Harel places the blame squarely on the Palestinian side, reminding that in previous times there was no compromise, Netanyahu's former predecessors, Rabin, Peres, Barak and Sharon, "indeed made many. But the Palestinians couldn't do it. They even escalated terror". Harel claims that this time, Abbas is neither able nor willing to do it. That may be very true. No Palestinian will be able to accept the ever-diminishing offers Israel presents them with every time they head to the negotiating table. The Palestinian Authority did, over the years, reduce its demands substantially, but this has always been matched by Israeli rising conditions. Stephen Walt of Harvard University, co-author of “The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy”, is quoted in an article by Sherri Muzher on Antiwar.com (August 25) as summarising the direct talks in three points. "1) There is no sign that the Palestinians are willing to accept less than a viable, territorially contiguous state in the West Bank (and eventually Gaza), including a capital in East Jerusalem. 2) There is no sign that Israel's government is willing to accept anything more than a symbolic Palestinian ?state' consisting of a set of disconnected Bantustans, with Israel in full control of the borders, airspace and water supplies. 3) There is no sign that the US government is willing to put meaningful pressure on Israel. In fact, the last US president to put serious pressure on Israel was George H.W. Bush who withheld loan guarantees to Israel for its settlement policies back in 1991." Walt adds: "A decade earlier, President Reagan said in September 1982: ‘Indeed, the immediate adoption of a settlements freeze by Israel, more than any other action, could create the confidence needed for wider participation in these talks.’ But leaders from Labour, Likud, and Kadima have never taken a reprieve from settlement building." This is the perfect diagnosis. It is the existence of the settlements and settlers that are the real problem (not to mention other equal important issues such as the rights of refugees). But any real negotiations should start there: with settlements and occupation. Within the prevailing parameters, there is no chance of progress, unfortunately. Israel's best offer is a West Bank as besieged and tightly controlled as Gaza. That is a real recipe for endless instability and eventually bloodshed and war. By so completely controlling the regional as well as the international political scene, Israel will not be able to escape the consequences of its arrogance and, indeed, its folly.
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