MIFTAH
Saturday, 6 July. 2024
 
Your Key to Palestine
The Palestinian Initiatives for The Promotoion of Global Dialogue and Democracy
 
 
 

Some people found it difficult to reconcile a few seemingly contradictory trends that have become evident during the course of the past 16 months of uprisings across the Arab region. Even many Arabs themselves often wonder whether Egypt will adopt genuine democracy or persist in military rule, or if the rule of autocrats across the region will simply be replaced by the rule of Islamists, militias or tribes in various Arab countries.

Part of this reflects the fact that the Arab countries are different from each other, and each transition from the old autocracies to something better and more democratic will have its moments of progress and the occasional regression or stall.

More important is the fact that people’s views on public issues are rarely black and white; they tend to be nuanced and also evolve over time. This runs against the grain of those in the region and abroad who prefer to deal with the Arab world as a homogenous region whose people share common, static traits and thoughts.

Just as political conditions are changing rapidly in transitioning countries like Egypt and Libya, so do people’s attitudes evolve in response to what they see happening around them. At the same time, they judge their well-being in light of the changing circumstances.

One new instrument that has been available to us in the Arab world for some years now is public opinion polling. A recently concluded poll across much of the region by the Doha-based Arab Centre for Research and Policy Studies sheds useful light on some of the main issues that define the current transitions and people’s attitudes to them.

It is an important piece of work because it captures public sentiments at a critical moment — the poll of over 16,000 people was conducted in 12 Arab countries in 2011 — and offers a more nuanced, and thus accurate, appreciation of sentiments on issues like religion and politics, Iran, Israel and Palestine, and the reasons for the demand for these democratic transitions that are trying to take root in some countries.

In general, the poll found strong majority support across the region for overthrowing dictators (70 and 80 per cent supported the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt respectively), and it also provided important insights into why so many Arabs hold this view.

Respondents explained the revolutions as reflecting popular resistance to dictatorships, monopolisation of power, curtailment of political and civil liberties, lack of justice and equality, and also economic stresses.

Significantly, respondents were not just echoing slogans in demanding or supporting democracy in their countries, but rather overwhelmingly (81 per cent) were able to suggest specific elements of democratic rule that they desired. They mostly defined democracy in political terms, but also included elements such as social justice, development, security and stability, and economic rights.

A strong majority of two-thirds rejected the idea that democracy should be curtailed or rejected for the sake of economic stability and security.

Democratic credentials are not impeccable, however, as just over one-third of respondents said they would not accept the coming to power through democratic means of a party whose views they objected to (yet 53 per cent support this).

The interplay of religion and politics in the eye of the Arab public clearly supports religiosity in the private realm but sees public activity as being guided mainly by non-religious factors. Forty-seven per cent of Arabs surveyed thought religion is a private practice that should be separated from public life and decision-making, while 38 per cent disagreed and two-thirds thought religious figures should not interfere in politics.

Public confidence in government and state institutions varies widely, from a high 77 per cent who express confidence in their armed forces to around half who trust the police and intelligence agencies or the government, and just 36 per cent who express confidence in their parliaments.

Ordinary citizens’ sense of alienation from their governments is also captured in the finding; just 31 per cent of respondents felt their national economic policies took citizens’ views into consideration, and just 34 per cent felt this was the case with foreign policies.

The poll found that a strong majority (71 per cent) felt Arabs shared traits that make them a single nation, while half also said that individual countries had different distinguishing traits.

Most Arabs polled (73 per cent) said Israel and the United States were the main security threats to the Arab world, and in third place was Iran at just five per cent.

Eighty-four per cent thought the Palestine issue unites all Arabs, not only Palestinians. Only 21 per cent supported the peace agreements that Egypt and Jordan had signed with Israel, and 84 per cent rejected Arab official recognition of Israel today.

These snapshots of Arab sentiments across the region offer useful insights into the issues that drive public opinion and also should help us better understand the issues we should keep our eyes on as we continue to follow the course of events.

 
 
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