If an Israeli Rip Van Winkle had gone to sleep in 1992 and woken up in 2012 to find a news report that Palestinian leader Khalid Mishal had just concluded a meeting at the Egyptian presidential palace with President Muhammad Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, he might wonder if a previously unknown but particularly jarring piece of apocalyptic literature had somehow found its way into the daily paper. He might go so far as to frantically turn to the weather page to see if a temperature was still listed for Tel Aviv or if the city had ceased to exist. Horror might turn quickly to puzzlement as he read more and found that the concern of his fellow citizens seemed far more focused on other matters. What was remarkable about this week's Mishal-Morsi meeting was therefore how unremarkable it was. With so much going on in the region, it is clear that Palestine will have to wait for now. The question is for how long. The attitude of Egypt’s first truly elected president is easy to explain. Yes, support for the Palestinian cause is hard wired into the Brotherhood’s world view. Yes, Hamas proudly models itself after Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and the “mother movement” looks upon its daughter as a wholly legitimate offspring. And yes, even by Brotherhood standards Morsi impressed most of us who met him before he assumed the presidency as unlike most other Brotherhood leaders who generally come across as soft spoken and polite. Morsi was prickly and particularly unanxious to please; during his presidential campaign, most Egyptians were less impressed by the nature of his rhetoric than by his volume. But the Brotherhood’s priorities are clear, and Morsi is a loyal Brotherhood member. The priority now is governing—and that means wrestling with the military and the judiciary, managing the economy, steering the transition process. It does not mean picking fights with Israel or the United States. The movement has managed carefully to find out what Western interlocutors needed to hear and then say the words it was asked—that it would honor Egypt’s international obligations and make no unilateral changes in the peace treaty with Israel. So when Mishal showed up on Morsi’s doorstep, he was greeted with pleasantries but not with any policy sharply different from that which came before. Egypt still favors Hamas-Fatah reconciliation; its relationship with Israel is a bilateral matter; security in Sinai is a major Egyptian concern. There are differences in emphasis to be sure: the Brotherhood is probably more sincere about its push for reconciliation and more unhappy about the continued sanctions on Gaza. But it is no hurry in either area nor is it clear it would be able to force any changes if it were. And Mishal seemed to follow Morsi’s lead by bowing to the inevitable and accepting that the Palestinian cause will have to wait. There are strong signs of frustration in the Hamas camp—its powerful friend in Cairo seems distracted by other concerns for now. But what is the alternative? Hamas was formed in the 1980s dedicated to ensuring that Palestinians would be able to act on their own and seize control of their own destinies. But it now has to wait with surprising patience for the rising Islamist tide in Egypt and elsewhere to lift their boat. From an Israeli perspective, the result is a welcome respite. The question is how to use the calm strangely provided by the Islamist rise in North Africa. One alternative would be to seize the opportunity to allow a Palestinian reconciliation process to move forward and thus for a negotiating partner to re-emerge. Perhaps at the same time, the Brotherhood could be called on its desire to renegotiate the peace treaty. A stronger Egyptian security presence in Sinai, for instance, might serve Israel’s interest and allow the Brotherhood to claim a propaganda victory—and in the process entrap the movement into legitimating a treaty relationship it rejected a generation ago. A second Israeli alternative is to use the calm to allow the annexation of the West Bank to entrench itself more deeply, seek assurances only from the United States about what Egyptian policy will be in the long term, and hope that the decay of the Palestinian national movement is permanent. For now the first alternative seems bizarrely risky; the second has a very strong element of inertia behind it. There is little doubt, therefore, what choice Israel will make. But should our Israeli Rip Van Winkle fall back asleep for another twenty years, it is likely that when he would awake only to be peppered with questions about why the first path was not even considered
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By: Amira Hass
Date: 27/05/2013
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Slain Bedouin girls' mother, a victim of Israeli-Palestinian bureaucracy
Abir Dandis, the mother of the two girls who were murdered in the Negev town of Al-Fura’a last week, couldn't find a police officer to listen to her warnings, neither in Arad nor in Ma’ale Adumim. Both police stations operate in areas where Israel wants to gather the Bedouin into permanent communities, against their will, in order to clear more land for Jewish communities. The dismissive treatment Dandis received shows how the Bedouin are considered simply to be lawbreakers by their very nature. But as a resident of the West Bank asking for help for her daughters, whose father was Israeli, Dandis faced the legal-bureaucratic maze created by the Oslo Accords. The Palestinian police is not allowed to arrest Israeli civilians. It must hand suspects over to the Israel Police. The Palestinian police complain that in cases of Israelis suspected of committing crimes against Palestinian residents, the Israel Police tend not to investigate or prosecute them. In addition, the town of Al-Azaria, where Dandis lives, is in Area B, under Palestinian civilian authority and Israeli security authority. According to the testimony of Palestinian residents, neither the IDF nor the Israel Police has any interest in internal Palestinian crime even though they have both the authority and the obligation to act in Area B. The Palestinian police are limited in what it can do in Area B. Bringing in reinforcements or carrying weapons in emergency situations requires coordination with, and obtaining permission from, the IDF. If Dandis fears that the man who murdered her daughters is going to attack her as well, she has plenty of reason to fear that she will not receive appropriate, immediate police protection from either the Israelis or the Palestinians. Dandis told Jack Khoury of Haaretz that the Ma’ale Adumim police referred her to the Palestinian Civil Affairs Coordination and Liaison Committee. Theoretically, this committee (which is subordinate to the Civil Affairs Ministry) is the logical place to go for such matters. Its parallel agency in Israel is the Civilian Liaison Committee (which is part of the Coordination and Liaison Administration - a part of the Civil Administration under the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories). In their meetings, they are supposed to discuss matters such as settlers’ complaints about the high volume of the loudspeakers at mosques or Palestinians’ complaints about attacks by settlers. But the Palestinians see the Liaison Committee as a place to submit requests for permission to travel to Israel, and get the impression that its clerks do not have much power when faced with their Israeli counterparts. In any case, the coordination process is cumbersome and long. The Palestinian police has a family welfare unit, and activists in Palestinian women’s organizations say that in recent years, its performance has improved. But, as stated, it has no authority over Israeli civilians and residents. Several non-governmental women’s groups also operate in the West Bank and in East Jerusalem, and women in similar situations approach them for help. The manager of one such organization told Haaretz that Dandis also fell victim to this confusing duplication of procedures and laws. Had Dandis approached her, she said, she would have referred her to Adalah, the Legal Center for Arab Minority Rights in Israel, which has expertise in navigating Israel’s laws and authorities.
By: Phoebe Greenwood
Date: 27/05/2013
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John Kerry unveils plan to boost Palestinian economy
John Kerry revealed his long-awaited plan for peace in the Middle East on Sunday, hinging on a $4bn (£2.6bn) investment in the Palestinian private sector. The US secretary of state, speaking at the World Economic Forum on the Jordanian shores of the Dead Sea, told an audience including Israeli president Shimon Peres and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas that an independent Palestinian economy is essential to achieving a sustainable peace. Speaking under the conference banner "Breaking the Impasse", Kerry announced a plan that he promised would be "bigger, bolder and more ambitious" than anything since the Oslo accords, more than 20 years ago. Tony Blair is to lead a group of private sector leaders in devising a plan to release the Palestinian economy from its dependence on international donors. The initial findings of Blair's taskforce, Kerry boasted, were "stunning", predicting a 50% increase in Palestinian GDP over three years, a cut of two-thirds in unemployment rates and almost double the Palestinian median wage. Currently, 40% of the Palestinian economy is supplied by donor aid. Kerry assured Abbas that the economic plan was not a substitute for a political solution, which remains the US's "top priority". Peres, who had taken the stage just minutes before, also issued a personal plea to his Palestinian counterpart to return to the negotiations. "Let me say to my dear friend President Abbas," Peres said, "Should we really dance around the table? Lets sit together. You'll be surprised how much can be achieved in open, direct and organised meetings."
By: Jillian Kestler-D'Amours
Date: 27/05/2013
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Isolation Devastates East Jerusalem Economy
Thick locks hug the front gates of shuttered shops, now covered in graffiti and dust from lack of use. Only a handful of customers pass along the dimly lit road, sometimes stopping to check the ripeness of fruits and vegetables, or ordering meat in near-empty butcher shops. “All the shops are closed. I’m the only one open. This used to be the best place,” said 64-year-old Mustafa Sunocret, selling vegetables out of a small storefront in the marketplace near his family’s home in the Muslim quarter of Jerusalem’s Old City. Amidst the brightly coloured scarves, clothes and carpets, ceramic pottery and religious souvenirs filling the shops of Jerusalem’s historic Old City, Palestinian merchants are struggling to keep their businesses alive. Faced with worsening health problems, Sunocret told IPS that he cannot work outside of the Old City, even as the cost of maintaining his shop, with high electricity, water and municipal tax bills to pay, weighs on him. “I only have this shop,” he said. “There is no other work. I’m tired.” Abed Ajloni, the owner of an antiques shop in the Old City, owes the Jerusalem municipality 250,000 Israeli shekels (68,300 U.S. dollars) in taxes. He told IPS that almost every day, the city’s tax collectors come into the Old City, accompanied by Israeli police and soldiers, to pressure people there to pay. “It feels like they’re coming again to occupy the city, with the soldiers and police,” Ajloni, who has owned the same shop for 35 years, told IPS. “But where can I go? What can I do? All my life I was in this place.” He added, “Does Jerusalem belong to us, or to someone else? Who’s responsible for Jerusalem? Who?” Illegal annexation Israel occupied East Jerusalem, including the Old City, in 1967. In July 1980, it passed a law stating that “Jerusalem, complete and united, is the capital of Israel”. But Israel’s annexation of East Jerusalem and subsequent application of Israeli laws over the entire city remain unrecognised by the international community. Under international law, East Jerusalem is considered occupied territory – along with the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Syrian Golan Heights – and Palestinian residents of the city are protected under the Fourth Geneva Convention. Jerusalem has historically been the economic, political and cultural centre of life for the entire Palestinian population. But after decades languishing under destructive Israeli policies meant to isolate the city from the rest of the Occupied Territories and a lack of municipal services and investment, East Jerusalem has slipped into a state of poverty and neglect. “After some 45 years of occupation, Arab Jerusalemites suffer from political and cultural schizophrenia, simultaneously connected with and isolated from their two hinterlands: Ramallah and the West Bank to their east, West Jerusalem and Israel to the west,” the International Crisis Group recently wrote. Israeli restrictions on planning and building, home demolitions, lack of investment in education and jobs, construction of an eight-foot-high separation barrier between and around Palestinian neighbourhoods and the creation of a permit system to enter Jerusalem have all contributed to the city’s isolation. Formal Palestinian political groups have also been banned from the city, and between 2001-2009, Israel closed an estimated 26 organisations, including the former Palestinian Liberation Organisation headquarters in Jerusalem, the Orient House and the Jerusalem Chamber of Commerce. Extreme poverty Israel’s policies have also led to higher prices for basic goods and services and forced many Palestinian business owners to close shop and move to Ramallah or other Palestinian neighbourhoods on the other side of the wall. Many Palestinian Jerusalemites also prefer to do their shopping in the West Bank, or in West Jerusalem, where prices are lower. While Palestinians constitute 39 percent of the city’s population today, almost 80 percent of East Jerusalem residents, including 85 percent of children, live below the poverty line. “How could you develop [an] economy if you don’t control your resources? How could you develop [an] economy if you don’t have any control of your borders?” said Zakaria Odeh, director of the Civic Coalition for Palestinian Rights in Jerusalem, of “this kind of fragmentation, checkpoints, closure”. “Without freedom of movement of goods and human beings, how could you develop an economy?” he asked. “You can’t talk about independent economy in Jerusalem or the West Bank or in all of Palestine without a political solution. We don’t have a Palestinian economy; we have economic activities. That’s all we have,” Odeh told IPS. Israel’s separation barrier alone, according to a new report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTD), has caused a direct loss of over one billion dollars to Palestinians in Jerusalem, and continues to incur 200 million dollars per year in lost opportunities. Israel’s severing and control over the Jerusalem-Jericho road – the historical trade route that connected Jerusalem to the rest of the West Bank and Middle East – has also contributed to the city’s economic downturn. Separation of Jerusalem from West Bank Before the First Intifada (Arabic for “uprising”) began in the late 1980s, East Jerusalem contributed approximately 14 to 15 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the Occupied Palestinian territories (OPT). By 2000, that number had dropped to less than eight percent; in 2010, the East Jerusalem economy, compared to the rest of the OPT, was estimated at only seven percent. “Economic separation resulted in the contraction in the relative size of the East Jerusalem economy, its detachment from the remaining OPT and the gradual redirection of East Jerusalem employment towards the Israeli labour market,” the U.N. report found. Decades ago, Israel adopted a policy to maintain a so-called “demographic balance” in Jerusalem and attempt to limit Palestinian residents of the city to 26.5 percent or less of the total population. To maintain this composition, Israel built numerous Jewish-Israeli settlements inside and in a ring around Jerusalem and changed the municipal boundaries to encompass Jewish neighbourhoods while excluding Palestinian ones. It is now estimated that 90,000 Palestinians holding Jerusalem residency rights live on the other side of the separation barrier and must cross through Israeli checkpoints in order to reach Jerusalem for school, medical treatment, work, and other services. “Israel is using all kinds of tools to push the Palestinians to leave; sometimes they are visible, and sometimes invisible tools,” explained Ziad al-Hammouri, director of the Jerusalem Centre for Social and Economic Rights (JCSER). Al-Hammouri told IPS that at least 25 percent of the 1,000 Palestinian shops in the Old City were closed in recent years as a result of high municipal taxes and a lack of customers. “Taxation is an invisible tool…as dangerous as revoking ID cards and demolishing houses,” he said. “Israel will use this as pressure and as a tool in the future to confiscate these shops and properties.”
By the Same Author
Date: 19/01/2012
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Is Hamas Mellowing?
Over the past few weeks, as Palestinian reconciliation efforts have inched forward, some of Hamas’s leaders have provoked interest by apparently staking out new positions. They have not only agreed to enter the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), thus participating in a body that signed the Oslo Accords with Israel, a pact the group has long opposed, but also committed themselves to “popular resistance,” an alternative to the armed activity through which the group gained international notoriety. But for every tentative step by one leader, there is a restatement of old positions—sometimes in very pugnacious form—by another. What is happening to the movement? Is Hamas mellowing? No. Or at least not yet. The two halves of the Palestinian Authority (PA)—one in the West Bank headed by Fatah and the other in Gaza headed by Hamas—are still badly divided, but the political movements controlling each half seem to be taking reconciliation efforts seriously. To be sure, they have gone through the motions of various efforts for years, but over the past few months there are signs that key leaders in both movements are attempting to place reconciliation much higher on the list of priorities. The concrete successes of Palestinian reconciliation to date are meager indeed, but the tone of Palestinian public discussions has shifted markedly—though it seems to alternate from day to day between soothing talk of unity and angry charges of duplicity. Whatever the outcome of this round of unity efforts, the idea of reconciliation will not likely expire anytime soon since the only alternatives (the continuation of two-state diplomacy for Fatah and “resistance” and entrenchment in Gaza for Hamas) may have run their course for the present. Thus, though Hamas’s recent steps are significant, they do not represent any clear commitment to a different path; each one has left an escape hatch gaping open. But Hamas’s leaders have begun to involve their movement in a series of processes over which they do not have complete control, and the incorporation of Hamas into regional diplomacy is a logical and desirable (though still risky) outcome. What measures has Hamas now taken and how much do they commit the movement to irreversible change? Joining the PLO First, Hamas has agreed with Fatah to enter the Palestine Liberation Organization, the umbrella body that represents—in the eyes of many Palestinians as well as numerous international proclamations—the “sole, legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.” It is the PLO that signed the Oslo Accords and that acts diplomatically on behalf of Palestinians. The organization is currently chaired by Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas. By entering the PLO, is Hamas signaling its acceptance of the Oslo Accords and of Abbas’s leadership? Not really. Both Hamas and its rivals have always agreed that in principle Hamas should be part of the PLO, though they generally have never come to terms with the practicalities of such a step. Hamas has had no desire to submit itself to PLO decisions, and domin ant factions in the PLO have remained concerned about being edged aside by Hamas. Thus, periodic talks about how to incorporate Hamas have been strong on vague agreements but always bog down on the details. In 2005, as part of a package agreement that brought Hamas into parliamentary elections, Palestinian political factions (including Fatah and Hamas) agreed in Cairo to sketch out steps to bring Hamas into the PLO, but that agreement was never implemented. Since the Hamas-Fatah civil war of 2007, various reconciliation proposals have referred to the Cairo agreement, but none has put much meat on the bones of an unimplemented pledge. The 2011 revival of reconciliation efforts pushes things a bit farther along—but only a bit. Palestinian factions have agreed to construct an ad hoc body containing all factions to coordinate Palestinian affairs and make decisions jointly while they work together to build a reformed, inclusive PLO. They claim that the aim is to hold elections for the Palestinian National Council (PNC), an assembly designed to represent Palestinians throughout the world and the oversight body for the PLO. But how that inclusive PLO will be built is unclear, and PNC elections, while politically unassailable, are also a practical impossibility. For instance, Palestinian officials are just coming to grips with the reality that Palestinians who are citizens of Israel or Jordan might not be allowed—or dare—to vote without jeopardizing their local citizenship. In the meantime—which could be a very long period indeed—the factions have agreed to only a formula for collective decisionmaking in which all prominent actors get a veto. And activating such structures does not demand acceptance of the Olso Accords or even of Abbas’s authority—as Hamas made clear when it criticized Abbas’s dutiful decision to show up for a Quartet-sponsored meeting with Israeli negotiators in Jordan in early January. Thus, agreeing to join the PLO leaves enormous loopholes and does not commit Hamas to much of anything. Indeed, Hamas leaders have insisted that they have not accepted Oslo and will not accept the legitimacy of Israel. Still, Hamas has allowed itself to be pointed in a clear direction of consensual decisionmaking. The movement’s insistence that it will not recognize Israel has its own loopholes, since political parties and movements are not the relevant actors for international agreements or for recognizing states—a point often made in internal Palestinian discussions by those seeking to coax Hamas into the fold. Hamas need not abandon its principles, they say; it only has to accept the authority of Palestinian institutions that will sign the relevant agreements and take the necessary steps. No more is asked of Hamas in this regard than was asked of Fatah when Oslo was signed—the party did not immediately revise its documents to do reflect its support of the agreements with Israel when PLO leaders from the movement signed the accords. Neither was Likud for that matter required to change its platform from opposition to support for the agreements or to clarify the evasive statements of its leaders before running in post-Oslo elections. In short, those Hamas leaders who have led the movement into reconciliation efforts have embarked on a process that would allow Hamas to be incorporated as a diplomatic actor and subjected to authoritative Palestinian structures. In return, the movement would gain a voice in that diplomacy and a role in those structures. And the leaders have stressed their commitment to the process so strongly and insistently—with Khalid Mishal, the head of Hamas’s political bureau, recently referring to it as a “third birth” for the PLO (following its original founding by the Arab League in 1964 and the takeover of the organization by homegrown Palestinian factions in 1969)—that it will be hard to bury their new dedication to the organization. Embracing Popular Resistance Hamas’s second move is to accept “popular resistance” and a unilateral cease-fire with Israel. This step is significant, but more for the potential it offers for Hamas’s evolution in the future than for any sign that the movement has taken any irreversible steps. Talk of popular resistance is hardly evidence that Hamas leaders have been reading Gandhi. First, Hamas leaders make clear that they still regard armed action as legitimate. And they have even suggested that the cease-fire does not mean an end to efforts to capture Israeli soldiers in order to force an exchange for Palestinian prisoners excluded from the last deal for Gilad Shalit. Then, Israel released over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Shalit, an Israeli soldier held by Hamas for over five years. Second, this step away from violence is not breaking much new ideological ground. Hamas leaders have never rejected the idea of some sort of suspension of armed action in principle; indeed, they have held their fire for a prolonged period. Finally, popular resistance is not quite the same as nonviolence, though there is considerable overlap. When Palestinians speak of popular resistance they often do so to distinguish it from what they call the “militarization” of the second intifada. And sometimes they do so nostalgically to recall the first intifada, characterized by strikes, demonstrations, founding of grassroots organizations—and restricted largely to fairly low-level violence, like stone throwing. Popular resistance means involving the entire society in the effort rather than allowing a small number of hardened fighters to dominate the political field. And that is a step that Hamas has now endorsed. It has broad resonance within a Palestinian society still traumatized and exhausted from the second intifada and with a broader Arab public still transfixed by the accomplishments of Tunisian and Egyptian crowds in facing down tyrants. The approach also plays to what Hamas considers its strength: its deep engagement with Palestinian society. It is unclear what form popular resistance will take or even if there will be any surge of mass political activism from Palestinians at all. Attempts over the past year to jump-start a new wave have seen occasional, but very much unsustained, successes. What is far clearer is that the slogan has become one to which almost all Palestinian political actors wish to lay claim. Hamas’s embrace of popular resistance thus commits the movement to no permanent change in its organization or ideology but does allow it to tap into broader currents in Palestinian and Arab public opinion. And as with joining the PLO, this embrace has led to a marked change in tone and rhetoric but has not yet been connected with any concrete steps—either for the movement or for the people who are now supposed to take up their direct role in the national struggle. Squabbling but not Splitting Hamas’s moves in each of these areas have confused movement observers because leaders seem to be sending messages that are in tension with each other. Hamas wishes to join the PLO; it terms reconciliation with Fatah a “strategic choice” rather than a short-term maneuver; leaders stress that the various Palestinian factions need to develop a common political program; they claim that resistance needs to emphasize popular involvement and de-emphasize armed action—but Hamas will not change its vision or renounce armed struggle. Why such confusing signals? For a movement that has as many factions as Hamas, such conflicting indications should not be surprising. The driving force behind some of the new moves seems to be the external leadership in general, with Khalid Mishal specifically playing a leading role. This should be expected. Hamas’s organization is geographically scattered, with its highest decisionmaking body based in Gaza and Damascus, Syria—though recent events there are forcing it to search for alternative locations—and other leaders in the West Bank, Israeli prisons, and locations throughout the Arab world. From the perspective of this external leadership, regional challenges, such as the instability of the Syrian regime, and opportunities, including the rise of Islamists in Egypt and indeed across North Africa, suggest that this may be the time to question the stasis that has set in over the past few years. Others, such as the military wing, are more likely to be suspicious of attempts to turn away from armed action and wary of the possibility of becoming ensnared in diplomatic processes. And the Gaza government now views itself as bearing responsibility (quite happily, it should be added) for the administration of over one million Palestinians and may fear that the weight of its concerns are given insufficient attention. Hamas is hardly new to experiencing internal tensions and disagreements; observers have noted past instances in which various leaders send messages with strikingly different tones and content. Yet on no occasion has this led to anything like a schism in the movement as leaders almost always stay within the bounds of Hamas’s declared positions, pushing them in the direction that they wish without breaking movement discipline. And Muslim Brotherhood movements throughout the region (Hamas has its origins in Palestinian elements of the Brotherhood) often show a similar pattern of setting down general policy guidelines that feint in multiple directions and then allowing various tendencies within the organization to pursue slightly different versions of a common agenda. Those who are looking for Hamas to take formal and unalterable steps to accept Israel or abandon violence—a definitive ideological signal—will probably find that only happens sometime (likely several years) after a genuine shift in the group’s behavior has occurred. For a movement like Hamas, one that prides itself on holding fast to fixed general principles while also being very practical and flexible in their application, formal ideological renunciations are often the last stage of a movement’s evolution. In this way, the group is similar to the German Social Democratic Party (which removed Marxism from its program in 1959, over a decade after the start of the Cold War) or Israel’s Revisionist movement (whose renunciation of claims to Jordan had long been forgotten by the time they were formally abandoned). So if Hamas were to take steps now, they would likely be ambiguous, reversible, and ideologically deniable. Is it taking any such steps at all? An Uncertain Journey Hamas is taking clear steps hinting at changes in its positions and its place in Palestinian politics, but it is far too early to call them irreversible measures. The organization is still attempting to be government, resistance movement, reform agent, and occasionally even loyal opposition all at the same time, without resolving the contradictory pulls of these missions. But its recent moves may set off processes that, over the long term, lead to entangling the movement—willingly, but unmistakably—in decisions and structures that will reconfigure the organization. The reconciliation process, for instance, may make possible the revival of a more unified, if far less coherent, PA. Over the short term, the effect of such a move will not be large: Hamas will likely continue to dominate Gaza and Fatah will dominate the West Bank. But a new technocratic government may be appointed that both sides will have to acknowledge. And it is possible, though not inevitable, that the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC)—the parliament elected in 2006 that has not met in almost five years—will reconvene. Such a move would have some impact on Hamas. Its deputies have a clear majority in the body, but large parts of the parliamentary leadership pull in directions different from the rest of the movement. The West Bank is more prominently represented, for instance, and the PLC speaker, Aziz Dweik, has shown a bit of an independent streak, suggesting that sometimes he believes his responsibilities as speaker outweigh his partisan affiliation. With the revival of a unified legislative body, no longer would Hamas be able to rule completely by decree in Gaza. A new election commission has already been appointed. Of course, those elections still confront many obstacles—the two halves of the PA cite different electoral laws; the reconciliation agreement calls for PLC elections to coincide with impracticable PNC elections; Israel can inhibit voting in general and completely prevent it in Jerusalem. But Fatah and Hamas may find that their constant taunting and accusations that the other is afraid of elections may actually result in balloting someday if they are not more careful. Finally, in a mood that sparked curiosity and puzzlement in some Arab circles but virtually no global attention, Hamas has decided to construct a full Muslim Brotherhood organization. Hamas has always presented itself as springing from Brotherhood origins. But from the perspective of the weak—indeed, almost irrelevant—international Brotherhood organization, there was a single organization that spanned both banks of the Jordan. Shortly after Hamas’s 2006 electoral victory, Hamas’s external leadership initiated the step of formally disentangling the Jordanian and Palestinian movements, a complicated process that has finally been completed. Now Hamas wants to move one step further by formally establishing a Palestinian Brotherhood. The implications of such a step are not yet completely clear. To date, only the decision itself has been announced, but there are three significant long-term repercussions. First, it could lead to a shift of focus among Palestinian Islamists. Hamas’s identity—indeed its very name—has stressed “resistance.” But Brotherhood organizations portray themselves as comprehensive, with religious, personal, educational, social, charitable, and political dimensions. Second, chains of command within the organization could shift—Khalid Mishal, for instance, might move from being the head of the political bureau of the organization to become the Palestinian Brotherhood’s “general supervisor,” a potentially more authoritative post. And third, the Palestinian Brotherhood might seek to not simply model the structure but also mimic the behavior of successful Islamist movements in North Africa, which have achieved great electoral success by emphasizing gradual political reform and soothing rhetoric. Hamas’s Motivations—and Others’ Responses While Hamas’s destination is still very much uncertain, the motivation of its leaders for embarking on this path is much clearer. They seek to position the movement regionally to be able to take full advantage of the changes in Egypt and the rise of Islamists more generally—as well as to cope with the disintegration of the Syrian regime that has hosted them for so long. Reconciliation also offers the possibility of reemerging in the West Bank where much of the movement has been forced—sometimes quite harshly—into hibernation since 2007. The movement’s government in Gaza—which exercises authority quite effectively on the ground but remains internationally isolated—might be able to continue the process of prying open the diplomatic and economic window that has fallen ajar over the past year. And Hamas would also gain a voice in Palestinian decisionmaking and what might amount to a veto over international diplomacy coupled with deniability. In other words, President Mahmoud Abbas would be able to pursue diplomacy either subject to Hamas’s implicit consent or risk being held responsible for breaking the consensus national program. If Hamas wished (and it is certain that it would), it could allow Abbas to pursue diplomacy while not being directly associated with it. Is this something to encourage internationally? There are substantial costs to be sure. First, it would be difficult to carry on serious, conflict-ending diplomacy in a context in which Hamas was given a powerful voice. The basis for a two-state solution would not be totally removed. Hamas for its part has left the door slightly open by indicating its willingness to accept a state based on the 1967 lines. It has rejected the idea that it will recognize Israel, but, as suggested above, the relevant question is whether it would accept as binding a Palestinian decision to recognize Israel, not whether it would change its own ideology. And Israel similarly has sometimes shown a willingness to negotiate indirectly with Hamas. But if two-state diplomacy would be theoretically possible, it would not be likely. Making decisions by consensus, as the Palestinians propose to do, is often a formula for paralysis. For its part, the current Israeli government has shown every interest in maintaining correct relations with the United States but no interest in a two-state solution as envisaged internationally over the past decade. And even if Palestinians and Israelis were able and willing, the United States, hampered as it is by legislation, election-year politics, and stunning tone deafness to Palestinian domestic politics, hardly seems to be in any position to sponsor viable negotiations. A second cost would be entrenching Hamas. Since the Islamist electoral victory of 2006, the United States has led an international effort to sideline, oust, isolate, and defeat the movement. Accepting Palestinian reconciliation would amount to an admission of failure. Acknowledging that the “peace process” has reached a dead end in its current form and that Hamas is an unavoidable political player, however, should be viewed less as high costs to pay and more as a long-overdue recognition of hard political realities. The U.S. government does not have any enthusiasm or tools for addressing the Palestinian-Israeli conflict at present. The potential payoff for Washington, then, is that this shift will automatically involve some conflict management; a Palestinian political system dominated by two movements that wish for now to avoid conflict with Israel may give the United States the respite it needs. And the restoration of a structure for Palestinian decisionmaking, while unlikely to lead to any breakthrough in the short term, is a necessary condition for any viable diplomacy in the future. In speaking to some officials who were involved with Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy in 2005 and 2006, I have been struck by how many—especially on the European side, but even among some U.S. officials—see the reaction to Hamas’s victory as a tactical mistake. Rather than react by squeezing the movement at a moment when, for the first time, it had both a share of political responsibility and something to lose, the international reaction was to crush it. Taking a cautious rather than a hostile stance when it comes to Palestinian reconciliation and Hamas’s baby steps toward evolutionary change would not erase the mistakes of the past decade. But it may lay the basis for eventually recovering from them.
Date: 20/06/2011
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No Savior
If Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad's political career came to an end today, he could still proudly claim to be Palestine's most accomplished prime minister ever. The problem is that all of his predecessors -- Ahmad Hilmi, Mahmud Abbas, Ahmad Qurei, and Ismail Haniyya -- were impotent, transitory, or frustrated occupants of the post, and collectively set a very low bar. But judged by the enormous expectations and hoopla his Western cheerleaders burdened him with, Fayyad will leave only disappointment behind him. The prime minister's departure from the Palestinian political scene appears likely but not inevitable. With Fatah and Hamas striving to form a unity government, Fayyad may very well be sacrificed on the altar of Palestinian unity. Neither the sunny nor the cynical view of Fayyad is fair. His optimistic smile obscured an impossible situation: Fayyad's main achievement has not been to build the structures of a Palestinian state, but to stave off the collapse of those structures that did exist. An equally important achievement was his ability to persuade Western observers that he was doing much more. In the process, however, he raised expectations far beyond his ability to deliver. What Fayyad Did Not Do: In enumerating Fayyad's accomplishments, it is necessary -- if churlish -- to begin by explaining what Fayyad did not accomplish. First, he did not build any institutions. The state-like political structures now in the West Bank and Gaza were either built during the heyday of the Oslo Process in the 1990s or in the more distant days of Jordanian and British rule. Second, he did not bring Palestinians to the brink of statehood. The Palestinian Authority, for all its problems, was actually far more ready for statehood on the eve of the Second Intifada in 1999 than it is on the possible eve of the third in 2011. A dozen years ago, Palestine had full security control of its cities, a set of institutions that united the West Bank and Gaza, a flourishing civil society, and a set of legitimate structures for writing authoritative laws and implementing them. Those accomplishments were in retreat long before Fayyad took office, and he was hardly able to restore them. Third, Fayyad did not strengthen the rule of law. He could not have done so, since the only legitimate law-making body the Palestinians have, the Legislative Council, has not met since he came to power. Fourth, Fayyad did not prove to Palestinians that they should rely on themselves. Just the opposite. He showed Palestinians that if they relied on him, foreigners would show them the money. At the heady days at the beginning of Oslo, the United States pledged half a billion dollars for the entire five-year process during which the parties were supposed to negotiate a permanent agreement. They have given Fayyad more than that almost every year that he has been in office. The Europeans have opened the purse strings for him too. It is utterly baffling that a figure so completely dependent on Western diplomatic and financial support would be seen by outsiders as an icon of Palestinian self-help. Finally, he did not bring economic development to the West Bank. What he made possible was a real but unsustainable recovery based on aid and relaxation of travel restrictions. Year-to-year economic indicators in both the West Bank and Gaza are dependent on foreign assistance, and even more on the political and security situation. Fayyad can thus take some credit for the upturn, but Hamas can make a similar claim for the mild improvements in Gaza since Israel relaxed some of the closure last year. Neither has laid the groundwork for real development or attraction of foreign investment. Nor could they in the stultifying and uncertain political environment. None of these failings was personal. Fayyad could not have accomplished any of these goals even had he wanted to. He led half of a dysfunctional Palestinian Authority, governed scattered bits of territory in the West Bank, and was forced to rattle the cup constantly in order to pay the bills. What Fayyad Did Do: However, if Fayyad could not walk on water, he did an almost miraculous job of not drowning. This is not to damn Fayyad with faint praise; the prime minister assumed control of a Palestinian Authority that was unable to pay all of its salaries, deeply mistrusted by Israel, and treated as irrelevant by many Palestinians.
Date: 07/02/2006
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Getting Real With Hamas
In Washington and Brussels, Hamas’s landslide victory in the Palestinian parliamentary elections poses an immediate dilemma: what to do with all the funding for the Palestinian Authority? Although they are still coordinating their positions, the United States and European Union are leaning toward linking financial support to fundamental changes by the triumphant Islamist movement. In his January 31 State of the Union address, President Bush said “[T]he leaders of Hamas must recognize Israel, disarm, reject terrorism, and work for lasting peace.” The conditions are reasonable enough, but they must be accompanied by careful thinking about how to measure compliance and progress. Setting conditions on Hamas may force it to confront difficult choices, but pressure applied clumsily will easily backfire. Just as bad, the United States and Europe could get handcuffed to a policy they will find it difficult to extricate themselves from later. Cutting off funding entirely is a bad option that may provoke economic collapse and humanitarian disaster in the West Bank and Gaza. The demise of the Palestinian Authority would result in a leaderless society in a continuous state of low-level warfare with Israel. Islamists in the region who have argued in favor of democratic change will find themselves unable to answer the charge that the international community will never accept Islamist parties in power. It’s possible, alternatively, that Hamas would stave of fiscal collapse by turning to Iran and Saudi Arabia for funding—an alignment hardly likely to serve either U.S. or Israeli interests. Accommodating a Hamas-led government and keeping international aid flowing may be more effective—but only if it supports the long-term goal of peace. Is that possible? Or is the group’s agenda simply too extreme? Hamas, after all, rejects a two-state solution and maintains a right to resistance—and the group’s definition of resistance includes murderous attacks on civilian targets. Therefore, conditioning aid is a sound approach. Still, presenting demands for immediate change in stark and aggressive terms will likely elicit only resistance. Hamas is a movement that prides itself on its principles and is unlikely to abandon them easily. Even if some of its leaders wanted to shift positions, the movement’s ponderous decision-making structures would make it difficult to do so in the face of outside pressure. Any change in Hamas will likely be gradual. As much as possible, the West should allow pressures from within the Arab and Muslim world to work. It’s important to recognize that the Palestinians themselves may demand a more moderate approach to Israel. Hamas is extremely sensitive to Palestinian public opinion and recognizes that the majority of voters actually favored parties supporting a two-state solution. (Hamas’s electoral campaign avoided mention of its hard-line position on Israel.) Other mainstream Islamist groups in the region—looking to Palestine as a test case—are unlikely to criticize (and may even cheer) a moderation of the Hamas position if it demonstrates that Islamists can govern effectively. But if Hamas will not repudiate its position on Israel and terrorism immediately, what realistic benchmarks might be used to judge its moderation? What sort of steps might assure Israelis that a viable negotiating process is possible despite the Hamas landslide? The demand that Hamas recognize Israel can be converted into several different formulas, some of which Hamas leaders have hinted (but only hinted) might be acceptable. For instance, Hamas might allow moderate Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to negotiate with Israel as he pleases, with any resulting agreement subject to a referendum. Or it might allow the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO, Israel’s formal negotiating partner) to bargain with Israel, with any final agreement subject to approval by the body that oversees the PLO, the Palestine National Council. These mechanisms would allow Hamas to hold to its positions while still bowing to political realities. None of these approaches offers guaranteed success, and the prospects for failure are substantial. But there will be plenty of time to deal with the consequences of failure. All players should now avoid locking themselves into positions they will regret later. If prospects for Arab democracy, democratic Islamic political movements, and Israeli-Palestinian peace are to survive the Hamas landslide victory, creative benchmarks rather than rigid slogans must be the guide. Nathan J. Brown is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, professor of political science at George Washington University, and author of Palestinian Politics after the Oslo Accords. He served as an observer for the Palestinian elections as a member of the National Democratic Institute/Carter Center team. Contact us
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