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Date posted: October 29, 2014
By JMCC

Poll No. 82 October/2014

Public Opinion poll conducted by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center

  • After the war: limited retreat in trust in Fatah, increased trust in Hamas
  • After a small setback in his popularity: President Abbas is still the most trusted personality
  • Majority supports leadership going to the UN
  • Majority: Salaries of Gaza government civil servants is responsibility of the National Consensus Government
  • ĎISISí harms the Palestinian cause
  • Minority supports US mediation in negotiations

A public opinion poll conducted by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center (JMCC) between 15th and 19th of October 2014 showed that the war achieved the interests of the Palestinian people and increased support for armed struggle and Hamas. It decreased support for negotiations and for Fatah. The majority of those polled, 53.4%, said the war achieved the Palestinian peopleís interests, while 21.8% said it harmed their interests. Meanwhile, the percentage of those who support military operations against Israeli targets increased from 31.5% before the war in April, 2014 to 42.7% after the war in October, 2014. The war seems to have caused an increase in the popularity of Hamas at the expense of Fatah. The percentage of trust in Hamas increased from 16.8% in April, 2014, before the war, to 25.7% in October 2014, after the war.

It is apparent from the poll results that the war resulted in a slight setback in the majority percentage which supports a resumption of negotiations, from 54.7% in April, 2014 before the war, to 52.4% in October of this year.

Trust in Fatah also dropped from 41.7% before the war to 35.1% after the war, even though President Abbas retained his position as the most trusted Palestinian personality. Still, the level of trust dropped from 25.2% in April, 2014 before the war, to 23.3% in October of the same year. In contrast, the level of trust in Ismail Haniyeh rose from 13.5% before the war to 17.9% after the war.

The PA and Gaza government salaries

The poll also showed that the major part of the Palestinian public, 43.2% believes the responsibility for providing salaries for government employees in the Gaza Strip is the responsibility of the National Consensus Government as opposed to 21.1% who considered it to be Hamasí responsibility and 28.9% who said it was the responsibility of donor countries.

Furthermore, 42.2% of those polled said they believed Hamas handled relief assistance during the war well, as opposed to 37.3% who said the contrary. It is noteworthy that the majority who said they did not believe the assistance was handled well, 53.6% are from Gaza, as opposed to 27.6% from the West Bank.

In general, there was no mentionable change on the majority percentage, 68.1%, who support the perpetuation of the PA, and the 26.8% who support the PAís dissolution in the current stage.

Who is the winning side in Gaza?

The majority, 57.1%, considered Hamas to be the winning side in the recent war as opposed to 8.0% who said Israel was the winning side. It should be mentioned that this constitutes a setback in the percentage who said Hamas was the winning side after the 2012 war, which was 70.6% at the time. It is also noticeable that 64.1% of those who consider Hamas to be the winning side are from the West Bank, while 45.3% are from the Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, almost half, 49.8% of those polled, held Israel responsible for the suffering of Gazaís people while 15.9% said their suffering lies with Hamas. It is noteworthy that 12.5% of those who considered the peopleís suffering to be the responsibility of Hamas are from the West Bank while 21.6% are from the Gaza Strip.

The war and diplomacy

At the level of political and diplomatic moves, the majority, 64.8% considered the Palestinian leadershipís move towards to the UN as a good step that serves Palestinian national interests, while 27.7% said the step would not make any difference. As for the Gaza Reconstruction Conference, the majority of those polled, 51.2% said they expected the donor countries to honor their commitments as opposed to 38.9% who said they did not expect them to honor them.

Furthermore, it seems a clear majority of 72.2% of those polled said they were satisfied with the level of solidarity in the West Bank with Gaza during the war, as opposed to 26.8% who said they were dissatisfied with the level of solidarity. This constitutes a retreat in West Bank solidarity after the last war in 2012 when the level of satisfaction was 85.1% and the level of dissatisfaction was only 13.8%.

As to whether it was possible for the Palestinians or the Israelis to have avoided the war, the majority of those polled, 79% said it would not have been possible to avoid it because Israel planned to launch the war in all cases. Contrastingly, 17.7% said the Palestinians could have avoided the war. It is worth noting that most of those who believe the Palestinians could have avoided the war are in Gaza, double those in the West Bank.

As for which party would be the best mediator in any future negotiations, the majority of those polled, 23.8% said the UN would be the best mediator, while 21% of respondents said the EU; 20.2% said Egypt, while 15.6% said the Middle East Quartet. Only 6% said the United States.

Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS)

As for the Palestinian peopleís position towards ISIS, the majority, 70.8%, responded negatively to the news that ISIS had advanced in Iraq and Syria, as opposed to 7.6% who had a positive response to it.

Regarding expectations from ISIS towards the Palestinian cause, 5.2% said they believed ISIS serves the Palestinian cause, while 45.4% said that ISIS harms the cause; 34.8% said it had no impact on the Palestinian cause.

To View the Full Result as PDF

Source: JMCC
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