خلفية الاستطلاع

في خطاب الرئيس محمود عباس الأخير في الأمم المتحدة طالب إسرائيل بتحمل مسئوليتها كسلطة احتلال، وأن الفلسطينيين سيكونوا في حل من تنفيذ الاتفاقيات التي أبرموها مع إسرائيل، إذا لم تقم إسرائيل بتنفيذ الاتفاقيات التي أبرماتها مع السلطة الفلسطينية.

وفي الاجتماع الأخير للمجلس المركزي التابع لمنظمة التحرير الفلسطينية أوصى المجلس السلطة الفلسطينية بوقف التنسيق الأمني مع إسرائيل، كما دعت السلطة الفلسطينية المواطنين الفلسطينين لمقاطعة البضائع الإسرائيلية.

نتيجة للاقتحامات المتكررة التي يقوم بها المستوطنون للمسجد الأقصى وبحماية من الجيش والشرطة الإسرائيلية، قامت في الأراضي الفلسطينية ردت فعل من قبل الفلسطينيين البعض أطلق عليها هبه جماهيرية، والبعض الآخر رأى بأنها بداية لانتفاضة ثالثة.

بعد الاتفاق الذي تم بين حركة فتح وحركة حماس من أجل إنهاء الانقسام الفلسطيني، لم يطبق من هذا الاتفاق سوى تشكيل حكومة الوحدة الوطنية، أما بقية الملفات الأخرى فما زالت لم تطبق.

نتائج الاستطلاع

فيما يلي نتائج الاستطلاع الحادي والخمسون الذي أجراه مركز استطلاعات الرأي والدراسات المسحية في جامعة النجاح الوطنية خلال الفترة الواقعة ما بين 20-22 تشرين الثاني 2015، حيث قامت جامعة النجاح الوطنية وبتمويل ذاتي في إجراء هذا المسح كاملاً.

تناول هذا الاستطلاع آراء الشارع الفلسطيني في المستجدات السياسية الراهنة على الساحة الفلسطينية، من حيث خطاب الرئيس محمود عباس في الأمم المتحدة، وقرار المجلس المركزي التابع لمنظمة التحرير الفلسطينية بوقف التنسيق الأمني مع إسرائيل. وردت الفعل الفلسطينية على الاقتحامات المتكررة للمسجد الأقصى. وحملة مقاطعة البضائع والمنتجات الإسرائيلية، بالإضافة إلى إمكانية إجراء انتخابات رئاسية وتشريعية وبلدية، بالإضافة إلى التأييد السياسي.

بلغ حجم عينة الاستطلاع 1363 شخصاً ممن بلغت أعمارهم 18 سنة فأكثر، وهم الذين لهم حق الانتخاب. وقد تم توزيع هذه الاستمارة في الضفة الغربية على 863 شخصا وفي قطاع غزة على 500 شخص. وتم سحب مفردات العينة بصورة عشوائية، وقد بلغ هامش الخطأ للعينة نحو ±3%، ومن جهة أخرى، فقد بلغت نسبة رفض الإجابة 2.3%.

النتائج الرئيسية:

• صنف 52.2% من أفرد العينة أن الأعمال والمواجهات التي تجري بين الفلسطينيين وإسرائيل في هذه الأيام على أنها إنتفاضة، بينما 43.7% قالوا بأنها هبه جماهيرية.
• أيد 52.1% من أفرد العينة قيام انتفاضة شعبية سلمية غير مسلحة في الأراضي الفلسطينية، بينما 44% عارضوا ذلك.
• أيد 43.7% من أفرد العينة قيام انتفاضة مسلحة في الأراضي الفلسطينية، بينما 51.4% عارضوا ذلك.
• رأى 32.4% من أفرد العينة بأنه إذا ما قامت انتفاضة فلسطينية، فإن الانتفاضة الشعبية السلمية غير المسلحة ستكون هي أكثر الأشكال خدمة للقضية الفلسطينية، بينما 21.4% قالوا بأن الانتفاضة المسلحة هي أثر خدمة للقضية الفلسطينية. و 26.4% قالوا بأن كلا النوعين من الانتفاضة مفيد للقضية الفلسطينية، و 14.5% قالوا بأن كلا النوعين من الانتفاضة غير مجدي للقضية الفلسطينية.
• اعتقد 89.9% بأن اعتداءات المستوطنين على المواطنين الفلسطينيين وممتلكاتهم يتم بتشجيع من الحكومة والجيش الإسرائيلي.
• اعتقد 79.1% بأن الحكومة الإسرائيلية قادرة على وضع حد لاعتداءات المستوطنين على المواطنين الفلسطينيين وممتلكاتهم.
• اعتقد 60.5% بأن تشكيل لجان محلية غير مسلحه من سكان القرى والبلدات المجاورة للمستوطنات تحد من اعتداءات المستوطنين على المواطنين الفلسطينيين وممتلكاتهم.
• أفاد 49.4% من أفراد العينة بأنهم سيشاركون شخصيا في لجان محلية غير مسلحه للحد من اعتداءات المستوطنين على المواطنين الفلسطينيين وممتلكاتهم إذا ما شكلت مثل هذه اللجان.
• اعتقد 33.5% من أفرد العينة بأن هناك فرصة لقيام دولة فلسطينية على حدود 1967، بينما 58.8% اعتقدوا بأنه لا توجد هذه الفرصة.
• أيد 45.6% من أفراد العينة قيام دولة فلسطينية على حدود عام 1967 كاملة كحل نهائي للقضية الفلسطينية، بينما 49.5% عارضوا ذلك.
• أيد 21% من أفراد العينة قيام دولة فلسطينية على حدود عام 1967 مع مبادلة بعض الأراضي كحل نهائي للقضية الفلسطينية، بينما 72.9% عارضوا ذلك.
• أيد 20% من أفراد العينة قيام دولة ثنائية القومية تضم العرب واليهود على أراضي فلسطين التاريخية كحل نهائي للقضية الفلسطينية، بينما 74.2% عارضوا ذلك.
• اعتقد 91.8% بأن الاقتحامات المتكررة من قبل المجموعات الاستيطانية للمسجد الأقصى تتم بتشجيع من الحكومة الإسرائيلية.
• اعتقد 81.4% بأنه على الدول العربية والإسلامية التدخل من أجل إجبار الحكومة الإسرائيلية على منع المجموعات الاستيطانية من دخول المسجد الأقصى.
• اعتقد 89% بأنه إذا ما استمرت الاقتحامات المتكررة من قبل المجموعات الاستيطانية للمسجد الأقصى فإنها قد تكون سببا لحدوث انتفاضة فلسطينية جديدة.
• اعتقد 23.8% بأن الاتفاق الذي تم بين الأردن وإسرائيل بتركيب كاميرات مراقبه في ساحات المسجد الأقصى سيحد من اقتحامات المستوطنين للمسجد الأقصى.
• اعتقد 11.4% بأن إسرائيل ستحترم الاتفاق الذي تم مع الأردن بخصوص تركيب كاميرات مراقبه في ساحات المسجد الأقصى.
• أيد 73.7% من أفرد العينة ما قاله الرئيس محمود عباس في خطابه في الأمم المتحدة حول عدم التزام الفلسطينيين بالاتفاقيات الموقعة مع إسرائيل ما دامت مصرة على عدم الالتزام بها وترفض وقف الاستيطان والإفراج عن الأسرى.
• أيد 74.2% ما قاله الرئيس محمود عباس في خطابه في الأمم المتحدة حول دعوة إسرائيل إلى أن "تتحمل مسؤولياتها كافة كسلطة احتلال لأنّ الوضع القائم لا يمكن استمراره.
• اعتبر 38.2% بأن التصريحات التي أدلى بها الرئيس أبو مازن في خطابة أمام الأمم المتحدة نهاية لمرحلة اتفاقيات أوسلو.
• أيد 56.1% طلب الرئيس محمود عباس وضع الأرضي الفلسطينية تحت الحماية الدولية.
• اعتقد 34.8% بأن السلطة الفلسطينية قادرة على تنفيذ ما جاء في خطاب الرئيس محمود عباس في الأمم المتحدة.
• أيد 46.9% حل السلطة الوطنية الفلسطينية، ودمج مؤسساتها الإدارية والأمنية في مؤسسات منظمة التحرير الفلسطينية، بينما 41.7% عارضوا ذلك.
• أيد 69.8% قرار المجلس المركزي لمنظمة التحرير الفلسطينية حول وقف التنسيق الأمني بين السلطة الفلسطينية وإسرائيل.
• اعتقد 27.3% بأن السلطة الفلسطينية ستقوم بتنفيذ قرار المجلس المركزي لمنظمة التحرير الفلسطينية حول وقف التنسيق الأمني بين السلطة الفلسطينية وإسرائيل.
• أيد 43.9% من أفرد العينة وقف العمل باتفاقية باريس الاقتصادية المعمول بها حاليا بين السلطة الفلسطينية وإسرائيل.
• رأى 87.2% من أفراد العينة بأنه على حركتي فتح وحماس الإسراع في تنفيذ المصالحة الوطنية.
• أفاد 46.8% من أفراد العينة بأنهم متفائلين تنفيذ المصالحة بين حركة فتح وحركة حماس خلال وقت قريب، بينما 48.9% أفادوا بأنهم متشائمين.
• اعتبر 14.5% من أفراد العينة بأن المسئول عن عدم تنفيذ اتفاق المصالحة الوطنية هي حركة حماس، بينما 10.7% أفادوا بأنها حركة فتح، و 72.5% أفادوا بأنها شخصيات في حركتي فتح وحماس.
• أيد 84.2% من أفراد العينة مقاطعة البضائع والمنتجات الإسرائيلية.
• توقع 53.4% من أفراد العينة نجاح حملة المقاطعة للمنتجات الإسرائيلية في الضفة الغربية وقطاع غزة، بينما 41.3% توقعوا فشلها.
• أفاد 8.7% من أفراد العينة بأنهم يشترون المنتجات الإسرائيلية في جميع الأحوال بينما 49.3% أفادوا بأنهم يشترون المنتجات الفلسطينية في جميع الأحوال و 36.1% أفادوا بأنهم يشترون حسب نوعية السلعة بغض النظر عن منشأها.
• أما عن سبب عدم التزام بعض الأشخاص بمقاطعة المنتجات الإسرائيلية فعزى أفراد العينة ذلك إلى:
  • 67.7% لعدم الثقة بجودة المنتج المحلي.
  • 65.9% لثقافة الاستهلاك عند بعض الأشخاص.
  • 61% لعدم وجود بدائل من منتجات محلية.
  • 53.1% لارتفاع اسعار المنتج المحلي.
  • 69.7% لأن المنتج الإسرائيلي متوفر بشكل دائم.
  • 28.2% لأن المنتجات الإسرائيلية هي مصدر لدخلهم.
• قيم 63.9% من أفراد العينة أداء حكومة الوفاق الوطني على أنه جيد فأكثر.
• قيم 64.8% من أفراد العينة أداء الرئاسة الفلسطينية على أنه جيد فأكثر.
• توقع 38.4% بأنه إذا ما أجريت انتخابات في الوقت الحاضر في الأراضي الفلسطينية فإن هذه الانتخابات ستكون نزيهة.
• 78.4% من أفراد العينة أفادوا بأنهم سيشاركون في الانتخابات الرئاسية المقبلة، ومن بين لأشخاص الذين أفادوا بأنهم سيشاركون في الانتخابات الرئاسية المقبلة 30.4% سيعطون أصواتهم لمرشح حركة فتح، في حين أفاد 17% أنهم سيعطون أصواتهم لمرشح حركة حماس.
• 77.9% من أفراد العينة أفادوا بأنهم سيشاركون في الانتخابات التشريعية المقبلة، ومن بين الأشخاص الذين أفادوا بأنهم سيشاركون في الانتخابات التشريعية المقبلة 33.7% سيعطون أصواتهم لمرشح حركة فتح، في حين أفاد 18.9% أنهم سيعطون أصواتهم لمرشح حركة حماس.
• في حالة إجراء انتخابات تشريعية الآن توقع 32.1% فوز حركة فتح في هذه الانتخابات، بينما 23.6% توقع فوز حركة حماس.
• 82.4% من أفراد العينة في أفادوا بأنهم سيشاركون في الانتخابات البلدية والمحلية المقبلة، ومن بين هؤلاء الأشخاص أفاد 26.9% سيعطون أصواتهم لقائمة حركة فتح، و 17.5% أنهم سيعطون أصواتهم لمرشح حركة حماس، بينما 13.7% أفادوا بأنهم سيعطوا أصوتهم لقائمة من العائلة أو الحمولة.
• أفاد 33.3% من أفراد العينة بأن الظروف السياسية والأمنية والاقتصادية الحالية تدفعهم للرغبة في الهجرة إلى خارج الوطن.
• أفاد 51.7% من أفراد العينة بأنهم خائفون على حياتهم في ظل هذه الظروف.
• أفاد 64.3% من أفراد العينة بأنهم متشائمون من الوضع العام الفلسطيني في هذه المرحلة.
• أفاد 80.7% من أفراد العينة بأنهم لا يشعرون بالأمان على أنفسهم وأسرهم وأملاكهم في ظل الوضع الراهن.
• بالنسبة للانتماء السياسي فقد أفاد أفراد العينة كالتالي:

  1.0%	حزب الشعب
  0.2%	الجبهة الديمقراطية
  2.0%	الجهاد الإسلامي
  30.7%	حركة فتح
  16.5%	حركة حماس
  0.2%	حزب فدا
  2.1%	الجبهة الشعبية
  0.9%	المبادرة الوطنية
  8.1%	مستقل وطني
  2.1%	مستقل إسلامي
  35.6%	لا أحد مما سبق ذكره
  0.7%	غير ذلك

  للاطلاع على النتائج بالكامل

The latest poll on the Palestinian public opinion prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali revealed the following:

• (81 %) of the Palestinians do not – to various degrees – trust the commitments of Israel and its obligations to the agreements signed with the Palestinian Authority.
• (59%) oppose the return of the relations with Israel, (38 %) agree to it.
• (55 %) oppose the resumption of the security coordination with Israel, (40 %) agree to it.
• (52 %) oppose the resumption of the peace negotiations with Israel, (43 %) agree to it.

Beit Sahour –Public Relations’ Section:

The latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (www.pcpo.org) during the period 19 – 22 November 2020 covered a random sample of (516) Palestinian respondents representing the various demographic specimens of Palestinians (18 years and above) living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. It revealed that the Palestinians are almost split between agreeing to and opposing the return of the relations with Israel and the resumption of the security coordination with it, albeit the opposition scale outweighs a little.

This poll, Dr. Kukali said, focuses mainly on the decision of the Palestinian Authority to resume the relations with Israel that are terminated since 5/9/2020

in response to the intention of the Israeli government to annex about 30 % of the area of the West Bank with full support of the US administration under President Donald Trump.

Dr. Kukali further noted that the motivation to take this courageous step by the Palestinian Authority was a letter from the Israeli government addressed to the PA confirming its willingness to abide by all the agreements signed with the PA.

Dr. Kukali added that the majority of the Palestinian people, in this poll, expressed however their mistrust of Israel’s intentions, as its actions on the ground speak another language. Nevertheless, the Palestinian people are still hopeful that they will have one day their own independent and sovereign State of Palestine with East Jerusalem it’s capital.

Dr. N. Kukali, President and founder of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, said the details of the key results of this poll are as follows:

Trusting Israel

Responding to the question: “What is the extent of your trust to Israel’s commitments and its obligations to the agreements previously signed with the Palestinian Authority?” (71 %) said “I’m not so sure”, (10 %) said “I’m not sure at all”, (9 %) “somewhat sure”, (6 %) “quite sure” and (4 %) said “I don’t know”.

Return of the relations with Israel

With regard to the question: “Do you agree to the return of the relations with Israel to their former status as they have been before 5/19/2020, or not?” (59 %) said “I oppose”, (38 %) “agree”, and (3 %) said “I don’t know”.

Reasons of agreeing to the return of the relations with Israel

In respect of the question: “What are the reasons that let you agree to the return of the relations with Israel?”, (5.6 %) said “crisis of the salary payment of employees”, (4.4 %) said “security stability and calm”, (26.9 %) said “improvement of the economic situation”, (9.4 %) “peace and stability”, (16.9 %) “permits and work in Israel”, (2.5 %) “the clearance funds”, (3.8 %) “permits to the hospitals and admission of patients for treatment”, (3.8 %) “facilitation of livelihood”, (8.8 %) said “lifting the siege from Gaza and opening the border-crossings”, (6.9 %) “due to the life connected with Israel”, (7.5 %) “for serving the citizens” and (3.5 %) “no reason”.

Security coordination with Israel

(55 %) of the Palestinians oppose the resumption of the security coordination with Israel, whilst (40 %) agree to it, and (5 %) declined to respond.

Resumption of the peace negotiations

(52 %) of the Palestinian public oppose the resumption of the peace negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and Israel at present, whilst (43 %) of them agree to it and (5 %) declined to respond.

The economic situation

(61 %) of the Palestinian public assessed their economic situation at present as “bad”, (32 %) as “fair” (middle) and only (7 %) as “good”.

Survey overview

Dr. Nabil Kukali, said that the data for this survey has been collected by using CATI, an effective method for data collection in quantitative researches conducted by phone. By this method, questions are addressed to respondents from a previously designed questionnaire. The survey sample is randomly taken in accordance with a long experienced methodology applied by PCPO covering (516) respondents, (311) are from the West Bank and (205) from Gaza Strip.

Dr. Kukali has further indicated that the margin of error was (±4.38 %) at a significance level of (95.0%). The sample allotment with respect to the residential areas was as follows: (60.3 %) in the West Bank, incl. Eastern Jerusalem and (39.7 %) in Gaza Strip. The average age of the respondents was (32.4) years.

The overwhelming majority of the Palestinians views the decision of the UAE to normalize relations with Israel as a betrayal or abandonment of the Palestinian cause, one that serves only the interests of Israel. A similar majority thinks that Saudi Arabia and Egypt, by endorsing that normalization, have in effect abandoned the Palestinian leadership. But most Palestinians also place the blame on themselves because they are divided and have normalized relations with Israel long before others

9-12 September 2020

This poll has been conducted in cooperation with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in Ramallah

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 9-12 September 2020. The period before the conduct of the poll witnessed several developments including a US announcement about an agreement between the UAE and Israel to normalize relations between the two countries. This normalization agreement stipulated an Israeli suspension or delay of the planned annexation of parts of the West Bank. The period also witnessed a rise in the daily number of coronavirus infections and continued stalemate in Palestinian-Israeli relations that followed a PA decision to sever all security and civil links with Israel which led during the past months to a significant financial loss to the PA. This PA decision came in response to an Israeli announcement about the intention to annex about 30% of the West Bank. This press release addresses these issues and covers other matters such as Palestinian parliamentary and presidential elections, general conditions in the Palestinian territories, the peace process and the future possible directions for Palestinians in the absence of a viable peace process. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is +/-3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel. 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

Finding of the September 2020 poll show a great Palestinian public anger with the UAE decision to normalize relations with Israel viewing it as serving only the interests of Israel and as a betrayal or an abandonment of the Palestinian cause and at the same time as a big failure of Palestinian diplomacy. Additionally, the overwhelming majority estimates that the Palestinian leadership has lost its Arab allies as Saudi Arabia will soon follow the UAE in normalizing relations and that Egypt, by endorsing the deal, has in effect abandoned PA president Mahmoud Abbas. Nonetheless, most believe that the majority of the Arab public is opposed to the normalization deal. Findings show that the public blames the Palestinians

themselves for this development: the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and the fact that they had normalized relations with Israel before many others may have hastened the arrival of this day.

The public does not show an appreciation of the fact that the UAE-Israel deal requires the suspension of the annexation plan. The reason for this is the fact that three quarters think that the suspension is only temporary and will soon take place, the normalization deal notwithstanding. Moreover, based on this assessment, the public is opposed to the restoration of PA-Israel security coordination despite the fact that half of the public wishes to restore civil and fiscal relations between the two sides.

Findings also show a significant decline in support for the two-state solution compared to the situation three months ago. They also show that the consensus in rejecting the Trump plan, the deal of the century, first documented in PSR’s February 2020 poll, remains unchanged. Similarly, the overwhelming majority remains opposed to a resumption of contacts with the Trump administration. Despite the majority expectation that Trump will lose the upcoming US presidential elections, only one fifth expects positive policy change if the Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins.

Domestically, findings show continued satisfaction with the PA measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic despite significant decline in the level of satisfaction, especially with the prime minister’s performance. Moreover, a majority is opposed to the severing of coordination and cooperation with Israel in the fight against the spread of the coronavirus.

Demand for the resignation of president Abbas rises in this poll. Parallel to this, satisfaction with the performance of the president has declined. As a result, if elections were held today, Hamas’ Haniyyeh would win a majority of the public vote. This development might have been boosted by the current economic difficulties in the West Bank resulting from the severing of civil and fiscal coordination with Israel and the resulting inability of the PA to pay the public sector in full. Findings also show a drop in the perception of safety and security in the West Bank and an increase in the desire to emigrate. Despite these developments, the popularity of Fatah in the West Bank is not negatively affected; to the contrary, the findings show a little improvement in its popularity.

(1) UAE-Israel normalization agreement:

• A majority of 63% view the normalization agreement between the UAE and Israel as a major event that represents a significant regional shift while 32% view as minor development.
• Findings show a consensus (86%) that the agreement serves only the interests of Israel while 8% think it serves the interests of both the Palestinians and the Israelis and only 1% think it serves the interests of the Palestinians only.
• We asked the public to pick one word that represents its sentiments toward the normalization agreement: the majority (53%) picked “betrayal,” 17% picked “abandonment” 13% “insult,” 9% “indifference,” 6% “sadness,” while only 1% picked words like “satisfaction,” “pride,” and “joy.”
• Most Palestinians (57%) believe that the majority among the Arab public is opposed to the normalization agreement while 20% believe an Arab majority supports it.
• A large majority (70%) believes that other Arab countries, such as Bahrain, Oman, Sudan, and Morocco, will sign similar agreements with Israel while 24% believe they will not do that.
• An overwhelming majority (80%) believes that Saudi Arabia has given the green light to the UAE to sign the normalization agreement and a similar majority (82%) believes that Saudi Arabia too will sign a similar public agreement.
• Similarly, an overwhelming majority of the public (78%) believes that the Egyptian position welcoming the agreement represents an abandonment of the Palestinian leadership led by Abbas while 18% do not share this view.
• A majority of 55% believes that Mohammad Dahlan was one of the participants in the making of the UAE-Israel normalization agreement while 24% do not share this view.
• Nonetheless, a majority of 53% believes that the blame for the normalization deal falls on the shoulders of the Palestinians themselves due to their division and due to the fact that they have recognized Israel and normalized relations with it long before the others; 42% disagree with this view.
• Also, a majority of 62% views the UAE defection from the previous declared Arab consensus on Palestine as a great failure for Palestinian diplomacy; 31% do not share this view.

(2) Annexation and the severing of relations with Israel in post UAE-Israel normalization:

• Three quarters of the public (75%) believe that the normalization agreement forces Israel to merely postpone annexation while 19% think it forces it to put an end to it.
• Now, after the normalization agreement, a majority of 62% is opposed to the restoration of security coordination with Israel while 32% are in favor of restoring it.
• But half of the public (50%) supports, and 45% oppose, the restoration of civil and fiscal coordination with Israel.
• If Israel conditioned resumption of civil and fiscal coordination with a resumption of security coordination, a majority of 59% will oppose, and 35% will support, the resumption of relations.
• In response to an actual Israeli annexation of Palestinian territories, the public is divided on how to respond. When asked to choose one of five possible responses, 28% favored resumption of armed struggle, 20% selected stopping the implementation of the Oslo agreement, another 20% favored return to negotiations with Israel and the US on the basis of a Palestinian peace plan, 19% preferred waging nonviolent resistance, and 6% selected the abandonment of the two-state solution in favor of a one-state solution.
• The public indicates great worries about the future in case of continued severing of relations with Israel.
• For example, 74% say they are worried that Israel will stop transfer of clearance revenues, which would mean that the PA would not be able to pay the public sector. 75% say they are worried that patients would not be able to travel from the Gaza Strip to the West Bank or Israel for medical treatment. 77% are worried that they would soon witness shortages or complete cut-off in supplies of water and electricity from Israel.
• 59% are worried that armed clashes would erupt with Israel. Another 59% are worried that the PA would collapse or fail to deliver services. 70% are worried that security chaos and anarchy would return to Palestinian life. Finally, 60% say they are worried that they would not be able to travel abroad via Jordan.
• It is interesting to note that despite the great worry, a majority of the public (63%) does not believe that the PA has in fact ended security coordination with Israel and only 30% believe it indeed did.
• A majority of 61% does not expect Israel to resume its military rule and that of its civil administration now after Abbas’ decision to sever relations with Israel and his invitation to Israel to assume full responsibility for the occupied territories. One third (32%) expects Israel to do so.
• A large majority of 75% says it does not prefer the return of Israeli military rule or civil administration while only 21% say they do prefer that.

(3) The Peace process and the US “Deal of the Century”:

• Support for the concept of the two-state solution declines to 39% and opposition stands at 58%. No description or details were provided for the concept.
• Three months ago, support for the concept stood at 45%.
• A majority of 62% believes that the two-state solution is no longer practical or feasible due to the expansion of Israeli settlements while 31% believe that the solution remains practical. Moreover, 77% believe that the chances for the creation of a Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel in the next five years are slim or nonexistence while 20% believe the chances to be medium or high.
• The most preferred way out of the current status quo is “reaching a peace agreement with Israel” according to 27% of the public while 36% prefer waging “an armed struggle against the Israeli occupation.” 14% prefer “waging a non-violent resistance” and 14% prefer to keep the status quo. Three months ago, 28% said that they prefer reaching a peace agreement with Israel and 38% said they prefer waging an armed struggle.
• When asked about the most effective means of ending the Israeli occupation, 41% chose armed struggle, 24% negotiations, and 26% popular resistance. Three months ago, 45% chose armed struggle and 24% chose negotiations.
• We asked the public about the Trump plan, known as the “deal of the century:” 92% say they oppose it and 5% say they support it. Three months ago, 88% expressed opposition to the plan.
• If the Palestinians accept the Deal of the Century, what are the chances that such acceptance would lead to the end of the Israeli occupation and to the building of a Palestinian state? 55% think the chances are zero; 26% think the chances are less than 50%; and only 16% think that the chances are 50% or more.
• A majority of 71% is opposed and 19% are not opposed to a resumption of dialogue between the Palestinian leadership and the Trump Administration.
• Official contacts between the PA and the US government were suspended by the PA after the US, in December 2017, recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Three months ago, 69% said they were opposed to the resumption of dialogue with the US.
• A majority of 61% expects president Trump to lose the next US presidential election and 30% expect him to win it. Nonetheless, only 21% expect a positive change if Biden wins while 34% believe US policy will not change and 35% expect it to become worse.

(4) PA performance during the COVID-19 pandemic:

• A two-third majority (68%) is satisfied with the measure taken by the PA to prevent travel between the various governorates in order to contain the Coronavirus pandemic.
• Similarly, the findings show that the majority is satisfied with the performance of the various entities and individuals involved in the management of the Coronavirus crisis. For example, 64% express satisfaction with the performance of the security services deployed in their areas and 57% are satisfied with the performance of the governor in their area. On the other hand, satisfaction with the performance of the prime minister Mohammad Shtayyeh stands at 48% today compared to 62% three months ago.
• The majority indicates that it has been harmed economically as a result of the pandemic: 70% say their income or salary has been reduced; 61% say their income or salary has been stopped; and 52% say they stopped working or became unemployed.
• A majority of 55% say that are dissatisfied with the PA decision during the past several months to stop cooperation and coordination with Israel in the health sector with the aim of combating the coronavirus, 42% are satisfied with that decision.

(5) Legislative and presidential election

• 62% of the public want president Abbas to resign while 31% want him to remain in office. Three months ago, 58% said they want Abbas to resign. Demand for Abbas’ resignation stands at 54% in the West Bank and 74% in the Gaza Strip.
• Level of satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas stands at 31% and dissatisfaction at 63%. Level of satisfaction with Abbas stands at 36% in the West Bank and 24% in the Gaza Strip. Three months ago, satisfaction with Abbas stood at 36% (44% in the West Bank and 24% in the Gaza Strip).
• If new presidential elections were held today and only two were nominated, Mahmoud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 39% and the latter 52% of the vote (compared to 42% for Abbas and 49% for Haniyeh threw months ago). In the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 32% of the vote (compared to 32% three months ago) and Haniyeh receives 62% (compared to 61% three months ago). In the West Bank, Abbas receives 46% (compared to 51% three months ago) and Haniyeh 42% (compared to 38% three months ago). If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Barghouti receives 55% and Haniyeh 39%. If the competition is between prime minister Mohammad Shtayyeh and Haniyyeh, the former receives 41% and the latter 51%.
• We asked in an open-ended question about potential Abbas successors: If president Abbas does not nominate himself in a new election, 22% prefer to see Marwan Barghouti replacing him, while 18% prefer Ismail Haniyeh. Mohammad Dahlan is preferred by 7% (1% in the West Bank and 15% in the Gaza Strip), Mohammad Shtayyeh is preferred by 5%, Mustafa Barghouti by 4%, Khalid Mishal by 3%, and Salam Fayyad by 2%.
• We also asked the public about its willingness to participate in the upcoming elections and if so, to whom it will vote. If new legislative elections were held today with the participation of all factions, 61% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 34% say they will vote for Hamas and 38% say they will vote for Fatah, 8% will vote for all other third parties combined, and 20% are undecided. Three months ago, vote for Hamas stood at 34% and Fatah at 36%. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands today at 45% (compared to 47% three months ago) and for Fatah at 30% (compared to 28% three months ago). In the West Bank, vote for Hamas stands at 23% (compared to 23% three months ago) and Fatah at 46% (compared to 42% three months ago).

(6) Domestic conditions:

• Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip stands at 5% and positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank stands at 16%.
• Nonetheless, perception of safety and security in the Gaza Strip stands at 71% and in the West Bank at 57%.
• 24% of the public say they want to emigrate due to political, security, and economic conditions. The percentage in the Gaza Strip stands at 25% and in the West Bank at 24%. Three months ago, only 18% of West Bankers expressed a desire to emigrate.
• Perception of corruption in PA institutions stands at 80%. Three months ago, 81% expressed a similar view.
• The public is divided over its assessment of the PA: a majority of 62% views it as a burden on the Palestinian people while 33% view it as an asset for the Palestinian people. Three months ago, only 52% viewed the PA as a burden.
• A year and a half since the formation of the Shtayyeh government, findings indicate persistent pessimism. Responding to a question about expectations regarding the ability of the Shtayyeh government to make progress in reconciliation and reunification, 60% expect failure; only 31% expect success. In a similar question about the ability of the new government to organize legislative or legislative and presidential elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, a majority of 58% expects failure and 33% expect success.
• In another question about the ability of the new government to improve economic conditions, a majority of 61% expects failure and 32% expects success.
• An overwhelming majority of the public (80%) is opposed to the arrest by the PA security services of activists who were planning to demonstrate or were demonstrating against corruption in the PA while 17% support these arrests.
• 56% (66% in the West Bank and 41% in the Gaza Strip) believes that it will not receive a fair trial if it finds itself in a Palestinian court while 36% (23% in the West Bank and 55% in the Gaza Strip) believe that will receive a fair trial. Six month ago, 42% said it believes it will receive a fair trial.
• A majority of 64% (75% in the West Bank and 49% in the Gaza Strip) thinks that the Palestinian judiciary rules according to whims and interests; 31% disagree and believe that it rules according to the law. Six month ago, 41% said the judiciary and courts rule according to the law.
• We asked the public about its viewership habits in the last three months. Findings indicate that Al Jazeera TV viewership remains the highest, standing at 19%, followed by Palestine TV (15%), Al Aqsa TV (13%), Maan TV at 12%, Palestine Today TV at 11%, Al Arabiya and al Mayadeen at 4% each, and finally al Manar at 2%.

(7) Reconciliation:

• 37% are optimistic and 59% are pessimistic about the success of reconciliation. three months ago, optimism stood at 29%.
• Similarly, 41% believe that unity will not be resumed and that two separate entities will evolve in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 45% believe unity will eventually return but only after a long time and only 11% believe unity will return soon.

(8) Muslims in China:

• 80% of the Palestinians believe that if press reports about the treatment of the Uighur Muslims in China are true, Palestinians should condemn the Chines policy towards its Muslim community and 15% disagree with that.
• An overwhelming majority of 79% indicates that it does not believe the statement of the Chinese government that the camps built by China to allegedly detain the Uighur Muslims are in fact teaching centers aiming at eradicating extremism; 10% believe the Chinese statement.
• Similarly, an overwhelming majority of 83% believes that world Muslims should express solidarity with the Uighur Muslims against the Chinese government while 10% disagree with that.
• An overwhelming majority of 80% approves of the Turkish president Erdogan’s decision to transform the Hagia Sophia museum into a mosque; 16% disapprove.

(9) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:

• 42% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital. By contrast, 29% believe the first most vital goal should be to obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages, 15% believe that the first and most vital goal should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings; 13% believe it should be to establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians.
• The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today is poverty and unemployment in the eyes of 27%, the spread of corruption in public institutions in the eyes of 25%, the continuation of occupation and settlement activities in the eyes of 24%, the continued siege of the Gaza Strip and the closure of its crossings in the eyes of 13%, and the lack of national unity in the eyes of 10%.

The latest poll on the Palestinian public opinion prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali revealed the following:

• (55.5%) believe that the decision of the Palestinian Authority to end the security and civil coordination with Israel was a right decision, (49.1 %) are among the residents of the West Bank, and (65 %) residents of Gaza Strip.

• (52.3%) believe that the cessation of the security and civil coordination with Israel will negatively affect the economic and living conditions of the Palestinian people.

• (48.7%) believe that ending the security and civil coordination will negatively affect the restriction of the spread of corona epidemic (Covid-19). .

The latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (www.pcpo.org) during the period from June 14-22, 2020 covered a random sample of (1250) Palestinian respondents representing the various demographic specimens of Palestinians (18 years and above) living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. It revealed that (55.5 %) of the Palestinian public believe that the decision of the Palestinian Authority to end the security and civil coordination with Israel was a right decision.

Dr. Nabil Kukali, President and founder of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, said that the suspension of the security and civil coordination came as response to the Israeli position, that is supported by President Tramp to annex vast regions of the West Bank that makes up around (30 %) of the area of the West Bank, including the Jordan Valley region, the region north of the Dead Sea and the settlements to its sovereignty, the matter that the Palestinians consider as ultimate undermining of the opportunity to establish their own independent state.

Dr. Kukali further added that the poll results unveil that there is a fear of deterioration of the economic and living conditions in the Palestinian Territories as well as the mutual cooperation in restricting the spread of the corona-virus (COVID-19).

Dr. Kukali said the details of the key results of this poll are as follows:

Cessation of the Coordination as a Right Decision

(55.5 %) of the Palestinian public believe that the decision of the Palestinian Authority to end the security and civil coordination with Israel was a right decision; (49.1 %) of them are residents of the West Bank, and (65 %) residents of Gaza Strip, whilst (44.5 %) of the Palestinians, (50.9 %) of them in the West Bank and (35 %) in Gaza Strip, believe that the decision was wrong.

The results in detail further reveal that the governorates with the positive attitude towards the decision are in the West Bank in the following order: Al-Bireh & Ramallah (81.8 %), Jerusalem (62.8 %), Jericho (55.6 %), Hebron (52.9 %), Salfit (52.2 %), Nablus (43.3 %), Toubas (37.5 %), Toulkarem (37.3 %), Jenin (34 %), Qalqilia (27.8 %) and Bethlehem with (15.9 %) the least positive attitude.

On the other hand, the governorates with the negative attitude towards the decision are in the West Bank in the following order: Bethlehem (84.1 %), followed by Qalqilia (72.2 %), Jenin (66 %), Toulkarem (62.7 %), Toubas (62.5 %), Salfit (47.8 %), Nablus (56.6 %), Hebron (47.1 %), Jericho (44.4 %), Jerusalem (37.2 %) and Ramallah (18.8 %).

In Gaza Strip, the governorates with the positive attitude towards the PA decision are in the following order: Rafah (78.1 %), followed by Deir al-Balah (75.9 %), Gaza City (63.9 %), Khan Younis (61.1 %) and North Gaza (54.9 %).

Cessation of the Coordination and the Economic Situation

Responding to the question:” Do you think that the cessation of the security and civil coordination with Israel will improve the economic and living conditions of the Palestinian people or rather worsen them ?, (18.7 %) said “will improve them”, (52.3 %) “will worsen them”, (15.8 %) “will have no effect” and (13.2 %) said “I don’t know”.

Cessation of the Coordination and the Restriction of Corona-virus (COVID-19)

With regard to the question:” In view of the coordination between the Palestinian Authority and Israel on restricting COVID-19, do you think that ending the security and civil coordination between them would negatively affect this COVID-19 coordination, or not ?, (48.7 %) said “will negatively affect”, (21.7 %) said “will remain unchanged” and (29.6 %) have no opinion.

Will the Cessation of the Coordination impede the Annexation of Jordan Valley and the Settlements ? In respect of the question:” Some people in the Palestinian Territories believe that ending the security and civil coordination between the PA and Israel will impede the Israeli annexation of vast areas of the West Bank (Jordan Valley and the settlements) by Israel, while others believe that it will boost the annexation of these areas by Israel. Which of these two opinions is closer to yours ?, “(28.1 %) said “it will impede Israel”, (35.1 %) “it will encourage Israel to annex these areas”, (26.5 %) “the decision of the PA will have no effect on the annexation” and (10.3 %) said “I don’t know”.

Seriousness of the Palestinian Authority

Responding to the question:”Up to which extent do you believe that the PA will adhere to its decision of terminating the security and civil coordination with Israel ?”, (12.5 %) said “to a great extent”, (37 %) “to a fair extent”, (35.3 %) “to a little extent” and (15.2 %) have no opinion.

The Need for Civil Coordination

With respect of the question addressed to the West Bank respondents:”If you were in need for a coordination or for getting a job, or going to a hospital in Israel, would you go to the bureaus of the Israeli civil administration or to the Palestinian liaison bureaus “, (22 %) said “I would go to the bureaus of the Israeli civil administration”, whilst (56.6 %) said they “would go to the Palestinian liaison bureaus”, and (21.4 %) said “ I don’t know”.

Methodology of the Survey Study in the Palestinian Territories

Dr. Nabil Kukali, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the respondents' homes. The choices were randomly taken in accordance with a long experienced methodology applied by PCPO from a total of (180) sites, (135) are from the West Bank and (45) from Gaza Strip.

Dr. Kukali has further indicated that the margin of error was (±2.77 %) at a significance level of (95.0%). He added that the rate of the female respondents in this survey was (49.6%) against (50.4%) male respondents. The sample allotment with respect to the residential areas was as follows: (63.0 %) in the West Bank, incl. Eastern Jerusalem and (37.0 %) in Gaza Strip. The average age of the respondents was (31.5) years.

For following up the most recent polls of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, please revert to our website: www.pcpo.org

Background

The US President, Donald Trump, declared his recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and gave orders to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem. Following this recognition, the Palestinian Authority declared freezing all communication with the US Administration. The US Administration, however, declares every once in a while that it will launch the “deal of the century” which, as they think, will be the solution for the Palestinian question.

A huge explosion targeted the Prime Minister’s (Dr. Rami Hamdallah) motorcade in the area of Beit Hanoun during his visit to the Gaza Strip to inaugurate some projects.

President Mahmoud Abbas called for establishing a multilateral international mechanism emanating from an international conference and based on the international decisions. Such conference would launch new and real negotiations that would lead to the two-state solution.

The Results

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 56 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 22-24 March 2018. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

This poll undertakes the new political realities, particularly Donald Trumps’ recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moving the US embassy there. The poll also undertakes the explosion that targeted the Prime Minister’s (Dr. Rami Hamdallah) motorcade during his visit to the Gaza Strip, the possibilities of conducting presidential and legislative elections in addition to the political affiliations of Palestinian people.

The sample included 1361 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 861 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 2.3% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

The General Results:

• 81.3% of respondents believed that the explosion that targeted the motorcade of Prime Minister, Dr. Rami Hamdallah, during his visit to Gaza aimed at hindering the reconciliation process.
• 17.2% of respondents said that the side that bears responsibility for the explosion that targeted the motorcade of Prime Minister, Dr. Rami Hamdallah, during his visit to Gaza is Hamas, 8.7% said it is Fateh, 24.9% said it is a group oust side Fateh and Hamas, and 32.2% said it is Israel.
• According to the respondents’ viewpoint, 61% said the aim of the side that carried out the explosion that targeted the motorcade of Prime Minister, Dr. Rami Hamdallah, during his visit to Gaza is to abort the national reconciliation efforts, 9.4% said the explosion was to protest against the policy of the Palestinian government, and 22.6% said the explosion was a call to a complete separation between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
• 14.5% of respondents expected that the reconciliation will succeed after the explosion that targeted the motorcade of Prime Minister, Dr. Rami Hamdallah, during his visit to the Gaza Strip, 39.9% expected reconciliation to falter during this period, and 39.3% expected it to fail.
• 71.4% of respondents assessed the performance of the Prime Minister in pushing forward the national reconciliation efforts as "good" and higher than "good".
• 23.9% of respondents believed that there is a possibility for the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders while 68% said that there is no such possibility.
• 39.7% of respondents supported the creation of a Palestinian state on the entire area of the 1967 borders as a final solution for the Palestinian cause while 53.9% said that there is no such possibility.
• 22.2% of respondents supported the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders with some land exchange as a final solution for the Palestinian cause while 71.3% rejected.
• 18.7% of respondents supported the creation of a binational state for Arabs and Jews on historic Palestine as a final solution for the Palestinian cause while 76.7% rejected.
• After the US declaration to move its embassy to Jerusalem, 20.4% of respondents believed that the two-state solution is still viable; 71.3% believed it is not anymore viable.
• After the US declaration to move its embassy to Jerusalem, 93.5% of respondents believed that the USA is not any more an impartial peace broker between Israel and the Palestinians.
• 48.6% of respondents supported the Palestinian Authority's call for enlarging the negotiation sponsorship between the Palestinians and Israel or finding a new international mechanism to sponsor negotiation with Israel.
• 72.4% of respondents believed that the "deal of the century" that the US president intends to launch aims at ransacking the Palestinian issue.
• 73.5% of respondents supported the position of the Palestinian leadership to freeze communications with the US administration following the US president's declaration that Jerusalem is the Capital of Israel and the imminent moving of the US embassy there.
• 52.1% of respondents supported President Mahmoud Abbas’ call for establishing a multilateral international mechanism emanating from an international conference and based on the international decisions to launch serious and real negotiation that would eventually lead to the two-state solution and the establishment of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders with Jerusalem as its capital.
• From among the decisions made by the Palestinian Central Council (PCC) of the Palestinian Liberation Organizations (PLO) that I support are the following:
  • 69.4% Freezing the Oslo Agreement
  • 76.8% Filing a complaint at the International Criminal Court
  • 71.6% Stopping the security coordination with Israel
• Of respondents believed that stopping the US financial support of the UNRWA aims at:
  • 81.4% Putting pressure on the Palestinian leadership so that they accept “the deal of the century”
  • 81.5% Closing the file of refugees and cancelling “the right of return”
  • 80.8% Weakening the Palestinian position in their demands for the right of refugees.
  • 78.9% Weakening the Palestinian Authority’s general stand.
• 68.6% of respondents supported the convening of the Palestine National Council in the near future.
• 51.1% of respondents believed that it is possible to reach a political program that will be agreed upon by all Palestinians.
• 68.3% of respondents supported the accession of Hamas and Islamic Jihad to the PLO.
• 48.3% of respondents believed that Fateh is faithful in its intentions towards the national reconciliation.
• 37.2% of respondents believed that Hamas is faithful in its intentions towards the national reconciliation.
• 59.2% of respondents supported providing international protection for the Palestinian people who have been under occupation since 1967.
• 54.6% of respondents supported the rise of a peaceful, unarmed intifada in the Palestinian Territories; 41.3% rejected that
• 38.1% of respondents supported the rise of an armed intifada in the Palestinian Territories; 56.1% rejected that.
• 26.6% of respondents saw that if a Palestinian intifada takes place, a peaceful and unarmed intifada will be the best form of resistance that would serve the Palestinian cause, 19.8% said that an armed intifada would serve the Palestinian cause better, 24.3% said that both forms are useful for the Palestinian cause; 25.2% said that both forms are useless.
• 64.2% of respondents assessed the performance of the National Unity Government as “good” and better than “good”.
• 65.2% of respondents assessed the performance of the Palestinian Presidency as “good” and better than “good”
• 33.1% of respondents expected that if elections are conducted in the present time in the Palestinian Territories, they will be fair.
• 79.9% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 38.4% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 12.3% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
• 79.1% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 38.4% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 12.9% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
• If PLC elections are to be conducted, 41.2% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 13.3% expected the winning of Hamas.
• 81.5% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming municipality and local council elections. From among those who said they will participate, 31.2% said that they will give their votes to Fateh’s candidates, 8.9% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates and 14.8% said they will give their votes to the representative of their family or clan.
• 33.7% of respondents said that the current political, security and economic circumstances compel them to desire to emigrate.
• 51.7% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
• 62.8% of respondents said that they are pessimistic about the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
• 79.1% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.

To View the Full Result as PDF

Background

After ten years of Palestinian division, Fateh and Hamas declared an end to it. The reconciliation was achieved after a series of consultations and mediations from different sides to end the division.

The Coalition Government presided by Dr. Rami Hamdallah went to the Gaza Strip and held the government meeting in Gaza city. Several ministers inspected their ministries in the Gaza Strip to resume their responsibilities there.

Fateh and Hamas agreed to resume their meetings in Cairo to resolve the unsettled issues and hand in the administration of the Gaza Strip to the Coalition Government..

The Results

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 55 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 12-14 October 2017. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

This poll undertakes the new political developments on the Palestinian scene, particularly the national reconciliation, the ending of the Palestinian division, the visit of the Palestinian Coalition Government presided by Dr. Rami Hamdallah to the Gaza Strip, the possibilities of conducting presidential and legislative elections in addition to the political affiliations of Palestinian people.

The sample included 1862 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 862 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 1.8% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

The General Results:

• 45% of respondents saw that the Palestinian division is ended once and for all.
• 71.8% of respondents assessed Dr. Rami Hamdallah and the Palestinian Government’s visit to the Gaza Strip as ‘good’ or better than good.
• 52.7% of respondents saw that Dr. Rami Hamdallah and the Palestinian Government’s visit to the Gaza Strip marks the end of the Palestinian division.
• 70.2% of respondents assessed the performance of Prime Minster Dr. Rami Hamdallah in pushing forward the endeavors for the national reconciliation as ‘good’ or better than good.
• 52% of respondents considered dissolving the Administrative Committee in the Gaza Strip as the major reason for the Palestinian reconciliation.
• 45.4% of respondents believed that Hamas will win in its popularity among Palestinian people after concluding the reconciliation; 17% believed it will lose.
• 59% of respondents believed that Fateh will win in its popularity among Palestinian people after concluding the reconciliation; 9.8% believed it will lose.
• 14% of respondents believed that the siege on the Gaza Strip will be uplifted after the visit of the Palestinian Government to the Gaza Strip; 23.3% believed it will remain as it is.
• 41.3% of respondents believed that without the approval of the USA and Israel and their withholding of the veto, the Palestinian reconciliation would not have happened.
• 54.8% of respondents believed that the pressures and procedures that President Abu Mazen imposed on the Gaza Strip and the leaders of Hamas contributed to strengthening the chances of reconciliation.
• 21.2% of respondents saw that if uplifting the pressures and procedures that President Abu Mazen imposed on the Gaza Strip is delayed, it will influence the efforts of reconciliation positively; 64.4% saw that it will influence the reconciliation efforts negatively.
• 64.5% of respondents believed that it is possible to reach a political program that all Palestinians would agree on; 27.4% believed the opposite.
• 40.1% of respondents believed that the outside pressures will influence the achievement of a national reconciliation; 40.2% believed that outside pressures will not have any effect.
• 75.1% of respondents saw that the national reconciliation will influence the freedom of opinion and expression in Palestine in a positive way; 22% believed that it will not have any effect.
• The most important obstacles that may stand in the path of reconciliation according to respondents are the following:
  • 78.0% Collecting the arms of resistance.
  • 63.0% Merging the employees of Hamas in the Palestinian Authority.
  • 60.2% The distribution of ministries in the unity government.
  • 68.2% The personal interests of some officials of Fateh and Hamas.
  • 68.2% The disagreement on the political program.
  • 67.4% The dominance over the security apparatuses in the Gaza Strip.
  • 61.9% The Israel aggressions against the Gaza Strip.
  • 61.0% Outside intrusions.
• The respondents saw that the national reconciliation efforts to solve the problems of the Gaza Strip will be as follows:
  • 76.3% Electricity
  • 69.7% Merging the Gaza Strip employees in the Palestinian Authority
  • 68.8% Opening the border crossings and facilitating free movement.
  • 58.0% Ending the siege
• The respondents saw that the national reconciliation will influence the lives of people in the Gaza Strip as follows:
  • 71.7% Improving the living conditions
  • 66.0% Peace and security
  • 60.0% Freedom of expression
  • 57.4% The environment
  • 64.4% Creating job opportunities
  • 68.7% Education
  • 66.5% The health sector
  • 62.0% Freedom of movement
• The respondents saw that the one who bears the responsibility of the Palestinian division for more than 10 years is:
  • 65.8% Fateh.
  • 75.1% Hamas.
  • 81.7% The stand of the Americans and Israelis who benefit from the division.
  • 45.3% The leftist and liberal powers.
  • 61.5% The weak popular pressure on the two sides of the division
  • 75.1% Personalities from Fateh and Hamas.
• 74.8% of respondents supported the accession of Hamas and Islamic Jihad to the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO).
• 65.5% of respondents believed that Fateh is faithful in its intentions towards the national reconciliation.
• 60.8% of respondents believed that Hamas is faithful in its intentions towards the national reconciliation.
• 49.3% of respondents believed that the officials in Fateh believe in democracy and the rotation of power.
• 39.8% of respondents believed that the officials in Hamas believe in democracy and the rotation of power.
• According to the point of view of respondents, the best solution for the arms of resistance is through:
  • 36.2% Collecting all arms and there should be no arms other than the arms of one authority
  • 24.0% Restoring the situation to how it was before the dominance of Hamas over the Gaza Strip
  • 31.5% Leaving the situation as it is now
• According to the point of view of respondents, the best political program for the national unity government is:
  • 15.2% The PLO program
  • 3.7% Hamas program
  • 76.5% A program that will be nationally acceptable to all the PLO factions, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad.
• 78.4% of respondents believed that after heading towards national reconciliation, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip will witness presidential and legislative elections.
• 63.3% of respondents expected the USA to exert pressure on some parties to compel them to go back to the negotiating table and make negotiations succeed.
• From among respondents who supported an intervention by the USA to exert pressure on some parties to lead these negotiations to a successful end, 47.1% expected the pressure to be exerted on the Palestinian side; 10.3% expected it to be exerted on the Israeli side while 40.5% expected it to be on both sides.
• 28.9% of respondents saw that the USA is serious this time in leading the negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis to a successful end.
• 30.9% of respondents believed that the USA has a prepared peace plan between the Palestinians and the Israelis; 57.3% believed that the USA does not have a plan for peace.
• 62.4% of respondents supported providing international protection for the Palestinian people who have been under occupation since 1967.
• 46.6% of respondents supported the rise of a peaceful, unarmed intifada in the Palestinian Territories; 46.5% rejected that
• 31.8% of respondents supported the rise of an armed intifada in the Palestinian Territories; 60.6% rejected that.
• 23.1% of respondents saw that if a Palestinian intifada takes place, a peaceful and unarmed intifada will be the best form of resistance that would serve the Palestinian cause, 16.7% said that an armed intifada would serve the Palestinian cause better, 20.8% said that both forms are useful for the Palestinian cause; 32.5% said that both forms are useless.
• 43.4% of respondents believed that there is a possibility for the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders while 45.9% said that there is no such possibility.
• 45.5% of respondents supported the creation of a Palestinian state on the entire area of the 1967 borders as a final solution for the Palestinian cause while 47% said that there is no such possibility.
• 26.4% of respondents supported the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders with some land exchange as a final solution for the Palestinian cause while 65.9% rejected.
• 25.4% of respondents supported the creation of a binational state for Arabs and Jews on historic Palestine as a final solution for the Palestinian cause while 67.3% rejected.
• 75% of respondents assessed the performance of the National Unity Government as good.
• 51% of respondents expected that if elections are conducted in the present time in the Palestinian Territories, they will be fair.
• 84.1% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 41.5% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 12.3% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
• 82.2% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 41.6% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 12.2% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
• If PLC elections are to be conducted, 43.9% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 13.1% expected the winning of Hamas.
• 84.1% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming municipality and local council elections. From among those who said they will participate, 35.5% said that they will give their votes to Fateh’s candidates, 9.5% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates and 14.7% said they will give their votes to the representative of their family or clan.
• 31.1% of respondents said that the current political, security and economic circumstances compel them to desire to emigrate.
• 43.2% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
• 34.5% of respondents said that they are pessimistic about the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
• 70.5% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.

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Background

The Palestinian Government has issued a decree deferring the municipality and local council elections which were supposed to be held in the Palestinian territories in November, 2016. The decree was issued after the ruling made by the Palestinian Supreme Court to the effect that elections are to be conducted only in the West Bank.

After the signed agreement between Fateh and Hamas to end the Palestinian split, nothing was carried out of the agreement other than the formation of a Palestinian coalition government; the other items have not been implemented.

The Results

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 53 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 13-15 October 2016. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

This poll undertakes deferring the municipality and local council elections which were supposed to be held in the Palestinian territories in November, 2016, the boycott campaign of Israeli goods and products, the possibilities of conducting presidential and legislative elections in addition to the political affiliations of Palestinian people.

The sample included 1362 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 862 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 1.8% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

The General Results:

• 35.4% of respondents supported the Palestinian Government’s decision to postpone municipality and local council elections after the ruling of the Palestinian Supreme Court to conduct them only in the West Bank; 57.6% rejected
• 23.6% of respondents supported the ruling of the Palestinian Supreme Court on October 9th, 2016 to conduct municipality and local council elections only in the West Bank; 70.4% rejected.
• 26.9% of respondents supported the ruling of the Palestinian Supreme Court on October 8th, 2016 to stop the decision of the Palestinian Council of Ministers to conduct municipality and local council elections which were scheduled to take place in November, 2016; 66.4% rejected.
• Respondents attributed the Palestinian Supreme Court’s decision to stop the decision made by the Palestinian Council of Ministers to stop elections to the following:
  • 13.4% The elections do not include Jerusalem.
  • 14.2% The courts and judiciary system in the Gaza Strip are not recognized and not legitimat
  • 33% Fear of internal conflicts as a result of the elections
  • 21.3% Elections will deepen the Palestinian split
• Respondents who rejected the Palestinian Supreme Court’s ruling to stop the Palestinian Council of Ministers’ decision to conduct municipality and local council elections to the following:
  • 47.6% The Court’s ruling abolishes one of the citizens’ rights (elections)
  • 16.7% Elections will lead to an end to the Palestinian split
  • 19.2% Elections will be an introduction to legislative and presidential elections.
• 55.1% of respondents believed that the current circumstances are suitable for conducting municipality and local council elections.
• According to the respondents’ point of view the responsible side for postponing the municipality and local council elections is
  • 27.1% The Palestinian Authority
  • 9.7% Fateh
  • 15.2% Hamas
  • 27.6% Both Fateh and Hamas
  • 4.3% Some other Palestinian factions
  • 2.9% Some independent personalities
• 41% of respondents believed that the appeals that Hamas made on Fateh’s lists of candidates in the Gaza Strip are the reason for postponing municipality and local council elections
• Had municipality and local council elections been conducted on the assigned date, respondents expected the following lists to be the winners in the West Bank.
  • 48.2% A Fateh affiliated list or lists supported by Fateh
  • 19.6% A Hamas affiliated list or lists supported by Hamas
  • 1.8% A Palestinian Left affiliated list or lists supported by them
  • 5.4% Family affiliated lists
  • 10.6% Independent lists
• Had municipality and local council elections been conducted on the assigned date, respondents expected the following lists to be the winners in the Gaza Strip:
  • 23.9% A Fateh affiliated list or lists supported by Fateh
  • 52.5% A Hamas affiliated list or lists supported by Hamas
  • 0.8% A Palestinian Left affiliated list or lists supported by them
  • 2.5% Family affiliated lists
  • 7% Independent lists
• 52.8% of respondents expected municipality and local council elections to be conducted in the near future.
• 76.2% of respondents supported submitting a proposal for a UN resolution on the Israeli settlements and the terror caused by Israeli settlers.
• 75.3% of respondents supported providing international protection for the Palestinian people who have been under occupation since 1967.
• 75% of respondents supported a call from President Mahmoud Abbas on Britain to acknowledge the historical, legal, political, material, and moral responsibilities relating to the consequences of Belfour Declaration including offering an apology to the Palestinian people for the catastrophes and injustice committed against them.
• 79% of respondents considered Britain responsible for the catastrophes that befell the Palestinian people
• 55.9% of respondents supported the French Initiative which called for holding an international conference for peace in the Middle East.
• 19.3% of respondents believed that the French Initiative to foster the possibilities of peace between Palestinians and Israelis will succeed; 63.1% believed that it will fail.
• 49.1% of respondents supported the Russian call on President Mahmoud Abbas and the Israeli Prime Minister to meet in Moscow to reactivate the peace process.
• 18.2% of respondents saw that the Palestinian Authority must commit itself to the Oslo Accord since Israel is not committed to it; 74% saw the opposite.
• 63.7% of respondents supported the security campaign that the Palestinian Security apparatuses are conducting to curb the security chaos.
• 41% of respondents said that they heard about and they supported the change of the Tawjihi (Secondary School State Exam) in the Palestinian territories; 31.5% said they have heard about it and they rejected it.
• 45.7% of respondents supported the rise of a peaceful, unarmed intifada in the Palestinian Territories; 48.7% rejected that
• 38% of respondents supported the rise of an armed intifada in the Palestinian Territories; 55.7% rejected that
• 22.5% of respondents saw that if a Palestinian intifada takes place, a peaceful and unarmed intifada will be the best form of resistance that would serve the Palestinian cause, 20.8% said that an armed intifada would serve the Palestinian cause better, 21.7% said that both forms are useful for the Palestinian cause; 28.9% said that both forms are useless.
• 46.1% of respondents supported the creation of a confederation with Jordan on the basis of two independent states with strong institutional relations.
• 33.4% of respondents believed that there is a possibility for the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders while 61.5% said that there is no such possibility.
• 36.3% of respondents supported the creation of a Palestinian state on the entire area of the 1967 borders as a final solution for the Palestinian cause while 59.4% said that there is no such possibility.
• 22% of respondents supported the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders with some land exchange as a final solution for the Palestinian cause while 72.9% rejected.
• 18% of respondents supported the creation of a binational state for Arabs and Jews on historic Palestine as a final solution for the Palestinian cause while 78.6% rejected.
• 40.7% of respondents supported dissolving the PA and merging its institutions with the PLO institutions; 49.9% rejected.
• 90.5% of respondents saw that Fateh and Hamas must speed the implementation of the reconciliation agreement.
• 43% of respondents said that they are optimistic about the implementation of the reconciliation agreement between Fatah and Hamas in the near future while 54% said they are pessimistic.
• 14% of respondents believed that the responsible party for the lack of implementation of the national reconciliation agreement is Hamas, 8.4% said it is Fatah, and 67.3% said it is some persons in Fatah and Hamas.
• 74.9% of respondents supported boycotting Israeli goods and products.
• 41.2% of respondents expected the success and endurance of the Palestinian reconciliation; 54.1% expected its failure.
• 12.8% of the respondents said that they buy Israeli products in all cases, 37.3% said they buy Palestinian products in all cases, and 46.5% said they buy according to the quality of the item regardless of its origin.
• As for the reason why some persons are not committed to the boycott campaign of Israeli products, they attributed that to the following:
  • 64.30% The lack of trust in the quality of local products
  • 63.97% The consumer culture of some persons
  • 58.89% The lack of local substitutes of Israeli products
  • 53.60% The high prices of local products
  • 68.85% The continuous availability of the Israeli products
  • 24.40% The Israeli products are their source of income
• 63.7% of respondents assessed the performance of the National Unity Government as good.
• 65.2% of respondents assessed the performance of the Palestinian Presidency as good.
• 41.5% of respondents expected that if elections are conducted in the present time in the Palestinian Territories, they will be fair.
• 82.9% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 34.3% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 13.7% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
• 82.8% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 36.5% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 15.1% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
• If PLC elections are to be conducted, 44.3% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 17.5% expected the winning of Hamas.
• 85.8% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming municipality and local council elections. From among those who said they will participate, 34% said that they will give their votes to Fateh’s candidates, 3% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates and 10% said they will give their votes to the representative of their family or clan.
• 31.4% of respondents said that the current political, security and economic circumstances compel them to desire to emigrate.
• 47.8% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
• 60.3% of respondents said that they are pessimistic about the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
• 76.7% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.
• As for political affiliation, respondents gave the following results:

  People’s Party	1.0%
  Democratic Front	%0.6
  Islamic Jihad	1.2%
  Fateh	%36.7
  Hamas	%12.8
  Fida	%0.4
  Popular Front	%2.5
  Palestinian National Initiative	%1.0
  I am an independent nationalist	%5.7
  I am an independent Islamist	%1.7
  None of the above	%35.7
  Others	%0.7

Background

The Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu rejected the French Initiative that calls for holding a peace conference in the Middle East. The French Initiative suggests principles for ending the conflict on the basis of a recognition of the 1967 borders with some land exchange between the two sides and making Jerusalem a shared capital between the two states. It also suggests a definite timetable that leads to the end of the Israeli occupation and calls for an international peace conference.

The UNESCO adopted a group of decisions relating to Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa Mosque. Among these decisions is rejecting the use of the term “Temple Mount” when referring to Al-Aqsa. UNESCO now adopts the Islamic Arabic name: Al-Masjed Al-Aqsa Al-Mubarak. UNESCO also called for restoring the status quo to its realities as they were in September 2000 when the Jordanian Ministry of Waqf had complete dominance over the site.

After the signed agreement between Fateh and Hamas to end the Palestinian split, nothing was carried out of the agreement other than the formation of a Palestinian coalition government; the other items have not been implemented.

The Results

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 52 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 3-5 May 2016. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

This poll undertakes the Palestinian public opinion in Israel’s rejection of the French Initiative, the priorities of the Palestinian Authority (PA), the boycott campaign of Israeli goods and products, the possibilities of conducting presidential and legislative elections in addition to the political affiliations of Palestinian people.

The sample included 1363 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 863 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 1.9% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

The General Results:

• 21.1% of respondents supported the return of Palestinians to negotiations under the sole sponsorship of the United States after Netanyahu’s rejection of the French Initiative which called for an international peace conference in the Middle East; 69.3% rejected.
• 56.8% of respondents supported Palestinian turn to the Security Council and the international organizations after Netanyahu’s rejection of the French Initiative which called for an international peace conference in the Middle East; 34.9% rejected.
• 7.4% of respondents considered the United States an honest broker in the Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiations.
• 44.1% of respondents thought that the decisions the Human Rights Council in Geneva voted on serve the Palestinian case.
• 61.6% of respondents saw that the PLO and the PA should follow up with the decisions of the Human Rights Council and draw international support to implement these decisions.

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