bitterlemons: There has been some fanfare surrounding the biweekly Abbas-Olmert meetings. Will they lead anywhere?

Jarbawi: First we have to understand the motive behind these meetings. Israeli PM Ehud Olmert is very weak; he has many internal problems with the Winograd report coming out and with his coalition government. He wants something that will at least delay his downfall. The only thing that might give him that is a resumption of talks with the Palestinians and a sense that there is something in the air, that there is progress.

bitterlemons: And Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas?

Jarbawi: This is the only track Abbas has. He believes in it and not only on the tactical level. He believes that this is the only way to reach an agreement with the Israelis. He wants the Americans on board, he wants the Israelis on board and he is ready to talk. Before he was prevented, first by [former President Yasser] Arafat, and then by Hamas. Now he is out of their respective shadows and he is going full steam ahead to bring about what he believes in.

bitterlemons: But one thing is having biweekly meetings, another is getting practical results. So far little has been seen...

Jarbawi: At the beginning no one thought these meetings would yield anything, but the idea of an international gathering in the autumn has breathed some life into them. The Americans--for their own reasons, the crisis in Iraq, the region, etc.--want progress on this front. They know they are not going to solve the issue but they may at least put some wind in the sails for a new administration to continue. These biweekly meetings will continue until that autumn meeting and the Americans want these meetings to focus on a general framework to give the autumn meeting something tangible: a document outlining a framework on the core issues for final status.

bitterlemons: But haven't we already got these principles? Is there a need to talk about this again?

Jarbawi: If the parties know they will not reach a final settlement, tactically they may instead aim for an interim agreement. This agreement, to make it stick, at least in front of the Palestinian people, Hamas and other factions, has to be presented within a framework. Abbas has on several occasions rejected an interim state, but the only thing that can come out of Israel right now is an interim solution. This solution must then be framed in such a way that people understand this is only one stage of many stages.

bitterlemons: It still seems we are only just back to some stage of the Oslo agreement.

Jarbawi: We are. The Israelis are not ready to talk about specifics, so this framework will be extremely general. Israel may agree to the principle of a two-state solution and that a Palestinian state should be viable and contiguous. These very general items will be mentioned. However, the Palestinians do not need this. Palestinians need specifics. When will the occupation end, when will there be a Palestinian state and what will that Palestinian state look like? These are the questions Palestinians want answered.

I don't think this framework will answer these questions. At the end we will discover that we are not moving but that Abbas and Olmert are only buying time. When we reach autumn we'll find we are only talking about things we talked about ten years ago.

bitterlemons: So there is no point to these talks except for the two leaders to buy time for themselves?

Jarbawi: No one needs generalizations about how things may one day look with no timeframe and no details. Olmert knows this and Abbas knows this. So, yes, both are trying to buy time. But Abbas has the problem of Hamas and Gaza. Either he talks to Hamas or he continues with this track. He has refused to talk to Hamas and so he wants something to show his people from this track. If he reaches autumn without any result he will be in deep trouble.

bitterlemons: But it sounds as if in your assessment nothing tangible will come from these talks. What option will he then be left with?

Jarbawi: I think Abbas hopes that by autumn he will have something tangible. He hopes he will have a general framework and, on the ground, an interim solution that will not be called an interim solution, a kind of state within the wall, with an easing of checkpoints and a better economy. This would give him something tangible with which he may call early elections. He will have to convince Palestinians that this "interim solution" comes in a framework that will lead to full independence, a complete end to the occupation and the creation of a Palestinian state. He can then call for a referendum and with a referendum he will call early elections.

If he doesn't have anything in hand by autumn, he will find himself in a vacuum. He will have nothing from the Israelis or Americans and he will have refused to talk to Hamas for months. He may then find the only solution is to quit.

bitterlemons: What about talking to Hamas?

Jarbawi: Until the autumn meeting I think he will focus only on talking to Olmert and the Americans. For the first time, Abbas is having things his way. When he was prime minister under Arafat he could not pursue this track freely. When he became president and Hamas won elections he could not either. Now he has things his way. He has full relations with the Americans and Israel. He wants to appease both sides in order to get something out of them. These have always been his tactics and I think he deserves his chance.

I don't believe he will get anything more than what was offered Arafat in 2000. Then, he, along with Arafat, refused that offer. I think he will get less than that now, if anything. So the question is, is he in such a squeeze that he will now accept less? I think he wants to but let's wait until autumn to see what he can get from the Israelis. I think what he and Olmert are discussing is essentially an interim solution.

bitterlemons: So these meetings are very important to Abbas?

Jarbawi: Extremely important. He is a true believer in negotiations as the only means to obtain results. Let us see where this leads. I think it will not lead to anything acceptable to Palestinians, but this is his chance.

Ali Jarbawi is a professor of political science at Birzeit University.