* Decline in Fatah and Hamas popularity; however, Fatah enjoys higher popularity with 32.5% compared with 17.8% for Hamas.

* Palestinian leaders also face similar trend: President Abu Mazen enjoys support from 11.7% while Ismaeel Hanieh, the deposed PM, is supported by 13.3%.

* Palestinians are frustrated from the negotiations; a majority of Palestinians supports halt of negotiations if Israeli settlement activities continue; rise in ratio of those who support the resistance.

* Performance of Fayyad’s government receives lesser support; the majority of those who support Fayyad are from Fatah

The results of the public opinion poll conducted by Jerusalem Media and Communications Center (JMCC) during the period 8-13 April, 2008, showed general feeling of frustration among the Palestinians with regards to the future of the Palestinian cause and the peace process in light of the ongoing Israeli aggressions and the split between Gaza Strip and the West Bank, which also impacted the level of popular confidence in the political parties and figures in the Palestinian Occupied Territories.

Parties and leaders: a confidence crisis

The poll with a random sample of 1,199 persons showed significant retreat in the level of confidence in the political figures in general while those who don’t trust any figure moved from (27.4%) in November 2007 to as high as (36.4%) this month, April. The same trend applies to those who don’t trust any political factions as the ratio moved from (29.9%) last November to (33.6%) this April. Level of trust in political leaders went down as level of support to President Abbas went down from (18.3%) last November to (11.7%) this month. Ratio of support to the deposed PM Ismaeel Hanieh also went down from (16.3%) in November 2007 to reach (13.3%) this April. The same applies to PLC member Marwan Barghouthi who is still inside Israeli jails as ratio of support moved down from (14.3%) to (12.8%) this month.

With regards to trust in the political parties, support to Fatah Movement decreased from (40%) in November 2007 to (32.5%) this April while Hamas Movement’s popularity went down from (19.7%) to (17.8%) this month.

The negotiations: frustration and diminishing flexibility

The poll conducted by JMCC coincided with several aggressions against the citizens in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, mainly “the Gaza Holocaust” at the end of February. Number of martyrs from that date until the date of these results reached around 200. the poll also came at a time when President Mahmoud Abbas issued an implicit threat in his speech at the recent Arab Summit in Damascus that he would halt the negotiations with Israel if the settlement activities continue, especially the negotiations that started after Annapolis Conference.

At the level of the negotiations, the results showed decline in public support to the negotiations from (67.9%) last November to (61.2%) this April while there was a slight difference between those who support the continuation of the negotiations launched by Annapolis Conference (30.8%) and those who oppose these negotiations (25.7%); moreover, a majority (41%) believes there is no difference between continuation of negotiations and halt of negotiations.

With regards to the implicit threat by President Abu Mazen on halt of the negotiations in case Israeli settlement activities continue, a majority of the Palestinians supports such a step with a small minority (13.3%) that agrees to continue negotiations along with settlement activities. However, the majority (65.8%) thinks that President Abu Mazen would not execute this threat to halt negotiations.

A similar trend was also noted at the level of political positions: ratio of Palestinians who support the two state solution retreated from (53%) last November to (47.1%) this April. Palestinians who express optimism regarding a peaceful settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict decreased from a ratio of (44.9%) in March 2007 to (36.2%) this month. Position of Palestinians on the available options in case the negotiations fail were divided between three main options: the higher ratio (27.4%) supported the start of a third Intifada; a ratio of (27%) said the alternative is to dissolve the PNA while (12.9%) chose the step of unilateral declaration of independence.

Resistance is the best option

Ratio of Palestinians who support resistance operations against Israeli targets in general rose from (43.1%) in September 2006 to (49.5%) this April. It should be noted that the majority of those who support this option (58.1%) come from Gaza Strip compared with (24.5%) from the West Bank.

Palestinians who support bombing operations against Israeli civilians rose also from (44.8%) in June 2006 to (48%) in September 2006 and to (50.7%) this April. It should be noted that the majority of those who support these operations (65.1%) come from Gaza Strip compared with (42.3%) from the West Bank.

On the issue of the usefulness of launching the locally made rockets, the Palestinian public is divided on this matter: a ratio of (39.3%) says launching these rockets is useful to the Palestinian national interests while (35.7%) says they are harmful. A ratio of (22.5%) said these rockets make no difference. It should be noted that the majority of those who support firing rockets (47.4%) come from Gaza Strip compared with (34.6%) from the West Bank.

Internal reconciliation: general despair

Ratio of those who expect return to a national unity government through dialogue between Fatah and Hamas retreated from (50%) in November 2007 to (42.2%) this month. On the other hand, ratio of those who don’t expect such a scenario rose from (44.8%) to (51.5%) this April. Despite the majority support to the Yemeni Initiative towards Palestinian internal reconciliation, still a majority (57.1%) thinks that this initiative wont make any difference in the Palestinian internal conditions.

Government performance: notable decline

Level of satisfaction with the manner President Abu Mazen is performing his job as President of the PNA decreased from (50.3%) in November 2007 to (38.9%) this April.

A slight decline was noted in the level of satisfaction with the performance of Salam Fayyad’s government in the basic fields, such as fighting corruption, security and economy. Palestinians who believe that the internal security has improved went down from (36.4%) in November 2007 to (34.9%) this April.

Ratio of Palestinians who believe that ratio of corruption increased under the government of Fayyad rose from (23%) in November 2007 to (31.9%) this April. The same applies to the economic conditions as the ratio of those who believe that the economic conditions have improved went down from (26.1%) in November 2007 to (23.7%) this month.

Based on the above mentioned results and when asking the people to compare between the performance of Fayyad’s government in the West Bank and the performance of Hanieh’s government in Gaza, level of those who believe that the performance of Fayyad’s government is better went down from (46.5%) in August 2007 to (36%) this April while those who believe that the government of Fayyad is worse than the government of Hanieh increased from (24.4%) to (29.1%) for the same period.

It is worth noting that despite retreat in performance of Fayyad’s government in the eyes of the respondents, it was found out that a high ratio (71%) from Fatah members in the sample said the performance of Fayyad’s government is good and better than the performance of Hanieh’s government.

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