* THE MAJORITY SUPPORTS HOLDING PRESIDENTIAL AND LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS AT THE SAME TIME IN JANUARY 2010

* OSLO ACCORD HARMED THE PALESTINIAN NATIONAL INTERESTS MORE THAN IT SERVED THEM

* RISE IN LEVEL OF SUPPORT TO THE IDEA OF A BI-NATIONAL STATE

* THE TRUCE BETWEEN HAMAS AND ISRAEL SERVES THE ISRAELI INTERESTS

* RATIO OF SATISFACTION WITH PERFORMANCE OF FAYYAD’S GOVERNMENT ON THE RISE; POPULARITY OF PALESTINIAN PARTIES AND FIGURES REMAINED UNCHANGED

* A MAJORITY SHOWS INDIFFERENCE TOWARDS THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND CANDIDATES

The dialogue and the parties

The results of the public opinion poll conducted by Jerusalem Media and Communications Center (JMCC) during the period 2-6 October, 2008 showed that the majority of the respondents (51.4%) support holding simultaneous presidential and legislative elections at the end of the PLC term in January 2010 while a ratio of (36.5%) support holding presidential elections at the end of President Abbas’ term in January 2009.

Despite the positive climate in which the Palestinian national dialogue is taking place in Cairo, the Palestinians are divided on their expectations regarding the results of the dialogue as a ratio of (47.7%) expects the parties to agree on the formation of a national unity government while a ratio of (45.7%) says agreement on a national unity government is unlikely.

The poll with a random sample of 1,194 persons in the West Bank and Gaza Strip showed constant levels of popularity of the basic Palestinian factions and political figures. When asked about the Palestinian figure they will vote for in case presidential elections, a ratio of (24.7%) said they would vote for President Mahmoud Abbas while (19.5%) said they will vote for Marwan al-Barghouthi and a ratio of (17.3%) said they would vote for Ismail Hanieh.

When asked to choose between Mahmoud Abbas and Ismail Hanieh as the sole presidential candidates in case elections are held, a ratio of (43.3%) said they would vote for President Abbas while a ratio of (23.5%) said they would vote for Ismail Hanieh and a ratio of (29.6%) said they will not give their vote to anyone.

With regards to the political factions, especially Fatah and Hamas, results showed that Fatah Movement still maintains the lead with a ratio of (30.5%) while (16.4%) said they trust Hamas.

Negotiations and the peace process

The Jerusalem Media and Communication Center (JMCC) conducted the current public opinion poll on the 15th anniversary of signing the Oslo Accord. Results have shown that a majority of the respondents (41%) believes that Oslo Accord harmed the Palestinian national interests more than it served them while (20.4%) said Oslo Accord served the Palestinian national interests and a ratio of (34.3%) said Oslo Accord made no difference.

Regarding the positions on the final-status issues, one can note a rise in the level of support to the idea of a bi-national state from (23.4%) in November 2007 to (23.5%) in April 2008 and to (28.6%) in the current poll – October 2008.

On the position of the Palestinian refugees cause, the ratio remained constant at (65.2%) who support the return of all refugees to their original homeland.

The governments of Fayyad and Hanieh

The JMCC Poll made a comparison between the performance of the governments of Fayyad and Hanieh in terms of reform, the economic conditions, and security. The results showed that the government of Fayyad has a notable lead in these areas.

The results show that there is improvement in satisfaction level towards the performance of Fayyad’s government; the ratio of those who believe that Fayyad’s government pushed forward reforms rose from (32.2%) last April to (39.4%) this month. In the West Bank, a ratio of (40.5%) said Fayyad’s government pushed forward the reform process while (21.1%) opposed this belief.

On feelings of personal security and general security conditions, the ratio of those who believe that the security conditions improved during Fayyad’s government increased from (29.6%) last April to (37.7%) this month. In the West Bank, a ratio of (40.1%) said the security conditions improved while (23.9%) said the security conditions deteriorated and a ratio of (33.2%) said the situation has not witnessed any change.

At the economic level, Fayyad’s government achieved significant improvement in the eyes of the general public; a ratio of (36.3%) said the economic conditions under Fayyad’s government improved compared with a ratio of (23.7%) who said the same last April. On the other hand, a ratio of (31.3%) said the economic conditions deteriorated compared with (49.9%) who said the same last April.

When asked if the economic conditions improved or deteriorated under Hanieh’s government, a ratio of (8.6%) only said the economic conditions in Gaza Strip improved while the majority (75.9%) in Gaza Strip said the economic conditions under Hanieh’s government deteriorated.

On the security performance, a majority (44.1%) in Gaza Strip said the security conditions under Hanieh’s government improved while a ratio of (39.8%) said the security conditions deteriorated, with a ratio of (15.5%) who said the security conditions witnessed no change.

It is worth mentioning that Fayyad’s government enjoyed a high ratio of support when the interviewers in the Gaza strip were asked about its performance. This ratio is higher than the ratio of support that Hanieh`s government received in the West Bank. For instance, a ratio of (37.7%) of the interviewers in the Gaza strip said that Fayyad’s government has contributed to pushing forward the process of reform while a ratio of (26.8 %) said the opposite. The same situation applies to the issue of security for a ratio of (33.6%) of the interviewers in the Gaza strip said that security and safety have improved during the tenure of Fayyad’s government while a ratio (31.8%) said the opposite.

On the other hand, a ratio of (23.5%) of the interviewers in the west Bank said that security and safety have improved during the tenure of Hanieh`s government while a ratio of (43.%) viewed these issues as deteriorating. When answering the question about the extent Hanieh`s government has contributed to pushing reforms forwards, a ration of (17.5%) from the West Bank said it did so as oppose to a ratio of (40.6%) from the west Bank saying that Hanieh`s government has contributed to pushing the reforms backward.

The truce

The results of the poll showed that a majority of the Palestinians (57.5%) believe that the truce reached between Hamas and Israel around three months ago serves the Israeli interests more than the Palestinian interests, in particular in Gaza Strip. A ratio of (56.2%) in the West Bank and a majority (59.5%) in Gaza Strip said the truce serves the Israeli interests more than the Palestinian interests while (31.2%) in the West Bank and (33.4%) in Gaza Strip said the truce serves the Palestinian people interests more than the Israeli interests.

The United States Presidential Elections

On the issue of the upcoming US Presidential Elections, a ratio of (37.3%) prefer to see Barack Obama win the elections while a ratio of (15.3%) prefer to see McCain win the elections, but the majority (47.4%) said they don’t prefer any candidate or they don’t have a specific position on this issue.

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