As predictions for the duration of the war in Iraq are changing from weeks to months, it is important to examine what this would mean to us in the Palestinian Territories, to the Iraqi people and to the role of international partners and donor agencies.

Clearly, a drawn-out war in Iraq would have political, human and economic repercussions for us here in the Palestinian Territories. Most important at this point is the fact that the new Palestinian Prime Minister would have to devote most of his time on internal matters and shun away, at least for now, from diplomatic maneuvers with the US and Israel for a final comprehensive settlement. The implication of this is that the Palestinian NGOs, Churches and their Church Related Organizations should be alert to ensuring that the intended internal changes and reforms in the Palestinian Authority, in the coming few months, would respond also to the needs of the poor, the marginalized and those without a political voice or faction platform.

But the success of the National Authority in bringing about the desired internal changes is dependent, to a great extent, on Israeli withdrawal from towns and territories that were reoccupied by the Israeli army since September 2000. If in the coming four to six months the Israeli army does not withdraw and also desist from the violent and deadly incursions, curfews and closures that it is carrying out on daily basis in the Palestinian areas, then we are likely to continue to suffer on the humanitarian level at the same level that we are experiencing at present. But it could also get worse. There is fear that the economic recessional implications of a long Iraq war would definitely worsen the economic prospects for the already devastated Palestinian economy. The conclusion then is that if with the institutionalization of the office of the Prime Minister in the National Authority there are no concrete Israeli steps to lower the intensity of the ongoing conflict with the Palestinians, then given the war in Iraq and its negative economic repercussions, the humanitarian situation of the Palestinians could indeed get worse. The humanitarian situation in the Palestinian Territories should accordingly continue to occupy a high priority consideration by all of our partners, donor agencies and others for at least the coming year, if not more.

A long war in Iraq may not produce the thousands of refugees that we all anticipated would be flooding the Ruweishdeh and Hall camps, among others, on the Jordanian, Syrian and other borders. But a long war in Iraq would produce a humanitarian crisis of a first order in that country, as the MECC updates on Iraq indicate as well as stories coming out of Iraq and that we all see, unfortunately, on our TV screens. With a long-drawn war, it is likely that many governments would provide financial aid for humanitarian purposes in war-torn Iraq. This would mean that some of our partners would have access to some of these funds. Our view from Palestine is that all such available aid should go to the Iraqi people and plans to be devised so as those who need this aid receive it. Without appearing to be partial, the partnership that many of you have with the MECC should be bolstered in the coming months for this purpose.

For us, in the Department of Service to Palestinian Refugees, we are continuing with our preparations for the upcoming Round Table meeting planned for May 5-6-7 in Amman, Jordan with our partners. I do hope that as many of our partners can attend this meeting in order to discuss not simply the DSPR situation but what kind of partnership work is expected in this region for the next couple of years.

The challenges that are posed by a long-drawn war in Iraq and the continuing bleak situation in the Palestinian Territories mean that attention now would be focused on both of these people to alleviate and help with their difficult predicament. Humanitarian aid has never been a purpose for itself and will never be. As a Palestinian, it pains me to see people growing dependent on aid. Empowerment is liberation from dependency on foreign aid and pride is when a person earns his/her living with the sweat of his/her own brow. But war is unjust as it robs also the dignity of people and their peace of mind. Humanitarian aid, especially when it comes from Churches and Church Related Organizations, should be coupled with reaching out to the people who suffer and to those who make them suffer, irrespective of who they are. This is most important, as some are likely to view this war in Iraq as of religious nature while we all know that the purpose is geo-political and economic in nature.

There is hurt on many sides because of this war and this hurt is likely to continue in the coming months. Beside the emotional and gut reaction of many people to the scenes of devastation, injured, imprisoned and killed, there is the questioning especially by the young in Palestine of where all this would lead us, our country and our region? Most likely, and this is a pessimistic outlook, if the war in Iraq continues for a rather long time and if the American Administration gets entangled in long and complicated political intrigues in Iraq, then this would leave its negative impact also on the political prospects for resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict within the next couple of years.

We pray and hope for peace in our country, in Iraq and in our region and world.