Dr. Said:

• President Obama’s June visit not a source of hope to a majority of Palestinians.
• Actions, not words, might sway Palestinian public opinion.

The Arab World for Research and Development (AWRAD) carried out an opinion poll of 1,200 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The sample selection and distribution followed a stratified probability sampling methodology with proportional representation of all socio-economic variables. Data collection took place during 12-14 June, 2009.

1. A majority is interested in President Obama's visit: Two-thirds of the respondents stated that they followed the news of President Obama’s visit to the region. About one third followed the visit in full, and another third followed it partially. In contrast, 32 percent did not follow the visit at all. Further, a majority heard or read the speech delivered by President Obama in Cairo on the 4th of June. Approximately, 20 percent of respondents heard or read the speech in full, and 42 percent in part. In contrast, 38 percent did not hear or read the speech.

2. According to Dr. Nader Said, President of AWRAD, President Obama's positions are believed to be more progressive than those of President Bush, yet a majority of respondents see that President Obama’s positions represent “no change” or a “regression” from previous American positions on the issue of Palestinian statehood. In contrast, about 31 percent see that his positions represent an “improvement” on American policy toward the region. Compared with the views on the visit by his predecessor, President Bush, in May 2008, Palestinians seem to be more optimistic by President Obama's positions than those of President Bush. The following is a comparative table of the views of the two presidents and their visits:

Do you think that President ----- positions on the Palestinian issue represent …? (%)

No change, his positions are similar to previous American policy
Bush's(May 2008) 66.1
Obama's(June 2009)48.6
Difference 17.5
A regression in American policy on the Palestinian question
Bush's(May 2008) 20.6
Obama's(June 2009)7.9
Difference 12.7
An improvement on American policy on the Palestinian question
Bush's(May 2008) 7.1
Obama's(June 2009)30.9
Difference 23.8
Don’t Know/No opinion
Bush's(May 2008) 6.2
Obama's(June 2009)12.6
Difference 6.4

3.Dr. Said, however, cautions that while a larger percentage of Palestinians is more optimistic about President Obama’s visit when compared to President Bush’s, the majority are still doubtful that the Obama visit to the region will create any positive changes in their lives. In contrast, a majority believes otherwise. For example:

• About 65 percent believe that President Obama’s visit will lead to a tightening of the closure on Gaza. Only 23 percent disagree with this statement.
• Another 62 percent believe that President Obama’s visit will lead to the reinforcement of the Israeli occupation in the West Bank. Only 25 percent believe otherwise.
• In regards to settlements, only 14 percent strongly believe that his visit will lead to a halt in Israeli settlement activities, and 23 percent believe that his visit might lead to that “to some extent.” In contrast, 54 percent believe that President Obama’s visit will not lead to a halt in settlement activities.
• In addition, only one-fourth of the respondents believe that the visit will not reinforce internal fighting between Palestinian factions. The majority (61 percent) believe strongly or to some extent that his visit will lead to that.
• While a majority believes that his visit will energize the negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis, another majority declares that the Obama visit does not give them hope that a Palestinian state will be established. In comparison, one fifth confirms that his visit gives them hope and 28 percent say that it gives them hope “to some extent.”

4.Dr. Said adds that Palestinians are not decisive about how they view the seriousness of President Obama and his desire to establish a Palestinian state. About 43 percent say that he is not serious, 35 percent say that he is serious “to some extent” and only 14 percent confirm that he is serious.

5.President Obama’s call for “a new beginning between the US and Muslims” is also causing division 39 percent of respondents believe that he is not serious about his call for a new beginning, while 37 percent believe that he is serious “to some extent” and only 16 percent confirm his seriousness in this regard.

6.His proposition for a Jerusalem that is “a secure and lasting home for Jews, Muslims and Christians” did not receive majority support. About 43 percent of the respondents disagreed with his proposition, and 17 percent somewhat disagreed.” In contrast, 20 percent “somewhat greed” and 17 percent “agreed.”

7.In addition, a majority disagreed with President Obama’s statement: “resistance through violence and killing is wrong and it does not succeed. …Violence is a dead end…That's not how moral authority is claimed, that's how it is surrendered.” The results of the poll show that about 42 percent of respondents disagreed with his statement and 19 percent disagreed to some extent. In contrast, 22 percent agreed “to some extent” and 13 percent agreed.

8.Dr. Said also noted that there is a difference between the responses from West Bank and Gaza, where Gaza respondents are generally more in disagreement with President Obama’s proposals. For example:

• About 65 percent of Gazans disagree with his proposals on Jerusalem, compared with 56 percent among West Bank respondents.
• Over 71 percent of Gazans disagree with his statement on the use of violence and peaceful resistance, compared with 55 percent among West Bank respondents.

The gap, according to Dr. Said, is explained by the prolonged closure of Gaza, the deteriorating living conditions, and mostly to the lack of prospects for change. It is interesting to note that Gazans do not feel that President Obama’s visit could lead to the worsening of the situation. But the data also shows that while they are more attentive in regards to his visit, they are generally less optimistic than their counterparts in the West Bank about the future. For example:

• About 44 percent of Gazans said they followed the news on President Obama’s visit in full, while only 26 percent of West Bank respondents said the same.
• About 61 percent of Gazans believe that President Obama’s positions represent “no change from previous American governments,” compared with 41 percent believing the same way in the West Bank.

According to Dr. Said, this data reflects the mixed feelings about President Obama’s visit, his speech and the overall American historical positions in the region. They also reflect the continuing disillusionment with the peace process following the Oslo Accord (1993), and the many speeches that were delivered in its aftermath promising change. It seems that Palestinians are less enthusiastic about the Obama presidency than experts originally believed. In sum, actions and not words are bound to change the prevailing positions, Dr. Said.

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