1. Disillusionment with the peace process, but commitment to peace continues.

In spite of their disillusionment with the peace process that started after the Oslo Accord, the majority of Palestinians still believe that negotiations are the best method to end the occupation. They, however, do not believe that the terms of the exiting process are satisfactory.

The results of the AWRAD poll reveal that a majority disagree with the peace process as they have experienced it.

• About 68 percent agree (or somewhat agree) that the negotiations have failed and that the peace process is at a deadlock. Only 19 percent disagree and 10 percent somewhat disagree.
• After 18 years of negotiations, a majority felt that Palestinians are now farther from achieving their goal of establishing a Palestinian state. One-fifth said that they do not know. Only 27 percent felt that Palestinians are closer to establishing a state.
• Events during last year made Palestinians even less hopeful, where two- third of the respondents said that they are less hopeful in the peace process now than one year ago. In contrast, 28 percent said that they are more hopeful.

These views reflect the reality on the ground, but also the lack of trust in the parties involved.

• The most trusted party in its commitment to the peace process is the Palestinian National Authority (PA)/Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), where two-thirds of the respondents said that it is serious about its commitment to ending the occupation and establishing a Palestinian state. In contrast, 28 percent said that the PA/PLO is not committed.
• The most surprising result is the one related to how many Palestinians view the commitment of Hamas. As much as 64 percent said that Hamas is not committed to ending the occupation and establishing a state, while 45 percent said that it is committed.
• As much as 94 percent said that Israel is not committed, and 87 percent said that the U.S. is not committed. As much as 74 percent said that the UN is not committed and about 68 percent said that neither the EU nor the Arab countries are committed.

The credibility of the American government as a mediator is questioned.

One-quarter of the respondents believe that the American government is a neutral party in the negotiations. Two-thirds disagree.
• About 83 percent of the respondents have no faith that the American government will ever assist the Palestinians to end occupation and build their state. Only 13 percent believe it will.
• About 21 percent believe the Obama administration is capable of helping the Palestinians end the occupation. About 72 percent do not believe that the Obama administration is capable of helping the Palestinians.

In addition, the credibility of actions of the Israeli government is questioned by the Palestinians.

• As much as 61 percent oppose going back to the negotiations as a result of the Israeli Prime Minister’s declaration of a 10-months freeze on new settlement building. About 31 percent supported going back to the negotiations under the new declaration.
• In addition, three-quarters of the respondents believe that the Israeli government is not serious about implementing the declared freeze on settlement building.
• Furthermore, 81 percent believe that Israel is not making any serious efforts to stop settlement building.
• Overall, 76 percent oppose the U.S. call to go back to the negotiations without a freeze on settlement building.

These views did not prevent the majority of Palestinians to believe that negotiations continue to be the best approach.

• About 54 percent of the respondents agree that negotiations are still the best method to end the occupation regardless of the current deadlock, while 41 percent had given up on this method.
• But what kind of negotiations? About 66 percent believe that negotiations as they were undertaken in the past will be ineffective. One-third, however, believe that to continue them as they are will be effective or somewhat effective.
• In contrast, about 59 percent believe that negotiations under new and more balanced terms such as an international conference will be effective. About 36 percent disagree.
• About 46 percent believe that resorting to armed attacks will be effective, while 50 percent believe that armed attacks will be ineffective.
• If Palestinians were to choose one of the most effective method, they would choose negotiations under new terms (23 percent), followed by a mix of negotiations and popular uprising (20 percent), a mix of negotiations and armed attacks (18 percent), armed attacks (17 percent), continue the negotiations without conditions (14 percent) and popular uprising (8 percent).
• Overall, negotiations and non-violent approaches are believed to be more effective by a majority of Palestinians.

2. The dismantlement of the PA is not a popular choice

The majority of Palestinians oppose any scenario that involves the dismantlement of the PA.

• As much as 72 percent oppose the dismantlement of the PA to allow for any international takeover of responsibility in the West Bank and Gaza until a state is established. About 23 percent support such a scenario.
• About 61 percent oppose the dismantlement of the PA to allow for the restoration of the resistance movement. One-third supports such a scenario.
• Only 17 percent support a confederation between West Bank and Jordan and between Gaza and Egypt. In the West support for a confederation reaches 23 percent. In general, as much as 75 percent oppose such a scenario.

3. A majority would like to see Hamas concede power to the PA

It is interesting to find a majority of Palestinians would like to see a Hamas concession of power to the PA.

• A majority of 52 percent support the idea that Hamas should concede its authority in Gaza to the PA. In contrast, 40 percent oppose this idea.
• In contrast, only 17 percent would like to see a concession of authority by the PA to Hamas. Three-quarters of the respondents oppose that the PA concede its authority to Hamas.

This preferable evaluation of the PA is illustrated in many other questions especially when evaluating the performance of the Fayyad and the Haniyeh governments.

• About 64 percent evaluate the performance of the Fayyad government positively (good or medium), while 46 percent evaluate the performance of the Haniyeh government positively.
• About 38 percent would prefer to live under the Fayyad government, while 18 percent would prefer to live under the Haniyeh government. As much as 37 percent would not choose any of the governments (prefer a unity government or other forms).
• It is interesting to find out that a higher percentage of Gaza respondents would rather live under a Fayyad government (41 percent) compared with West bank respondents (37 percent).
• However, only 14 percent of West Bank respondents would prefer to live under a Haniyeh government as compared with 25 percent among Gazans.

These evaluations are related to an overall assessment of various aspects on living conditions.

• A higher percentage of Gazans (49 percent) feel that the freedom of press and speech in their region is weak compared with 37 percent in the West Bank.
• A higher percentage of Gazans (56 percent) feel that the there is abuse of human rights compared with 50 percent in the West Bank.
• A higher percentage of Gazans (49 percent) feel that the respect for personal freedoms in their region is weak compared with 41 percent in the West Bank.
• A higher percentage of Gazans (32 percent) feel that corruption among officials in their region is widespread compared with 26 percent in the West Bank.
• A higher percentage of Gazans (53 percent) feel that the equality in service delivery in their region is weak compared with 46 percent in the West Bank.

It is also interesting to find that a vast majority of Palestinians would like to see a continuation of PA support to Gaza.

As much as 79 percent of the respondents believe that the Fayyad government should continue to support salaries and other social services in Gaza even if Gaza continues to be under the control of Hamas. Only 10 percent oppose such a premise.

4. Shared responsibility for lack of reconciliation; Hamas is more blamed

A majority believes that both factions (Hamas and Fateh) are to blame for delaying the elections and for stalling the reconciliation agreement. However, more respondents feel that Hamas is more to blame than Fateh.

• About 58 percent say that Fateh and Hamas are blamed equally for the delay in carrying out the elections. About 26 percent blame Hamas only and 10 percent blame Fateh only.
• As to the delay in signing the reconciliation agreement proposed by Egypt, 52 percent blame both factions. About 30 percent blame only Hamas and 12 percent blame only Fateh.

5. While majority supports a continuation of an Abbas presidency, a majority oppose an appointment of Duwaik

Indicators show that elections will not take place in their due date (January 24, 2010). Under this scenario a constitutional vacuum will take place.

• Mr. Aziz Duwiak of Hamas, who is the head of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC), announced that he is ready to step in as a president if President Abbas steps down. His announcement received 29 percent support as it is the constitutional thing to do. In contrast, 51 percent opposed his presidency as he will not be able to govern. As much as 20 percent said that they do not know.
• In general, 60 percent believe that the election will not take place on its due date, while only 22 percent still believe that it would.

6. Haniyeh, Fayyad, Mustafa Barghouti and Dahlan are most popular in case Abbas and Marwan decide not to run

If Abbas and Marwan Barghouti decided not run for a presidential election, the space will be open for a number of potential leaders. This data, however, must be viewed carefully as other candidates might also become popular if they decided to run or if their factions declare their support for them.

• From among a list of 10 candidates from Fateh, Hamas and independents Haniyeh, Fayyad and Mustafa Barghouthi come on top (with about 14 percent each). They are followed by Mohamad Dahlan (10 percent).
• This scenario will be different if one candidate runs on behalf of the PLO and its allies and one candidate from the Islamic movement (Hamas).

7. Fateh leads the pack and Hamas is competitive

The results of the election for the PLC will depend on how conditions evolve by the time of the elections. Today, however, we could make the following predictions.

• If only Fateh and Hamas ran, Fateh would receive 68 percent and Hamas 32 percent of the vote.
• If the following three lists ran, Fateh would receive 54 percent, Hamas 29 percent, and a list of independents led by Fayyad 17 percent.
• If the following three lists ran, Fateh would receive 53 percent, Hamas (28 percent) and a list of independents led by Mustafa Barghouthi (19 percent).
• If the following three lists ran, Fateh would receive (52 percent), Hamas 28 percent, and a list of independents led by Fayyad and Mustafa Barghouti 20 percent.
• In an open election with all potential lists, Fateh receives 55 percent, Hamas 27 percent, and 18 percent will go to the rest of the lists.

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