Background

The Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) submitted a bid to the United Nations (UN) requesting full membership and a recognition of the State of Palestine within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital. President Mahmoud Abbas gave a speech at the UN and submitted the membership application. The application was forwarded to the Security Council to be studied and voted on. The USA threatened to use the Vito if such petition is presented to the Security Council.

An agreement has been signed between Israel and Hamas in Cairo by which Gilad Shalit will be released in return for that Israel will release 1027 Palestinian prisoners, some from among them are sentenced to long term imprisonment.

The division between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip persists and each side adheres to its precepts without any signs for an imminent end of this division.

The Results

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 43 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 13-15 October 2011. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no 43 undertakes Palestinian public opinion in the emerging political realities on the Palestinian scene, the PLO’s bid for a full membership in the UN and the recognition of the State of Palestine within the 1967 borders and their ensuing consequences. The poll also undertakes the prisoners exchange deal between Israel and Hamas, the possibility of conducting presidential, legislative and local council and municipality elections, in addition to the political affiliations of Palestinian people.

The sample included 1361 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 861 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 2.4% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

The General Results:

• 77.7% of respondents believed that submitting a bid to the UN by the PLO and the Palestinian Authority (PA) to recognize the State of Palestine was a positive move that serves the interest of the Palestinian people; 19.1% believed the opposite.
• 73% of respondents believed that the PLO and the PA carried out a successful diplomatic campaign when they submitted the bid at the UN for the recognition of the State of Palestine
• 56.2% of respondents believed that submitting a bid to the UN by the PLO and the PA to recognize the State of Palestine will affect the Palestinian cause positively; 17.6% believed that the effect will be negative.
• 45.4% of respondents believed that the voting in the Security Council will be in favor of the recognition of the State of Palestine.
• 54.7% of respondents believed that the PLO and PA are capable of gaining the support of 9 members of the Security Council to recognize the State of Palestine.
• 67.1% of respondents believed that the United States will use the Vito at the Security Council against the recognition of the State of Palestine.
• 82.6% of respondents considered the use of the Vito by the United States at the Security Council against the recognition of the State of Palestine as an American encouragement of the Israeli policy in the Palestinian Territories.
• 24.6% of respondents believed that the USA is pursuing every possible path that is within its reach to salvage the peace process.
• 29.8% of respondents believed that establishing the Palestinian State cannot be achieved except through negotiations; 64.4% believed the opposite.
• 79.4% of respondents believed that there is no use in conducting negotiations without indicating a specific frame of reference and without freezing settlement activities.
• 13.4% of respondents considered the United States an impartial broker in the peace process between the PA and Israel.
• 34.2% of respondents considered the European Union an impartial broker in the peace process between the PA and Israel.
• 27.5% of respondents considered the International Quartet an impartial broker in the peace process between the PA and Israel.
• If the Palestinian State is recognized in the UN, 42.5% of respondents said that the recognition will affect the negotiations on the refugee question positively; 29.8% said that recognition will affect negotiations on refugees negatively.
• If the Palestinian State is recognized in the UN, 40.6% of respondents said that the recognition will affect the negotiations on Jerusalem positively; 32.5% said that recognition will affect negotiations on Jerusalem negatively.
• If the Palestinian State is recognized in the UN, 40.3% of respondents said that the recognition will affect the negotiations on the borders question positively; 32.2% said that recognition will affect negotiations on borders negatively.
• 77.7% of respondents rejected holding talks between the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the Israeli Government in case Israel continues building settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem; 18.4% supported.
• 22.7% of respondents believed that it is possible to reach a lasting settlement for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict under the current circumstances.
• 68.6% of respondents saw that the USA and the European countries have a duplicity of standards when they support the demands of the popular revolutions in the Arab countries and do not support similar Palestinian demands.
• 57.2% of respondents expected the eruption of a third Intifada in the Palestinian Territories.
• 36% of respondents supported the rise of an armed intifada; 57.6% rejected
• 58.3% of respondents supported the rise of a nonviolent and unarmed popular resistance; 35.9% rejected
• 77.3% of respondents believed that the surrounding Arab and international circumstances necessitate concluding a national reconciliation agreement between Fateh and Hamas.
• 70.6% of respondents believed that it is possible to reach a national reconciliation agreement between Fateh and Hamas in the near future.
• 40.3% of respondents believed that signing a national reconciliation agreement will lead to speeding up the peace process; 24.5% believed that signing of a reconciliation agreement will entangle and stop the peace process.
• 86.1% from among respondents said that they are content with the agreement signed between Israel and Hamas in Cairo by which Gilad Shalit will be released in return for releasing 1027 Palestinian prisoners; some from among them are sentenced to long term imprisonment
• 67.7% from among respondents said that the prisoner-exchange deal between Israel and Hamas will increase the support of Hamas among the Palestinians.
• 63.5% from among respondents said that the prisoner-exchange deal between Israel and Hamas will lead to the speeding up of the national reconciliation process.
• 49.2% from among respondents said that Israel agreed to sign a deal of prisoners exchange at this particular time to curb the rising internal protests and strikes; 16.8% said that Israel agreed to the deal because of the realities that dominate the Arab World after the Arab Springs; 23.7% said it is because the PLO submitted a bid to UN asking for a full recognition of the Palestinian State.
• 15.3% from among respondents said that Hamas agreed to sign a deal of prisoners exchange at this particular time to secure an Israeli commitment not to assassinate Hamas leaders if they leave Damascus; 40.6% said that Hamas agreed to the deal to boost its popularity among Palestinians; 12.6% said it is because of the realities that dominate the Arab World after the Arab Springs 15.9% said it is because the PLO submitted a bid to UN asking for a full recognition of the Palestinian State.
• 33.1% of respondents supported conducing presidential elections despite the Palestinian division; 62.5% rejected
• 78% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 35.3% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 10.1% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
• 32.8% of respondents supported conducing legislative elections despite the Palestinian division; 61.4% rejected.
• 78.4% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 36.5% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 10.2% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
• If PLC elections are to be conducted, 43.4% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 12.3% expected the winning of Hamas.
• 45.8% of respondents supported conducing municipality and local council elections despite the Palestinian division; 47.5% rejected
• 80.9% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming municipality and local council elections. From among those who said they will participate, 32.2% said that they will give their votes to Fateh’s candidates, 10.5% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates and 7% said they will give their votes to the representative of their family or clan.
• 48.2% of respondents believed that if elections are conducted in the Palestinian Territories at the present time, they will be fair and unbiased.
• 30% of respondents said that the current political, security and economic circumstances compel them to desire emigrating.
• 36.8% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
• 53.3% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
• 64.8% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.
• As for political affiliation, respondents gave the following results:

  People’s Party	%1.0
  Democratic Front	0.8%
  Islamic Jihad	1.5%
  Fateh	37.1%
  Hamas	10.1%
  Fida	0.1%
  Popular Front	3.0%
  Palestinian National Initiative	%0.4
  I am an independent nationalist	7.3%
  I am an independent Islamist	3.7%
  None of the above	33.4%
  Others	1.5%

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