Background

A reconciliation agreement was signed in Doha under Qatari auspices between President Mahmoud Abbas and Mr. Khalid Mishal but the agreement has not been implemented despite the fact that it was signed more than two months ago. Among the precepts of the agreement is the formation of a national reconciliatory government from among the independent intellectual experts headed by Mahmoud Abbas whose mission is to facilitate presidential and legislative elections and which would begin the restoration of Gaza. Such government has not been formed yet and both Fateh and Hamas lay the blame on each other for the failure so far to implement the reconciliation agreement and to achieve the formation of a national unity government

The Government of Dr. Salam Fayyad revealed a deficit in the budget of the Palestinian Authority (PA) which exceeds one billion dollars and declared that some procedures are going to be implemented to reduce the deficit.

The Results

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 44 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 6-8 April 2012. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 44 undertakes Palestinian public opinion in the emerging political realities on the Palestinian scene including the Palestinian reconciliation and the possibilities of the implementation of the Doha agreement. This poll also undertakes the economic situation in the Palestinian territories, the possibility of conducting presidential, legislative and city council elections in addition to the political affiliations of Palestinian people.

The sample included 1361 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 800 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 2.7% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

The General Results:

• 31.6% of respondents believed that the Doha agreement which was signed between President Mahmoud Abbas and Mr. Khalid Mishal to end the Palestinian division will succeed; 61.3% believed that it will fail.
• 31.7% of respondents believed that the Doha agreement which was signed between President Mahmoud Abbas and Mr. Khalid Mishal to end the Palestinian division is possible to implement; 62.1% believed that it is not.
• 38% saw that Hamas is the responsible party for deferring the implementation of the reconciliation agreement which was signed between Fateh and Hamas in Doha; 12.3 % saw that Fateh is the responsible party
• 59.7% of respondents believed that some Arab countries seek preventing the implementation of the Doha agreement
• 37.9% of respondents believed that Hamas is the part which benefits most from deferring the implementation of the reconciliation agreement; 16.3% believed Fateh is the party which benefits most
• 35.9% of respondents believed that Hamas is not concerned with implementing the reconciliation agreement while 10.4% believed that it is Fateh which is not concerned.
• 38.1% of respondents said that they are optimistic towards the prospects of implementing the reconciliation agreement in the near future; 57.2% said that they are pessimistic.
• 43.3% of respondents believed that the sides of the Palestinian dialogue, particularly Fateh and Hamas, are not concerned with ending the Palestinian division
• 58.9% of respondents believed that a successful implementation of the reconciliation agreement will influence them personally in a positive way.
• 41.1% of respondents believed that deferring the implementation of the reconciliation agreement is the result of some decision makers’ endeavor to achieve personal interests, 33.7% believed that it is the result of decision makers’ endeavors to achieve certain interests for their parties and political movements, 20.1% believed that it is the result of endeavors to achieve regional interests.
• 13% of respondents believed that the delay in the implementation of the reconciliation agreement is the result of some Arab pressure on some Palestinian parties, 25.1% believed that the delay is the result of regional pressure, 25.7% believed that it is the result of the factional interests of Hamas and Fateh, 8.7% believed that it is the result of personal economic interests, and 22.9% believed that it is the result of personal political interests.
• 40.9% of respondents believed that the implementation of the Palestinian reconciliation agreement will speed and support the peace process; 34.6% believed that it will hinder and delay the peace process.
• 57.5% of respondents said that the most capable procedure to end the Palestinian division is for Palestinian people to go down to the streets and to hold sit ins in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, 21.2% said that the most capable procedure is pressure exerted by the Palestinian movements and organizations, 4.7% said it is pressure exerted by trade unions, and 8.7% said it is pressure exerted by civil society institutions.
• 64.4% of respondents said that the most powerful method to end the Palestinian division comes from pressure exerted by the Palestinian public, 15.7% said that it comes from Arab political pressure, and 17.2% said that it comes from foreign political pressure.
• 25.4% of respondents believed that the Palestinian reconciliation can only be achieved by Palestinian internal dialogue; 11.8% said that it can only be achieved by some intervention from Arab countries to bring together the two points of view of Fateh and Hamas.
• 33% of respondents believed that the “Arab Spring” will speed up the Palestinian reconciliation.
• 13.3% of respondents believed that the “Arab Spring” serves Fateh better in helping her to achieve her conditions to end the Palestinian division; 24.5% believed that the “Arab Spring” serves Hamas better.
• 69.6% of respondents believed that the surrounding Arab and international circumstances necessitate achieving reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas.
• 79.9% of respondents are in favor of a national reconciliation government formed from among experts as stated in the Doha agreement.
• 11.3% of respondents believed that it is Fateh that hinders the formation of a national reconciliation government: 38.2% believed that it is Hamas
• In order for the national reconciliation to succeed, 6.5% preferred that the reconciliation government be formed from persons belonging to Fateh and Hamas, 56% preferred a government formed from qualified independent persons, and 33.5% preferred a government formed from qualified persons from Fateh and Hamas.
• According to the points of view of respondents, it is possible to reduce the deficit that the Palestinian National Authority suffers from by:
  • 38.6% Giving early retirement to some employees
  • 9% Increasing taxes and imposing new taxes
  • 61.2% Going back to peace negotiations so that the PA can get aids from foreign countries
  • 88.1% Asking the Arab countries to pay their dues to the PA
• Dr. Salam Fayyad’s government announced a series of rough measures to curb the deficit in the general budget. The respondents’ support to these measures were as follows:
  • 9.6% Raising income tax
  • 39.2% Early retirement to employees who spent more than 15 years in their jobs
  • 23.4% Limiting new employments
  • 76.1% Regulating the appointment of councilors according to the new civil service law
  • 87.5% Regulating the use of government vehicles
  • 85.2% Reducing travel allowances and travel per diem
  • 52.3% Stopping supervision allowances and allowances given to hazardous jobs
• Respondents believed that increasing the income tax on the private sector according to the new financial policy of Dr. Salam Fayyad’s government will lead to the following:
  • 26.5% Increasing investment
  • 63.4% Drainage of funds outside
  • 61.2% Increase in tax revenues
  • 76.8% Increase in unemployment
• According to respondents the minimum wage in Palestine must be 2386 NIS. Responses ranged between 1000 NIS and 3000 NIS.
• 28.4% of respondents considered themselves optimistic; 67.2% considered themselves pessimistic.
• 79.9% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 39.7% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 10.5% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
• Respondents were asked to write the name of the person whom they give their votes to in case presidential elections are conducted and they are given open choice. They said they will give their votes to:
  • 41.3% Mahmoud Abbas
  • 15.9% Marwan Bargouthi
  • 8.8% Ismael Hanyia
  • 5.0% Salam Fayyad
  • 3.1% Sa’ib Erikat
• In case presidential elections are conducted and a list of candidates is given to respondents, they said they will give their votes to
  • 42.0% Mahmoud Abbas
  • 18.3% Marwan Bargouthi
  • 9.7% Ismael Hanyia
  • 5.4% Salam Fayyad
  • 3.2% Sa’ib Erikat
• In case presidential elections are held and Mr. Mahmoud Abbas does not run and a list of candidates is given to respondents, they said they will give their votes to
  • 40.8% Marwan Bargouthi
  • 10.9% Salam Fayyad
  • 9.4% Ismael Hanyia
  • 7.1% Sa’ib Erikat
  • 2.9% Khalid Mishal
• 83.3% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 42% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 11.9% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
• If PLC elections are to be conducted, 47.7% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 10.9% expected the winning of Hamas.
• 84.3% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming municipality and local council elections. From among those who said they will participate, 34.9% said that they will give their votes to Fateh’s candidates, 11.3% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates and 10.1% said they will give their votes to the representative of their family or clan.
• 51.2% of respondents believed that if elections are conducted in the Palestinian Territories at the present time, they will be fair and unbiased.
• 16.3% of respondents believed that Hamas refused to allow the Central Elections Committee to register voters in the Gaza Strip because Hamas fears that it will not win in the coming elections; 12.4% said that they refused to register voters because, they do not desire to achieve national reconciliation, and 53.9% said that Hamas refused to register voters for both of the above reasons.
• 40.3% of respondents said that the current political, security and economic circumstances compel them to desire emigrating.
• 50.2% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
• 68% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
• 75.8% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.
• 40 As for political affiliation, respondents gave the following results:

  People’s Party	0.7%
  Democratic Front	0.8%
  Islamic Jihad	2.4%
  Fateh	39.8%
  Hamas	10.9%
  Fida	0.1%
  Popular Front	3.2%
  Palestinian National Initiative	0.6%
  I am an independent nationalist	7.9%
  I am an independent Islamist	3.1%
  None of the above	29.7%
  Others	0.6%

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