Public Opinion Poll in the West Bank and Gaza - Local Elections, Internal Violence & Crime and Weapon Possession and Enforcement
By Arab World for Research and Development
July 30, 2016

The following are highlights from AWRAD’s most recent national poll in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted 10-12 July 2016, sample size 1,200. For the full results, please refer to www.awrad.org.

Stagnation: A simple majority (a higher rate in the West Bank) reports that security has diminished. Economically, a plurality in the West Bank states that their family’s situation has remained the same as a year ago, while a majority in Gaza states that their situation has deteriorated. Correspondingly, a majority of Palestinians believes that Palestine is currently heading in the wrong direction. Overall, the data reflects stagnancy in popular sentiments. Compared with national surveys from the previous two years, a growing number of respondents, and in some instances a majority, believes that things are not changing; neither improving nor worsening. Nevertheless, a simple majority of respondents remains optimistic about the future.

Internal Violence & Crime: There has been a notable spike in internal violence and crime in recent months that has negatively impacted the lives of average Palestinians. West Bank respondents attribute events to moral and social decay within Palestinian society, followed by an inability of PA security forces to enforce the rule of law, combined with weak economic growth and declining social services. Gaza respondents, however, identify frustration with economic and social circumstances as the primary cause.

Weapon Possession & Enforcement: Palestinians, particularly in the West Bank, are split in their evaluation of the security agencies’ response to recent events with an overwhelming majority in both the West Bank and Gaza of the belief that the PA and its security agencies should impose harsher measures to deal with private weapon possession.

Local Elections: Half of all respondents are aware that the PA has declared that local elections will be conducted in the West Bank on October 8, 2016. A simple majority plans to vote, with the remainder undecided or planning not to vote.

West Bank & Local Elections: If Hamas - which now says that it will participate - does not run in the local elections, a third of West Bank respondents state that they will not vote.

Gaza & Local Elections: A majority of Gaza respondents support the conduct of local elections in Gaza, simultaneous with those in the West Bank. If local elections are not conducted in Gaza on October 8, a simple majority of Gazans says they would hold Hamas responsible.

Political Parties & Local Elections: A simple majority of West Bank respondents say they are uncertain who they will vote for or that they will not vote in scheduled October local elections. In Gaza, the number of undecided is only half that of the West Bank. Among those who intend to vote, a Fatah list is currently the most popular, followed by a Hamas list.

Support for Presidential & Parliamentary Elections: A majority of Palestinians continue to support the immediate conduct of presidential and legislative elections.

Political Leadership: With President Abbas indicating his intent to retire, Marwan is the preferred presidential candidate in a presidential contest. Ismail Haniyeh is the second most popular choice, followed by Mohammad Dahlan, who derives his support almost exclusively from Gaza.

Fatah Leaders: Among Fatah leaders, Marwan Barghouti remains the first choice of respondents followed by Dahlan, Saeb Eraikat, Majed Faraj Jibril Rajoub and Naser al Qidwa.

Hamas Leaders: Ismael Haniyeh currently tops Khaled Mesha’al as the preferred choice amongst Hamas figures in a presidential contest.

To View the Full Result as PDF

http://www.miftah.org