Palestinian Public Opinion Poll
By Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research
October 02, 2004
New Page 4
AFTER FOUR
YEARS OF INTIFADA, AN OVERWHELMING SENSE OF INSECURITY PREVAILS AMONG
PALESTINIANS LEADING TO HIGH LEVEL OF SUPPORT FOR BOMBING AND ROCKET ATTACKS ON
ONE HAND AND TO HIGH LEVLES OF DEMAND FOR MUTUAL CESSATION OF VIOLENCE AND
QUESTIONING OF THE EFFECTIVNESS OF ARMED ATTACKS ON THE OTHER
These are the results of the
latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research
in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between September 23 and 26, 2004. Total
size of the sample is 1319 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly
selected locations. Margin of error is 3% and rejection rate 2%.
Findings of the poll show high
level of Palestinian frustration with national conditions as well as internal
political conditions. There is an overwhelming sense of personal and family
insecurity and serious concerns about the future in light of the perceived
domestic power struggle and the perceived inability of the Palestinian Authority
(PA) to control the internal situation. Doubts exist about the seriousness of
the PA in holding elections, implementing reform, or dealing with corruption;
the public therefore views PA performance in very negative terms. Facing
entrenched occupation and very difficult security conditions, the public finds
itself in the middle of a contradiction. On the one hand, it gives big support
for the bombing attack in Beer Shiva in early September and for rocket attacks
against Israel and its settlements and increasingly views the Israeli
disengagement plan as victory for armed resistance. On the other hand, it shows
an increased and wide spread support for mutual cessation of violence and for
the Egyptian Initiative; it also raises questions about the effectiveness of
armed attacks in confronting Israeli settlement expansion. Facing the
deteriorating domestic situation, the public seems to be clear on what it wants:
fundamental political reform and the resignation of the current government of
Ahmad Qurai’ (Abu Ala’).
SUMMARY OF RESULTS:
(1) After Four Years of
Intifada
- 86% of the Palestinians
feel a loss of personal security and safety. This percentage stood at 77%
only three months ago. Despite this feeling, the largest percentage (41%)
views unemployment and the spread of poverty as the most important problem
confronting the Palestinians today followed by the continuation of the
occupation and its daily practices (35%), the spread of corruption and lack
of reform (15%), and finally, internal chaos (8%).
- Despite widespread support
for bombing attacks (77% for the attack at Beer Shiva) and despite the
belief of 64% that armed confrontations have helped the Palestinians achieve
their national rights in ways that negotiations could not, the overwhelming
majority (83%) wants mutual cessation of violence and a large percentage
(59%) says it will support taking measures to prevent attacks on Israel when
an agreement is reached on a mutual cessation of violence.
- Moreover, despite the
widespread support for armed attacks against Israelis, only 48% see them
effective in confronting Israeli settlement expansion and 49% support
nonviolent steps (such as a ceasefire and a return to negotiations) instead.
If a peace agreement is signed by the two sides, three quarters would
support reconciliation between the Palestinian and Israeli peoples.
- From among a list of ten
controversial intifada practices, the poll found that four are unacceptable
to more than 90% of the public, three are acceptable to more than three
quarters, and three are acceptable to a percentage ranging between a quarter
to half of the public. In the first group, the unacceptable practices, we
find the following: assassinations or attempted assassinations of pubic
figures or journalists, the burning of PA headquarters or the offices of its
security services, shootings in demonstrations and funerals, and the
kidnapping of foreigners working or residing in Palestinian areas. In the
second group, the acceptable practices, we find the following: firing of
rockets into Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip, firing of rockets from
Beit Hanoun into Israel, and the “liquidation” of Palestinians accused of
being Israeli spies. Practices that have some support, even if limited are:
the kidnapping of officials accused of corruption (50% support), the
appearance of masked men in pubic streets and squares (34% support), and the
organization of armed marches in public streets and squares (28%). It is
interesting to note that while firing rockets from Beit Hanoun receives
support from a majority of the Palestinians (75%), 59% of the residents of
Beit Hanoun reject this intifada practice.
(2) The Egyptian Initiative
and the Israeli Withdrawal from the Gaza Strip
- Support for the Egyptian
initiative increases from 64% last June to 69% in this survey while
opposition decreases from 34% to 27%. Support for sending Egyptian security
trainers and personnel to the Gaza Strip increases from 53% to 57% during
the same period. Support for the unification of the Palestinian security
services under the control of the cabinet reaches 79% and support for the
appointment of an empowered minister of interior reaches 85%. Moreover, 70%
of the public supports the Egyptian efforts to arrange for a ceasefire
through a dialogue with the different factions.
- The percentage of those
who view Sharon’s Plan as victory for armed struggle increased from 66% in
March to 74% in this poll. But if the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza is
complete, a majority of 54% would oppose the continuation of violence from
the Gaza Strip. A majority of 64% (compared to 59% last June) is worried
about the possibility of an internal Palestinian power struggle in the Gaza
Strip after the Israeli withdrawal and only 25% (compared to 30% last June)
believe the PA has a high capacity to control the situation after the
Israeli withdrawal.
(3) Voter Registration and
Voting Intentions
- 39% say they have already
registered to vote and 61% say they have not. Two thirds of those who have
not registered say they intend to register. If this proves correct, a total
of 80% would be expected to register if given sufficient time to do so. The
current low level of registration may be due to the fact that only 56%
believe that the PA is serious about holding national elections in the near
future. If national or local elections take place in the near future, 72%
say they will participate in them and 25% say they will not.
- If local elections were to
take place in the near future and if they were fair, 25% (compared to 34%
last June) say they believe Fateh candidates would win them and 27% (as in
last June) say they believe Hamas and Islamic Jihad candidates would win
them. 16% say the winners would be independent candidates and 13% say they
would be candidates of families. As to how the respondents themselves would
behave, 22% (compared to 28% last June) say they will vote for Hamas and
Islamic Jihad candidates, 21% (compared to 26% last June) for Fateh’s, 16%
for independents, and 14% for family candidates. In the Gaza Strip, 30% will
vote for Hamas and Islamic Jihad candidates, 18% for Fateh’s, 14% for
independents, and 10% for family candidates.
(4) Gaza’s Chaos and
Disturbances
- 54% (compared to 63% last
March) hold Israel responsible for the internal chaos and anarchy and 36%
(compared to 25% last March) believe it is the responsibility of the PA
leadership and security services.
- Gaza’s July disturbances
can be traced to internal factors in the eyes of 37% of the public and to
external factors in the eyes of 18%. In the Gaza Strip, the belief in the
internal causes reaches 43% and in the external causes 13%. 41% believe that
the disturbances had internal and external causes at the same time.
- A majority of 62% explains
the disturbances as internal power struggle while only 30% view them as a
call for reform.
(5) Reform and the
Performance of Abu Ala’s Government and other PA Institutions
- An overwhelming majority
of 93% supports inside and outside calls for fundamental political reforms
in the PA. But only 51% of the public believe the PA is serious about
implementing the reforms called for by the Palestinian Legislative Council
(PLC). The largest percentage (42%) believes that the PA (with its
government, leadership and ministries according to 30% and President Arafat
himself according to 12%) is the one that impedes the process of reform
while 39% see Israeli occupation as the party responsible for impeding
reform.
- Percentage calling for the
resignation of Abu Ala’s government increases from 39% last March to 49% in
this poll. 39% do not want him to resign. An overwhelming majority believes
that he did not succeed in achieving what he promised when he was first
appointed.
- A majority refuses to give
positive rating to the performance of all PA institutions. The least
positive rating goes to the PLC (30%), the cabinet (33%), security services
(35%), judicial authority and courts (39%), and the PA presidency (42%). But
the opposition forces receives the highest level of positive evaluation
(53%)
- 88% believe that
corruption exists in the institutions of the PA, and among those two thirds
believe that this corruption will remain the same or increase in the future.
Corruption can be found in PA ministries and offices according to 84% of the
public, in the PLC according to 73%, and in the PA presidency according to
64%.
- Positive evaluation of the
status of democracy in the Palestinian areas does not exceed 29%, but two
thirds believe that people today can criticize the PA without fear.
(6) Popularity of Yasir
Arafat, Marwan Barghouti, and Political Factions
- In a race for the office
of the president involving Yasir Arafat, Marwan Barghouti, and Mahmud Zahhar,
Arafat receives the vote of 35%, Zahhar 15%, and Barghouti 13%. 25% say they
will not vote for any of the three. PSR selected the three names after
asking the public to provide us with the names of their preferred candidates
in an open question in its June poll. The names of the candidates who
received 2% or more were used to form a closed list of presidential
candidates in this poll. In the race for the office of a vice president,
Marwan Barghouti came first with 22%, followed by Mahmud Zahhar and Haidar
Abdul Shafi with 12% each, Saeb Erekat with 6%, Mohammad Dahlan with 4%,
Ahmad Quari with 3% and Mahmud Abbas with 2%. The popularity of Fateh stands
at 29% and Hamas at 22%. Fateh popularity stood at 28% and Hamas at 24%
three months ago.
- The poll found major
differences between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Hamas’ popularity
dropped in the West Bank from 21% last June to 17% in this poll while
remaining stable at about 30% in the Gaza Strip. Fateh’s popularity on the
other hand increased in the West Bank from 28% to 31% and dropped in the
Gaza Strip form 27% to 24% during the same period. The total support for all
Islamists (Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and independent Islamists) dropped in the
West Bank and the Gaza Strip from 35% to 32%.
This PSR
survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in
Ramallah. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki or Ayoub
Mustafa, at tel 02-296 4933 or e-mail pcpsr@pcpsr.org
http://www.miftah.org
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