Poll # 20: An Opinion Poll Concerning of Presidential Election
By Birzeit University Development Studies Program
December 07, 2004
- Number of field
researchers: 120
- Margin of error (+ or -):
3%
- Sample size: 1198
Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip
- Number of locations in the
sample: 75
Date of
publication: 6th of December, 2004
Results of An Opinion Poll
- A majority (87%) support
the timely conduct of presidential election, and (83%) intend to vote.
- Equal votes for Marwan
Barghouti (46%) and Mahmoud Abbas (44%).
- Musatafa Barghouti, the
only viable opposition candidate is third (7%)
- (24%) of the respondents
are (undecided), more in the West Bank (27%) than in Gaza (19%)
- Compared with previous
polling data, the result show a significant increase in the popularity of
Mahmoud Abbas and a decline in the popularity of Marwan Barghouthi
- West Bank Refugee camps
and villages, women, the less educated, youth and lower income respondents
tend to be more supportive of Marwan Barghouti.
- Gaza residents, men, the
more educated, urban, dwellers, respondents with middle and higher income
tend to be more supportive of Abbas.
- Support for Mahmoud Abbas
and Marwan Barghouthi disaggregated for socio-economic variables:
|
Marwan Barghouthi |
Mahmoud Abbas |
No decision |
Gender |
Women
|
Men
|
--- |
Age group |
18-29
years
|
Above
50 years |
Above
50 years |
Education |
Less
educated |
More
educated |
--- |
Income |
Poor |
Rich
|
--- |
Area |
West Bank |
Gaza |
West Bank |
Location |
Villages |
Cities |
--- |
Labor sector |
--- |
Non-governmental
&
governmental |
Private
& governmental |
- Support for Mustafa
Barghouthi increases among women, West Bank (refugee camp and village)
residents.
- (41% ) feel that Mahmoud
Abbas is the (most suitable) candidate; (38%) feel that Marwan Barghouti is
the (most suitable), while (5%) feel that Mustafa is the (most suitable).
- (64%) expect that Mahmoud
Abbas will win, while (22%) expect that Marwan Barghouti will win.
- A boycott of election by
Islamist groups has no significant impact on participation; only 17% will
not participate.
- No significant differences
in attitudes among respondents registered for the election and those
unregistered, among both groups Fatah gains the highest votes; Marwan
Barghouthi and Mahmoud Abbas receive almost equal votes. Support for Hamas
is also almost equal among the registered and the unregistered.
- "Using the Public Record”
to allow the registered and unregistered Palestinians to vote will
significantly increase participation in Gaza (75% - 88%), that might lead to
more votes to Mahmoud Abbas
- Mahmoud Abbas receives 48%
of Fatah supporters’ votes and 18% of Hamas’s votes, Marwan Barghouthi
receives 31% of Fatah supporters’ votes and 51% of Hamas’s votes.
Independents voted equally for both candidates.
Support for candidates disaggregation by political affiliation:
|
Fatah |
Hamas |
Independent
|
Marwan Barghouthi |
31% |
51% |
22% |
Mahmoud Abbas |
48% |
18% |
20% |
- Fatah gains significant
support – from 29% during September 2004, to 45% now.
- Support for Hamas is at
20%, 4% less than its support during September 2004.
- If election for Municipal
and Legislative councils took place, Fatah would get 47% of the vote
compared with 30% for the Islamist block and 3% for Leftist block.
To View the Full opinion Poll,
please visit the official Web-site of Birzeit University (Development Studies
Program)
http://home.birzeit.edu/dsp/opinionpolls/poll20/
http://www.miftah.org
|