Coming weeks will reveal whether jewish state is based on rule of law or rule of religion

After months of routine posturing, run-of-the-mill demonstrations and traditional political bargaining, the debate over disengagement has suddenly taken a very dangerous turn. With Masada-style defiance, the anti-disengagement forces have crossed national red lines in an overt and startling manner that could potentially undermine Israeli democracy. Three sacred cows have been brazenly challenged - the rule of law, the Israeli Army and even the memory of the Holocaust. At risk are not only Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plans for withdrawal from Gaza, but also the stability of Israel's civil foundations and the future unity of the country.

While the implications of the current escalation are profound, many observers believe that the battle being waged against the Gaza disengagement should be viewed as the first salvo in the bigger war against withdrawal from the West Bank. Along with the tremendous anguish felt by the settlers over the forced evacuation from their homes, the massive defiance in Gaza, it seems, is a tactical measure designed to thwart any future withdrawal from the West Bank.

The settlers don't deny that the train of disengagement has left the station. Sharon's determined commitment to implement the plan, and the consistent and overwhelming support for it among Israelis (64 percent according to a Dec. 17 Maariv poll) means that the government's Gaza decision will not be overturned. The real fight, then, is to make certain that the train stops here. No more disengagement beyond Gaza, no more Jewish land for Palestinian peace. For the settlers who continue to hold onto the dream of a Greater Israel, Gaza will serve as a sacrificial offering to underscore how painful any additional moves will be.

Two weeks ago, Pinhas Wallerstein, head of the Binyamin Regional Council, called upon his fellow settlers to disobey the "transfer law" even at the price of going to prison. Since then, much stocktaking has occurred, on all sides. The heightened attempts by settlers at influencing public opinion - wearing orange Stars of David recalling the yellow stars imposed by the Nazis, registering thousands of soldiers who will refuse to carry out evacuation orders - have shocked and frightened the general public. The outraged reaction of so many Israelis quickly conveyed to the settler leadership that extreme measures were more likely to reduce support for their cause rather than gain sympathy.

Given the enormous task before them, the army is carefully contemplating its moves. The chief of staff has made it clear that there will be no gray areas concerning refusal of orders, and only those soldiers with immediate family members living in the evacuated settlements will be relieved of duty. Police Commissioner Moshe Karadi, whose forces will join with the army in carrying out the evacuation, says it will be harder than Yamit: "The evacuation will be hard to execute, but if it is not executed - this will be dangerous for Israeli democracy."

Both the army and attorney general's office are more concerned about the explosive potential of the extremist minority in the settlements than about a mass uprising. Disturbing as it is that an elected leader like Wallerstein has called on the public to break the law, it is widely believed that deep psychological and emotional distress experienced by the settlers will not translate, by and large, into violent behavior and disregard for the law. Officials believe that the settler community fully understands that large-scale disobedience will bring the country to the brink of disaster. Indeed, a poll last week in Yediot Aharonot showed that 74 percent of the settler population is opposed to using violence, though 52 percent said they will resist evacuation and 42 percent are prepared to break the law.

In recent days, settler leaders including Wallerstein have echoed these sentiments, by declaring their intention not to resort to violence, while maintaining that passive resistance will be employed. According to one settler who intends to block the evacuation, "they will have to drag us out." Vowing to be at the settlers' side are 12 members of the Knesset, led by National Religious Party leader Effie Eitam, who have committed to "prevent with our bodies the immoral and inhumane expulsion of thousands of settlers who are heroes and pioneers ... while respecting democracy and without committing any violence or displaying hatred or disrespect toward security forces."

When the day finally arrives, the anti-disengagement forces are counting on tens of thousands of people to join the struggle and physically resist evacuation. They will gather at junctions in the Gush Katif area and on roads leading to it, so that thousands of troops will be needed to clear them away. If scenes from the recent sit-in at the Sa-Nur settlement - where mothers were dragged off with infants in their arms - are any indication, the evacuation will not be easy on any level. One defiant settler asked: "What will they do to us, set up detention camps and put thousands of people in them? I say, already put me in prison today, because I will be there despite the evacuation-compensation bill that prohibits it. I want to see the State of Israel arresting tens of thousands of people and shoving them into giant prison camps in the Negev."

At the same time, the extremist fringe is a fuse waiting to blow. "Numerically insignificant," one Efrat resident explained, "this small and highly dangerous element does not accept the authority of the Council of Settlers. They are settlers within the settlers; they live in outposts, they are anti-establishment and no one has control over them. They are armed, they know how to use their arms, and they are not averse to using them."

Reacting to the snowballing developments, Sharon said in a Cabinet meeting in late December 2004 that he views calls

for dissension seriously, and warned: "Let nobody dare to lift a hand against a soldier or policeman." Added Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz: "We will enforce the law with determination and without compromise. Attempts to hurt the security establishment must stop."

But after losing an important Knesset Law Committee vote on the evacuation and compensation bill, which included strong punitive clauses against individuals who resist or disrupt evacuation by force, the premier's leverage is shaky at best. Bentzi Lieberman, Chairman of the Council of Settlers, called the measures "draconian" and denounced the government's legislative conduct as a "gang rape of democracy."

In all, the essential nature of the Jewish state will be revealed in the coming weeks and months, as a fundamental question is answered: What represents the highest authority, the rule of law or the rule of religion? The position of the mainstream settlement rabbis, who supported Wallerstein's call, has never been more important. Professor Shlomo Kaniel, a lecturer at Bar Ilan University's School of Education and a resident of the settlement of Neveh Tzuf, defines the ensuing confrontation as a momentous clash of values. "On the settlers' scale of values, settlement in the Land of Israel is a central ethos that encompasses all spheres of their life; a value that overshadows all other values." The test of authority is upon us, says one very concerned settler. If the rabbis ultimately give a green light to fight the disengagement with violence, "Heaven help us."