Strong Majorities Support Extending the “Quite”, Collecting Arms in the Gaza Strip, and Absorbing Armed Groups in the PA; But Support for a Permanent Settlement Along the Clinton Parameters and the Taba Talks Drops

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between December 6-8, 2005. Total size of the sample is 1316 adults interviewed face to face in 118 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.
For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

(1) “Quite,” Collection of Arms, and Absorption of Armed Groups

• 80% support, and 18% oppose, the extension of the “quite” period which ends at the end of December 2005. Moreover, a similar percentage (75%) supports, and 23% oppose, the current ceasefire. Percentages of support for extending the “quite” period and for the ceasefire are larger in the Gaza Strip (86% and 77% respectively) than in the West Bank (77% and 74% respectively).
• 47% support, and 51% oppose, collection of arms from armed groups in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Here too, support for collection of arms is greater in the Gaza Strip (54%) than in the West Bank (43%). But when it comes to collection of arms from armed groups in the Gaza Strip only, overall support increases to 63% and opposition drops to 34%. In the Gaza Strip, support for collection of arms from Gazan armed groups reaches 68% compared to 61% in the West Bank.
• 82% support and 17% oppose the absorption of members of armed groups from Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Fateh in the Palestinian security services so that they would become part of the PA. Support for this measure reaches 84% in the Gaza Strip compared to 80% in the West Bank.
• While 83% of the Palestinians view the Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip as victory for armed resistance and while 68% believe that armed confrontations have so far helped Palestinians achieve national rights in ways that negotiations could not, the percentage of those supporting armed attacks from the Gaza Strip does not exceed 36% while 60% oppose it. Opposition to such attacks increases to 66% in the Gaza Strip compared to 57% in the West Bank. Moreover, 61% of all Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip oppose, and 33% support bombing attacks or the launching of rockets from the Gaza Strip. In the Gaza Strip, opposition to such attacks increases to 68% compared to 58% in the West Bank.

(2) Post Disengagement Environment

• 52% see the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip as the beginning of the end of Israeli occupation and the establishment of a Palestinian state; 46% do not agree with that. Moreover, 59% expect, and 36% do not expect, Israel to carry out a further unilateral disengagement steps from other areas in the West Bank in the future. But only 42% expect the evacuation of most or some settlements in the West Bank while 45% expect the building of more settlements.
• 45% evaluate the situation in the Gaza Strip after disengagement as better than before but 28% see it unchanged and 25% see it worse. Specifically, while only 31% say that the Gaza Strip has become free and open, 55% say it has become a big prison and 11% see no change.
• 40% evaluate the performance of the PA in the Gaza Strip in the aftermath of the Israeli withdrawal as better than before. But 34% say that PA performance has not changed and 21% say it has become worse.

(3) Rafah Crossing’s Agreement

• 41% support, and 56% oppose, the Rafah Crossing’s agreement. The same applies to the presence of the Europeans at the crossing. Despite this, 58% say the agreement strengthens Palestinian sovereignty; 37% disagrees with that.
• Only one third expects, and 62% do not expect, Israel to continue to implement the agreement.
• An overwhelming majority (85%) expects and 13% do not expect, Israel to close the Rafah crossing if bombing attacks or rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip.

(4) Peace Process and Permanent Settlement

• Palestinian support for a permanent settlement agreement similar to that of the December 2000 Clinton Parameters, the January 2001 Taba Talks, and the Geneva Initiative drops from 54% one year ago to 46% in this poll.
• Support for the item on final borders -- which would be based on the 1967 lines except for about 3% of the West Bank which would be exchanged with an Israeli territory of equal size—drops from 63% to 55%.
• Support for the item on refugees – which would be based on UNGA resolution 194 while giving refugees five different options for permanent residency with return to Israel being subject to Israeli decision—drops from 46% to 40%.
• Support for the item on Jerusalem – which would make East Jerusalem capital of the Palestinian state but would put Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty – drops from 44% to 33%.
• Support for the item on the establishment of a Palestinian state that has no army drops from 27% to 20%.
• Support for the item on security arrangements – which would allow Israel to use Palestinian airspace and maintain two early warning stations in Palestinian territories – drops from 53% to 43%.
• Support for the item on ending the conflict once the permanent status agreement is implemented – which would allow neither side to make further claims and would require both sides to acknowledge that Palestine and Israel are the homelands of their peoples – drops from 69% to 64%.

(5) Bombing Attacks in Amman’s Hotels

• 88% of the Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip oppose, and 9% support, the bombing attacks that took place in Amman hotels last November.
• 77% see these attacks as criminal operations denounced by Islam while 10% see them as martyrdom operations supported by Islam.

(6) Corruption, Security, and Democracy

• 86% believe corruption exists in the PA; among those, 58% expect corruption to increase or remain the same in the future.
• Only 35% say they and their families feel safe and secure and 65% do not feel that.
• 35% give Palestinian democracy a positive evaluation