NEC's Monthly Bulletin on Palestinian Perceptions Towards Politics and Economics
By Near East Consulting
November 24, 2007
I. Methodology
During the period 12-15 November, 2007, and immediately after the large Fateh rally in
the Gaza Strip which ended in the death of seven Palestinians, Near East Consulting
(NEC) conducted a phone survey of over 1200 randomly selected Palestinians in the
West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and Jerusalem of which 1057 were successfully completed.
It is worth noting that the margin of error is +/- 3% with a 95% confidence level.
II. Main findings
- The internal security problem is becoming the main concern of the Palestinian
people, more so than the economy;
- Feeling of insecurity dropped by 10% over the past six weeks. Whereas 53% of the
respondents said that t they felt insecure in Sep 2007, the feeling of insecurity reached
63% in November;
- The stabilization in the poverty figures in the oPt area consequence of the
improvement of the economic conditions in the West Bank as opposed to the Gaza
Strip which are probably related to the emphasis exerted by the international
community to support the West Bank government as opposed to the Gaza Strip's
government;
- Palestine TV is gaining more support at the expense of Al-Jazeera;
- Al-Quds newspaper is trusted slightly more than Al-Jazeera;
- 62% of the respondents now say that the legitimate government is the caretaker
government as opposed to 55% six weeks ago;
- Trust in Abu-Mazen reached the highest since the election of Hamas. Whereas 22%
of the respondents gave their trust to Hanieh, 78% gave their trust to Abu-Mazen;
- Although the majority of the Palestinians do not think that any leader can ever take
the place of President Arafat, the most likely choice is Marwan Barghouthi closely
followed by Abu Mazen;
- The vast majority of the Palestinians believe that if Arafat was alive, the problems that
exist between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip would not have happened. They also
believe that the political situation is much more difficult than it is during the time of
Arafat.
- Support for Fateh is on the rise and it reached the highest level since Hamas won the
elections in January 2006;
- As noted below, the majority of the Palestinians (79%) believe that the security
situation in the oPt has worsened since Hamas took over the Gaza Strip. Moreover,
94% think that the economy deteriorated and 87% believe that the general situation
has worsened.
- Support for the Annapolis meeting is slightly less than it was in late September 2007.
Today, 71% of the Palestinians support Palestinian participation as opposed to 76% in
September.
- Still, only 43% believe that it will lead to some progress in the peace process. The
only optimists are the supporters of Fateh where 65% of them believe that Annapolis
will lead to some progress on the peace front.
- The majority (57%) believe that the main beneficiary will be Israel. Only 22% believe
that it will be the Palestinians. Even among Fateh supporters, more of them believe
that Israel will be the main winner there.
- 51% of the respondents say that the issue of Jerusalem is the most important issue in
any final status negotiations (51%) followed by the refugee issue (24%).
- The majority of the Palestinians support a two-state solution and the right of return of
the refugees to their place of origin. As for Jerusalem, 62% of the respondents want
Jerusalem to be shared or split between Palestine and Israel. Only 38% want both
parts of Jerusalem as a capital for the Palestinians state only.
- 72% of the respondents support a peace agreement with Israel. Even 38% of Hamas
supporters support a peace agreement with Israel. The highest support for a peace
settlement with Israel is among supporters of Hamas where 87% of them favor this
view.
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