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Date posted: November 24, 2007
By Near East Consulting

I. Methodology

During the period 12-15 November, 2007, and immediately after the large Fateh rally in the Gaza Strip which ended in the death of seven Palestinians, Near East Consulting (NEC) conducted a phone survey of over 1200 randomly selected Palestinians in the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and Jerusalem of which 1057 were successfully completed.

It is worth noting that the margin of error is +/- 3% with a 95% confidence level.

II. Main findings

  • The internal security problem is becoming the main concern of the Palestinian people, more so than the economy;
  • Feeling of insecurity dropped by 10% over the past six weeks. Whereas 53% of the respondents said that t they felt insecure in Sep 2007, the feeling of insecurity reached 63% in November;
  • The stabilization in the poverty figures in the oPt area consequence of the improvement of the economic conditions in the West Bank as opposed to the Gaza Strip which are probably related to the emphasis exerted by the international community to support the West Bank government as opposed to the Gaza Strip's government;
  • Palestine TV is gaining more support at the expense of Al-Jazeera;
  • Al-Quds newspaper is trusted slightly more than Al-Jazeera;
  • 62% of the respondents now say that the legitimate government is the caretaker government as opposed to 55% six weeks ago;
  • Trust in Abu-Mazen reached the highest since the election of Hamas. Whereas 22% of the respondents gave their trust to Hanieh, 78% gave their trust to Abu-Mazen;
  • Although the majority of the Palestinians do not think that any leader can ever take the place of President Arafat, the most likely choice is Marwan Barghouthi closely followed by Abu Mazen;
  • The vast majority of the Palestinians believe that if Arafat was alive, the problems that exist between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip would not have happened. They also believe that the political situation is much more difficult than it is during the time of Arafat.
  • Support for Fateh is on the rise and it reached the highest level since Hamas won the elections in January 2006;
  • As noted below, the majority of the Palestinians (79%) believe that the security situation in the oPt has worsened since Hamas took over the Gaza Strip. Moreover, 94% think that the economy deteriorated and 87% believe that the general situation has worsened.
  • Support for the Annapolis meeting is slightly less than it was in late September 2007. Today, 71% of the Palestinians support Palestinian participation as opposed to 76% in September.
  • Still, only 43% believe that it will lead to some progress in the peace process. The only optimists are the supporters of Fateh where 65% of them believe that Annapolis will lead to some progress on the peace front.
  • The majority (57%) believe that the main beneficiary will be Israel. Only 22% believe that it will be the Palestinians. Even among Fateh supporters, more of them believe that Israel will be the main winner there.
  • 51% of the respondents say that the issue of Jerusalem is the most important issue in any final status negotiations (51%) followed by the refugee issue (24%).
  • The majority of the Palestinians support a two-state solution and the right of return of the refugees to their place of origin. As for Jerusalem, 62% of the respondents want Jerusalem to be shared or split between Palestine and Israel. Only 38% want both parts of Jerusalem as a capital for the Palestinians state only.
  • 72% of the respondents support a peace agreement with Israel. Even 38% of Hamas supporters support a peace agreement with Israel. The highest support for a peace settlement with Israel is among supporters of Hamas where 87% of them favor this view.

To View the Full Result as PDF (372 KB)

Source: Near East Consulting, November. 2007
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